24 recent NFL first-round picks facing critical moments ahead of the 2024 season
Being labeled as a first-round pick in the NFL comes with its ups and downs.
This designation brings prestige, financial gain – at least in the beginning – and new opportunities. However, teams can be hesitant to watch a first-round investment fail or stagnate. Additionally, there’s intense scrutiny that comes with being an early draft choice, along with pressure to succeed quickly. As the salary cap grows, executives are more inclined to make cuts before rookie contracts are completed.
For those at a crossroads in their careers, whether remaining with their original teams or switching teams, Week 2 of the preseason presents a dwindling opportunity to prove their worthiness for a new contract, the possibility of a fifth-year option, a defined role, or even a spot on the roster in a league notorious for its quick turnovers in player personnel.
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones epitomizes the concept of a make-or-break season, especially as he recovers from a knee injury that cut short his 2023 season. His progress suggests he’s ready to play this Saturday against Houston.
“He has improved daily,” said Giants coach Brian Daboll this week. “There are new components, new tight ends, new receivers, which is part of the progress.
“Coming back from his injury, he has done an excellent job. He continues to grow and has performed well in the last few weeks.”
As the weekend approaches and the 2024 season nears, Jones is one of 24 former first-rounders who could find their future in professional football hanging by a thread:
2021 quarterbacks
This group was highly anticipated at the time, but only Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who recently signed a record-equalling five-year deal worth up to $275 million, remains with his original franchise after three seasons. Lawrence is now joined by Duval County native Mac Jones, who was traded to the Jaguars after a disappointing tenure with the Patriots, despite a promising rookie season that included a Pro Bowl and a playoff appearance. If Lawrence is subjected to heavy hits again like in 2023, Jones could have a chance to demonstrate his capabilities in more favorable conditions.
Meanwhile, Zach Wilson has moved on from the New York Jets after a lackluster stint and is now with the Denver Broncos, where he impressed in his preseason debut (10-for-13, 117 yards). Currently, he is competing for HC Sean Payton’s favor against rookie Bo Nix and veteran Jarrett Stidham. Furthermore, if Dak Prescott’s contract situation with the Dallas Cowboys remains unresolved by the end of the season, backup QB Trey Lance may find himself in a prime position to capitalize, desperately trying to prove that he can live up to being the No. 3 overall pick the San Francisco 49ers selected three years ago before trading him.
Lastly, after being released from the Chicago Bears despite showcasing his talent, Justin Fields is beginning anew with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The question remains: how long will it be before he is starting as the quarterback for the Steelers, especially with veteran Russell Wilson in the mix? Fields may lack experience and has occasional errors, but he undeniably has a dynamic edge over Wilson at this stage.
WR Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans
Selected in the same draft night that Tennessee traded away WR A.J. Brown in 2022, Burks has struggled to replace his predecessor, boasting only 49 receptions and just one touchdown to his name. With veteran DeAndre Hopkins sidelined by a knee issue this summer, Burks has a chance to step up. However, with the Titans signing WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, who are both familiar with HC Brian Callahan’s offensive strategies from their time in Cincinnati, Burks may find himself in a tough competition for the WR4 position at a crucial juncture in his career.
S Lewis Cine, Minnesota Vikings
Cine is likely in need of a new opportunity. The last player picked in the first round of the 2022 draft, he suffered a broken leg during his rookie year that limited him to just three games and only appeared in seven last season. With only 10 defensive snaps throughout his NFL tenure and being placed on the third team depth chart, it appears he is more likely to see action in special teams if he continues to stay in Minnesota.
QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold? Running out of chances? His situation is unique; the No. 3 overall pick of the 2018 draft (selected by the Jets) is now with his fourth team as he enters his seventh year. However, with former NFL quarterback Kevin O’Connell guiding him, an All-Pro receiver in Justin Jefferson, and fewer restrictions on playing time following rookie J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending knee injury, this might be Darnold’s final strong opportunity to prove he can be a starting quarterback in the league – whether with the Vikings or elsewhere. This moment is arguably.
This situation is reminiscent of how Baker Mayfield secured a significant extension with the Buccaneers last season.
VIKINGS STRUGGLING WITHOUT J.J. McCARTHY? Not so fast
“Sam has performed really well during camp, and I have a very high level of confidence in him right now,” O’Connell stated on Tuesday. “I’m eager to watch his continued development.”
LB Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders
Since being drafted in 2021, Davis has had substantial playing time (36 starts, 269 tackles) but has made minimal impact on a generally underperforming defense. With his option not being picked up and Washington’s new management bringing in free-agent linebackers Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu, and Dante Fowler Jr. — all of whom are starters — it seems like Davis’s time may be running out.
CB Kaiir Elam, Buffalo Bills
As he heads into his third year, Elam has yet to make a mark (8 starts in his career) and is currently slated for primarily dime and special teams roles unless his performance improves or situations change.
CB Caleb Farley, Titans
Like Cine, Farley might benefit from a fresh start, which seems imminent. A first-round draft pick in 2021, his career has been plagued by injuries, limiting him to just two starts. He did not play at all in 2023, following a tragic incident where his home exploded, resulting in his father’s death. Farley is listed as a third-string player and is set to become a free agent in 2025 or possibly even sooner.
Green Bay Packers Defenders
The Packers’ defense, brimming with first-round talent, has often fallen short of expectations for years. With new coordinator Jeff Hafley implementing changes to the system and reassigning roles, 2024 may be a turning point. This presents an opportunity for CB Eric Stokes, a 2021 draft pick whose fifth-year option was declined, LB Quay Walker, and DL Devonte Wyatt (drafted in 2022) to make a comeback. However, Stokes has faced injuries for most of the last two seasons, and Wyatt has yet to secure a starting position.
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Interestingly, the Steelers have declined Harris’s option for 2025, even though he has played every game and averages nearly 1,400 scrimmage yards in his three seasons. However, his productivity has declined since his rookie year, with 1,667 yards on a league-high 381 touches in 2022, down to 1,205 yards last season, as the role of his teammate Jaylen Warren expanded. Given the team’s decision to forgo extending Harris’s control while attempting to strengthen their running game, this suggests that in 2025, especially with another quarterback decision looming, the Steelers may redirect resources away from Harris unless he significantly improves.
DB Dax Hill, Cincinnati Bengals
Hill’s versatility was considered an asset when he entered the league from Michigan in 2022, but he has not yet established himself as a safety or nickel player and is currently on the second team as a cornerback, behind his former Michigan teammate DJ Turner II, who was drafted a year later.
Houston Texans Cornerbacks
Remarkably, both Jeff Okudah and C.J. Henderson were top 10 draft picks in 2020, with Okudah being selected at No. 3 overall by the Detroit Lions, the highest for any cornerback. Yet both players have become NFL nomads, with Houston being their third team. They are fortunate to play in a position that is always in need and requires top athleticism. Nonetheless, neither player is assured a spot on the Texans’ 53-man roster, and their NFL future may depend on whether they can leverage their draft pedigree for more opportunities.
QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants
“We’ve done everything possible to mess this kid up since he’s been with us,” owner John Mara bluntly stated two years ago. Jones then had what appeared to be a breakout season in 2022 under coach Daboll, earning him a four-year, $160 million extension, but a struggling offensive line and a torn ACL led to a major setback last season for a quarterback known for turnovers. Jones stands out here even after securing a second contract because the Giants’ actions in free agency and the draft, particularly GM Joe Schoen’s comments about potentially selecting a quarterback, indicate that 2024 will be critical in evaluating Jones’s long-term potential. If he doesn’t improve, he could be released in 2025.
RT Evan Neal, Giants
Neal isn’t the only former first-round draft pick facing evaluation. At just two years into his career, the seventh overall pick appears to be moving to a swing tackle role following the signing of OT Jermaine Eluemunor to a two-year deal, which likely secures him a starting spot on the right side. “I don’t feel entitled to anything,” Neal said after returning from ankle surgery. “I just want to earn everything through hard work.” With a lackluster start to his career, Neal has much to prove, especially if he hopes to earn an option pick up from the already skeptical Schoen next spring.
New Orleans Saints Linemen
DE Payton Turner, chosen 28th overall in 2021, has struggled to stay on the field, playing just 15 games (zero starts) and recording three sacks over three seasons. His injuries and lack of production have led the team to decline his option for 2025 as he looks set to be no more than a rotational player in 2024. On the opposite side, 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning seems poised to take over as the starting right tackle due to Ryan Ramczyk’s season-ending injury. Yet, Penning has been limited to only six professional starts, and the Saints have already drafted his potential replacement, Taliese Fuaga, as the new left tackle for both now and the future. Penning must show significant improvement if he wants to remain with the Saints past 2025, provided he even remains on the team that long.
G Cole Strange, New England Patriots
Selected in the first round two years ago, Strange was a surprising choice coming from Tennessee-Chattanooga and has been at best average in his 27 career starts. Compounding the issue is a knee injury sustained late last season, which might sideline him for much of the 2024 campaign. During that time, he’ll need to fight to regain his position and prove himself worthy of having his option activated for 2026.
OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Since being drafted as the Buccaneers’ first pick after their Super Bowl 55 victory, Tryon-Shoyinka has played in every game and has started 34 times. However, his influence on the field has been limited, averaging under five sacks and 21 pressures each season. With his option not picked up, he is poised to enter free agency next year, encountering tougher competition from newly drafted outside linebackers like Yaya Diaby and Chris Braswell.
LT Jedrick Wills Jr., Cleveland Browns
Wills, a first-round draft pick for the team within the last six years, is about to begin his option year. He missed the latter half of the 2023 season due to a knee injury and is currently listed on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list. Concerns over his durability, the number of penalties he incurs, and his overall gameplay have arisen. While finding young left tackles is not easy, it currently appears that the Browns could potentially secure a more effective option next year for an eight-figure salary.