2024 Presidential Election Polls: Current Survey Results for Harris vs. Trump on Election Day
With polling places now open across the nation, the competition for the presidency remains highly contested according to the latest national poll results.
Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris find themselves in an extremely tight race as they campaigned vigorously right up until Election Day, seeking to sway voters in crucial swing states. As Americans head to the polls today, their voices will be heard.
Voters are likely to be considering key topics such as the economy, immigration, abortion, and the protection of democracy—issues that have consistently been on Americans’ minds throughout polling.
Here’s what you need to know about the most recent national polling as people make their voting decisions:
Ipsos Poll: Harris with a Slight Edge Over Trump
In the latest Ipsos Core Political poll released Monday, Vice President Harris holds a slim 2-point lead over former President Trump.
This survey, which sampled 1,242 adults, shows Harris ahead with 50% to Trump’s 48% as the election approaches. The poll, conducted over the weekend, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Regarding major issues, 42% of respondents favor Trump’s approach to economic matters and foreign conflicts, while 45% believe he is better suited to handle immigration. On the other hand, 42% think Harris is preferable for healthcare, with 39% stating she is better equipped to manage political extremism and threats to democracy.
While 57% of Americans disapprove of President Joe Biden’s performance, only 48% express discontent with Vice President Harris. When considering favorability ratings, 45% view Harris positively, compared to 42% for Trump. Additionally, Harris’s net favorability stands at -5%, which is better than Trump’s -12% among the general public.
Final TIPP Poll: Trump Leads Slightly Ahead of Harris
The final TIPP Tracking Poll released Tuesday shows Trump narrowly leading Harris by just 0.3 points.
This poll, which surveyed 1,863 likely voters, shows Trump at 48.6% and Harris at 48.3%. Conducted online from Saturday to Monday, it has a margin of error of 2.3 points.
The poll indicates that late-deciding voters typically lean towards the challenger rather than the incumbent, suggesting Trump might benefit from this trend on Election Day.
Marist/PBS/NPR National Poll: Harris Leading Trump
The most recent national poll by Marist, published Monday, shows Harris ahead of Trump by four points.
Among 1,297 likely voters surveyed, 51% expressed support for Harris compared to 47% for Trump, with 2% backing third-party candidates. This result falls outside the poll’s margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.
The poll highlights that Harris has made significant gains among male voters, reducing Trump’s previous stronghold from 16 points to just 4 points (Trump leads 51%-47%). Conversely, Harris maintains a solid lead among female voters at 55%-45%, though her advantage has decreased from 18 points.
Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, noted that while Harris stands a good chance of winning the popular vote, she faces a challenging path to secure 270 votes in the Electoral College. Trump’s campaign is hindered by low favorability ratings among likely voters.
Forbes/HarrisX Poll: Harris and Trump in a Stalemate
The latest Forbes/HarrisX national poll, released late Monday, shows Harris and Trump in a statistical deadlock.
According to this poll, which included 4,520 registered voters, Harris narrowly leads Trump 49%-48%, with 3% opting for third-party choices. When forced to choose exclusively between Harris and Trump, her lead slightly increased to 49%-47%, with 4% still undecided.
Conducted online from October 30 to November 1, this survey has a margin of error of ±1%.
Among the respondents, “inflation and rising prices” emerged as the top concern, chosen by 36%. Immigration and the economy followed closely behind with 32% and 31%, respectively, while abortion was cited by 16% as a major issue.
Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX (independent of Kamala Harris), emphasized that the final outcome will hinge significantly on voter turnout, especially for Trump, who has a history of outperforming polls from previous elections by mobilizing low-propensity voters and winning over those undecided until the last moment.
Understanding Polling Considerations
The margin of error gives insight into the accuracy of how well the survey results reflect the wider population.
A candidate’s advantage is deemed a “statistical tie” if it falls within the margin of error, as noted by the Pew Research Center.
Moreover, research by Pew indicates that many pollsters have adjusted their methodologies following the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where The evaluation of Trump’s performance was largely overlooked.