And now we’re down to four teams.

The NFL’s 2024 postseason has narrowed down to its final four as the conference championship games are set for this Sunday. With historical implications all around, these matchups are sure to be exciting, featuring two teams that have faced each other in the regular season.

How close are these finalists to each other? Likely not as far apart as the betting lines suggest, which is why we’ve ranked these four teams – from least to most likely – to make it to Super Bowl 59 in terms of their championship potential, otherwise known as playoff power rankings (previous ranking in parentheses):

4. Buffalo Bills (5)

No offense intended, loyal Bills Mafia. Think of your team as ranking fourth out of thirty-two, not just among the final four – but one elite squad has to take this spot, and unfortunately, they will have to face a dynastic team striving for further greatness. Buffalo undeniably took care of business last Sunday against the Ravens, but it must be said that Baltimore made some rare mistakes – particularly from quarterback Lamar Jackson and tight end Mark Andrews – that significantly benefited the Bills. Now, having gotten past that challenge, the perennial AFC East champions with an injured secondary must head on the road, where they finished the season with a 5-4 record, to face the dominant AFC West champion Chiefs – a team they’ve struggled against in the playoffs (0-3 in recent years) led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid. After handing Kansas City their first loss of this season two months prior – aided by two rare turnovers from Mahomes, who hasn’t turned the ball over in his seven games since – can Buffalo, now a 1½-point underdog (according to BetMGM), defeat the reigning champions again? If they achieve this, it would bring them one victory away from their first championship since they ruled the AFL back in the mid-1960s.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (3)

Currently, they are favored by 6 points against the Commanders, a team they split their season series with, although quarterback Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in the second game and may not be fully fit for the decisive duel. This is indeed a concern, as Hurts’ agility is crucial to his success – whether dodging defenders or utilizing his strong legs for the Eagles’ signature “tush push” to score. He made a strong start against the Rams last week with a 44-yard touchdown run but, after enduring seven sacks and significant hits, was struggling to protect himself on a wobbly knee by the end of the match. Known for not being a top passer (129.5 yards per game in the playoffs), if Hurts isn’t at his best, it could hinder an offense also heavily dependent on running back Saquon Barkley – a player Washington’s defense would definitely key in on under any scenario. Barkley needs just 148 more yards to outrun Hall of Famer Terrell Davis’ overall rushing record (including playoffs), which stands at 2,476 yards from 1998. Beyond Barkley’s efforts, Philadelphia possibly boasts the strongest defense (+6 turnover differential in the postseason) and the best offensive line in the league, which might be sufficient for the NFC East champions to move past Washington.

2. Washington Commanders (7)

If playoff achievements were a factor in determining the league MVP, rookie Jayden Daniels could be leading the charge. He’s made history as the first rookie quarterback to win two playoff games on the road for this franchise in its 93-year existence. The away team Commanders aim to make it 3-0 in a playoffs where home teams are currently undefeated in the eight games that don’t involve them. Despite Philadelphia’s impressive defense – which allowed the fewest points in the NFC throughout the regular season and also had the lowest average points allowed across the league when factoring in the postseason – Daniels managed to throw five touchdown passes against them last month. This success isn’t just down to one player. Under coach Dan Quinn’s guidance, his defense has generally performed well against Hurts. They’re currently executing their game plan effectively – making substantial plays, including six takeaways in the playoffs. Plus, Washington’s running attack came alive last week with 182 rushing yards. The Commanders are meeting expectations and may become the first team to reach the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback leading the team.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (1)

We know they may not look the part. But it’s not about aesthetics for a team that has consistently overcome these perceptions and has won 22 of their last 24 games, with one of the losses occurring earlier this month in Denver while key starters were resting. Mahomes and Reid boast an impressive record of 11-2 in playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium, including two victories over Buffalo. If there are debates about players like tight end Travis Kelce and defensive lineman Chris Jones being past their prime, they certainly didn’t show any signs of weakness last Saturday against Houston, looking sharp and dominant as they traditionally do in January. Allen faced challenges against this defense in their famous playoff showdown three years ago, which the Chiefs won in overtime, 42-36. Moreover, K.C. has effectively contained Buffalo’s star quarterback in playoffs, limiting his passing success, while occasionally struggling against him as a runner (Allen averaged 76 rushing yards in their last three meetings). The Chiefs are in good health, having only played one meaningful game since Christmas, and should be thoroughly prepared given the preparation time Reid and his coaching staff have had. Lastly, history favors the organization which has been focused this past year on making history itself as they strive to achieve the first-ever Super Bowl three-peat.

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Follow YSL News Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.