The initial semifinal of the College Football Playoff is set to take place in sunny Florida, while much of the country faces chilly temperatures during the first full week of the new year.

In the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame will compete against Penn State, with the victor earning a spot in the national championship and a chance to break their long title drought. Notre Dame’s last championship victory was in 1988, while Penn State secured its last title in 1986.

Another noteworthy aspect of this matchup is that both squads are coached by Black head coaches—Marcus Freeman of Notre Dame and James Franklin of Penn State. This will mark the first time a Black coach is guaranteed to participate in the Bowl Subdivision national championship game.

On the field, both teams are quite similar. They feature some of the nation’s top defenses but may struggle offensively against strong opponents. The game is likely to be a hard-fought battle where a single turnover or a significant play could tip the scales. So, who will come out on top? Our analysts share their insights.

Scooby Axson

This matchup is anticipated to be a defensive battle, so the team that can effectively run the ball and allow their quarterback to distribute it to key players will likely emerge victorious. Typically, with two top 10 defenses, the first team to reach 17 points may win. Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard doesn’t need to rely heavily on passing, similar to the way he played in the Georgia victory, but his mobility will be crucial in sustaining drives. Notre Dame 24, Penn State 9.

Jordan Mendoza

Which defense will dominate? Both Penn State and Notre Dame have successfully restricted their opponents leading up to this semifinal, meaning each team will have to struggle to score points. While Penn State’s offense appears to be more dynamic than that of Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish are adept at forcing turnovers and have recorded the most this season. Notre Dame manages to disrupt Drew Allar and comes through against the Nittany Lions in a tough match. Notre Dame 20, Penn State 16.

Paul Myerberg

Two outstanding defenses will clash for a title shot. The Orange Bowl may hinge on turnovers and which quarterback can cope under pressure and keep drives alive on third downs. While Penn State has superior receiving options, the mobility of Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard will be a significant advantage for the Irish as they try to convert third downs. This low-scoring contest will go down to the wire, with Notre Dame edging ahead. Notre Dame 23, Penn State 16.

Erick Smith

James Franklin’s track record against top teams is well-known. Penn State consistently falls short in crucial matches, often due to questionable coaching choices. Will he and the Nittany Lions finally overcome that hurdle? They possess a stronger offense with Tyler Warren, a versatile threat that Notre Dame may struggle to contain. Yet, as is common in tightly contested games featuring strong defenses, this matchup is likely to be decided by a few critical plays. The Fighting Irish have shown they are skilled at securing victories in high-pressure moments. Thus, their chances look promising once more. Notre Dame 20, Penn State 17.

Eddie Timanus

This is an unfavorable matchup for Penn State, as they will need substantial contributions from their passing game, which may be tough to achieve against Notre Dame’s formidable secondary. While the Fighting Irish might not excel in big plays, the added dimension of quarterback Riley Leonard’s running ability gives their offense an edge. Notre Dame 26, Penn State 13.

Dan Wolken

This situation highlights the impact of the new College Football Playoff framework. Although Notre Dame performed strongly in their first two games, the victories came at a price, as the team is now dealing with injuries. Key defensive player Rylie Mills is out for the season due to an injury sustained against Indiana, while tight end Cooper Flanagan was injured in the match versus Georgia. Running back Jeremiyah Love and defensive lineman Howard Cross also faced challenges against Georgia, but seem set to play. Penn State’s most significant uncertainty is Abdul Carter, their star defensive player who had to leave the quarterfinals early. If he’s limited, it could shift the balance. However, I’m leaning toward the slightly healthier team. Penn State 27, Notre Dame 23.