As the year draws to a close, 2024 is projected to be marked as the hottest year in recorded history, marking a consecutive year of breaking temperature records.

“It’s clear now; 2024 will undoubtedly be the hottest year we’ve seen,” Kristina Dahl, vice president of science at Climate Central, shared with YSL News on Monday. “Having two years of record high temperatures back-to-back signifies we are perilously deviating from a path that could help us avoid the worst outcomes of climate change.”

With consistently high air and ocean temperatures observed globally during the year’s first half, scientists anticipated this year would surpass the previous record.

“The trend has been evident for a while,” noted Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth. “With most data for 2024 already accounted for, it is obvious that this year is significantly warmer compared to 2023.”

Average Daily Air Temperatures 6.5 Feet Above Ground Since 1979:

“Though we are still awaiting December’s final numbers, it’s nearly certain that 2024 will surpass 2023 in average temperatures,” Rohde mentioned. “December would have to be extraordinarily cool to stop 2024 from setting the new record.”

The conclusive findings are set to be published on January 10, with The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, Berkeley Earth, and other agencies coordinating to share results on the same day, according to Rohde.

According to federal records and the World Meteorological Organization, the average temperature from January to November was the highest on record, and December’s temperatures did not change this overall trend.

On December 9, the Copernicus Climate Change Service affirmed it could “virtually guarantee” that 2024 would be the hottest year recorded. As of last Saturday, Dahl noted that global average temperatures were still two-tenths of a degree warmer than in 2023.

A mix of natural fluctuations and human-induced factors, such as greenhouse gas emissions, have driven temperatures up, leading to severe heat waves and intensified hurricanes and floods, which have all been exacerbated by climate change, Dahl stated.

In a video sent out Monday morning, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres highlighted the impact of climate change on global temperatures, noting that the last decade has witnessed the top 10 hottest years recorded. “We are witnessing a real-time climate emergency.”

Heat Records in the U.S. and Worldwide

Throughout 2024, heat records have been broken globally. For a continuous period of 16 months – from June 2023 to September 2024 – the global average temperature has significantly surpassed past records, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization’s evaluation of global weather data.

In the first 11 months of 2024, the Earth’s surface temperature averaged 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1901-2000 average of 57.2 degrees. This year also marked the hottest summer ever.

Although global average temperatures dipped below 2023 figures occasionally in the latter half of 2024, overall air and ocean temperatures remained above average, as indicated by data from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. This dataset integrates standard weather reports worldwide and satellite observations with a computer model to provide comprehensive estimates in areas with limited observational data.

In November, record-high temperatures affected about 10.6% of the Earth’s surface, marking the highest percentage for that month since records began in 1951, while only 0.4% of land areas experienced record-low temperatures, according to NOAA. Notably, November 2024 was the warmest November on record in Asia.

Temperature Trends in the U.S.

While there’s less certainty about whether 2024 will establish a new annual heat record in the U.S., the average temperature in the contiguous United States for the first 11 months has been recorded as the highest, reaching 57.1 degrees, which is 3.3 degrees hotter than the norm.

NOAA has also conveyed the following:

• From January to November, temperatures were at record highs in 22 states and ranked among the top three warmest periods for another 11 states.
• November was the second warmest month on record, just 0.09 degrees shy of the previous year’s record.
• The Gulf of Mexico experienced its warmest November on record, which was 2.95 degrees above average.

Reasons Behind 2024’s Elevated Temperatures

Several elements contributed to the unusually high temperatures, as explained by Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts.

The natural El Niño phenomenon, a marine heat wave in the tropical Pacific, persisted through April, while marine heat waves in other regions, particularly the North Pacific and North Atlantic, were fueled by elevated greenhouse gas levels throughout the year, Francis noted.

Francis emphasized that the increasing frequency and severity of heat waves both on land and in oceans are clear indicators of human-induced climate change. The upcoming year is also expected to reflect similar trends.

“More such headlines are expected to emerge.”

According to her, alterations in the Earth’s climate due to human actions have played a role as well, including changes in wind patterns that seem to be “decreasing clouds that reflect solar energy away from the Earth, resulting in increased surface warming.” Additionally, the darker surfaces exposed by melting ice and snow absorb greater amounts of sunshine.

Yearly average sea-surface temperatures since 1982:

Climate change ‘influencing’ natural weather trends

Researchers continue to examine how rising temperatures are currently affecting or may affect severe weather events in the future, such as heat waves, hurricanes, and intense storms that lead to strong winds and tornadoes.

This year, the country experienced nearly a record-setting number of tornadoes. The Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico generated significant hurricane activity, despite not reaching the number of storms initially predicted for the season.

The five hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. led to more than 200 fatalities, marking the deadliest season on the mainland since 2005. Heat waves that occurred after the hurricanes, particularly when people were without electricity, further compounded the situation, according to Dahl. “These events can be especially troubling because it leaves individuals without power or water.”

For instance, after Hurricane Beryl hit Texas in June, at least 11 individuals died due to heat exposure while dealing with power outages. One of the victims was 110-year-old Christine B. Davis, who “just couldn’t handle the heat,” as shared by her granddaughter Emma Odom.

“There’s no doubt that climate change impacts everything in the atmosphere, yet analyzing signals linked to hurricanes is more challenging,” noted Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. This complexity arises from the relatively short period of reliable data and the natural fluctuations between seasons.

Increasingly, research indicates that hurricanes are experiencing higher peak intensities and an uptick in rapid strengthening. “It’s not that we have more storms, but those that do form are more likely to become stronger, often in shorter time frames,” McNoldy elaborated. “I don’t attribute climate change as the sole cause of these storm patterns; however, it is subtly influencing their behavior overall.”

Will 2025 set new records?

Scientists shared with YSL News this week that it’s feasible for global temperatures to be somewhat lower in 2025, particularly if a La Niña pattern develops. This has occurred before, as seen in 2017 when temperatures dipped slightly after three consecutive record-high years during an intense El Niño in 2015-2016, making 2017 the second hottest year at that time.

“Temperature fluctuations are normal, so 2025 might very well be cooler,” stated Francis. Yet, the World Meteorological Organization recently indicated that the anticipated La Niña in the Pacific Ocean is expected to be weak and brief.

“However, until we stop releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the overall trend will persist upwards,” Francis cautioned. “Every time a record is broken, every severe weather event occurs, every coral reef deteriorates, and every coastal flood takes place should alarm us that our exploitation of the Earth is making such occurrences more frequent, more intense, and more devastating.”