High-sensitivity climate models should be included in future regional climate impact predictions, as global warming levels aren’t solely reliable indicators of regional changes, according to a recent study.
A recent study indicates that high-sensitivity climate models should be included in predictions about future regional climate impacts, as global warming levels aren’t always precise indicators of regional changes.
Some climate models project faster global warming compared to others, resulting in temperature forecasts that may seem implausible. Consequently, some experts argue for the exclusion of these more sensitive models—often referred to as ‘hotter’ models—from future climate impact assessments.
However, new research published in Earth’s Future reveals that there’s no consistent link between the rate of global warming and critical regional factors. Instead, it emphasizes the importance of considering how regional weather patterns influence impacts.
According to Dr. Ranjini Swaminathan, the lead author from the University of Reading and the National Centre for Earth Observation, “We should not disregard climate models when assessing impacts based on their sensitivity, as this may cause us to overlook serious and realistic future scenarios.”
“Global phenomena don’t necessarily align with local events, and our findings demonstrate there’s no standard correlation between climate sensitivity and regional climate factors. For instance, while we anticipate an overall rise in drought occurrences in the future, we do not observe a significant correlation between the increase in droughts and climate sensitivity. This indicates that the extent of global warming is just one of several influences on drought and may not always be the most critical.”
“Our findings challenge the notion that models indicating higher warming should be excluded from future climate impact research.”
Community Preparedness
The researchers examined how various models forecast three major climate impacts: intense rainfall leading to floods, droughts affecting agriculture and water resources, and conditions heightening wildfire risks. Their analyses included regions like the Amazon rainforest, Australia, East Asia, and parts of Africa and India.
Their findings suggest that the degree of global warming predicted by a model isn’t the primary determinant of local impacts; regional conditions also hold significant weight. If models are selected solely based on global warming predictions, crucial and plausible local climate outcomes may be overlooked. This can result in a misleading understanding of the risks that governments and communities must address while adapting to climate change.
