Offshore betting markets indicate that former President Donald Trump has a considerably greater chance of winning the 2024 presidential race compared to Vice President Kamala Harris, particularly after reaching two-month highs earlier last week.
By Friday at 5 p.m. EDT, Trump’s odds of winning decreased slightly to 64% on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency betting platform. This figure mirrors the odds recorded when President Joe Biden exited the race. Betfair Exchange, the largest peer-to-peer gambling platform in the U.K., gauged that Trump was nearing a “likely win” on its meter that Friday afternoon.
Recent days have seen bettors globally create a wider gap between Trump and Harris’s odds, causing some to speculate that wealthy investors might be influencing the markets, including Polymarket. The platform’s officials are currently investigating these allegations.
Winning Probabilities for Trump and Harris by State
Trump’s odds of victory have been climbing over the last two weeks as Harris’s support in key battleground states has been decreasing. Below are the battleground states identified by Real Clear Politics, which contribute to a total of 93 of the 538 electoral votes.
Understanding Winning Probabilities vs. Vote Margins
Polymarket has clarified in its recent newsletter, “The Oracle,” that a candidate’s winning probability – represented as a percentage – is not the same as the percentage of votes a candidate is likely to receive in a state.
To illustrate this distinction, consider NFL betting odds. BetMGM assigns the Chicago Bears a 56% chance of defeating the Washington Commanders this coming Sunday. Contrarily, the Commanders’ chances stand at 49%. This disparity appears significant until noting that the Bears are merely 1.5-point favorites to win according to BetMGM.
Likewise, as of 5 p.m. EDT Friday, Trump had a 64.1% chance of winning the presidential election according to Polymarket. However, the support differences in battleground states between Trump and Harris largely fall within the margin of error of each respective poll, as aggregated by Real Clear Politics.
Increasing Trump Odds Amid Close Battleground Polling
Do bettors perceive insights that pollsters may be overlooking?
Trump’s chances slightly improved earlier this month following a debate featuring Ohio Sen. JD Vance, his running mate, against Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Last week, Trump’s win probability surged as bettors on Polymarket increased his chances in three critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Comparing Winning Probabilities and Polling: 2020 vs. 2024
Despite the contrasting probabilities and polling, there remains a noticeable difference when comparing this election cycle to the last two.
In recent days, Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election have begun to resemble Biden’s in 2020. However, during that cycle, Biden’s polling within battleground states often exceeded the polling margin of error aggregated by Real Clear Politics.
Bettors Elevate Trump’s Winning Odds Compared to Previous Elections
While the betting odds for Trump and Harris have diverged significantly lately, they are still below where Trump was positioned on the first day of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, Trump’s chances against Biden were above 70% on both Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.
A study published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives in 2004 noted that the frontrunner in betting odds in the month leading up to an election has only lost twice, specifically in 1916 and 1948. The betting markets also incorrectly predicted Trump’s win in 2016.
