For 78 consecutive years, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has released an annual update of the Doomsday Clock, indicating how near or far humanity is from causing its own demise.

The upcoming update will be announced on Tuesday, January 28, at 10 a.m. EST during a live webcast, with its specifics kept confidential until then.

This clock serves as a symbolic representation of how close humanity is to potential self-destruction, as per the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, who have overseen it since 1947. The organization was founded by scientists from the University of Chicago who contributed to the first atomic bombs developed during the Manhattan Project.

Originally, the clock focused on the nuclear threat but in recent decades, it has also taken into account climate change, artificial intelligence, and misinformation.

Every year, the Science and Security Board members are tasked with addressing two critical questions:

• Is humanity at greater risk or safer this year compared to the last?
• In relation to the entire 78-year period of the Clock, is humanity at greater risk or safer now?

Their responses determine the Clock’s position for the upcoming year.

How did the Doomsday Clock originate?

In 1945, on the anniversary of Pearl Harbor’s attack, scientists involved in the Manhattan Project began issuing a mimeographed newsletter titled The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Two years later, these scientists, reflecting on the use of atomic weapons in Japan, convened to address the existential threat posed by nuclear conflict.

“They feared the public wasn’t fully aware of how close we were to annihilation,” noted Rachel Bronson, the current president and CEO of the Bulletin.

Artist Martyl Langsdorf, who was married to Manhattan Project physicist Alexander Langsdorf Jr., conceived the idea of a clock to visualize the looming threat.

This led to the creation of the Doomsday Clock.

“It conveyed the message that inaction would lead the clock to tick toward midnight and bring about the apocalypse,” Bronson explained.

What is the current state of the Doomsday Clock?

As of 2024, the experts overseeing the Doomsday Clock have stated that humanity is in a dire position, with the clock set at 90 seconds to midnight, identical to its setting in 2023.

Before this, the clock was at 100 seconds to midnight, marking the highest threat level since its inception in 1947.

Who determines the setting of the Doomsday Clock?

The Doomsday Clock is adjusted annually by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes nine Nobel laureates. This year’s board comprised 18 members.

Throughout the year, the board reviews extensive information to stay informed on various trends and threats, holding multiple online meetings and two in-person gatherings in Chicago, the Bulletin’s home base. These discussions also cover new emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence.

The U.S. government or any other government has no part in setting the clock; this process is solely conducted by scientists and global experts.

What does midnight signify on the Doomsday Clock?

The clock focuses exclusively on dangers that humanity can impose upon itself. For instance, an asteroid heading toward Earth wouldn’t be factored in, while enhancing pathogens to be more lethal would be.

Between the 1950s and 1980s, the threat of nuclear war seemed imminent. Although it appears less tangible today, the risk remains, according to Robert Socolow, an environmental scientist and professor emeritus of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Princeton University who is also on the board.

“Younger generations can’t fathom the anxiety their grandparents and parents lived with, assuming they don’t need to worry about it now. But they should,” he emphasized.

Today’s threats differ from those during the Cold War, as we now contend with non-state actors like terrorists and nations such as North Korea, which operate outside the global order and may access dangerous weaponry and pathogens.

“We have nuclear weapons on alert, numerous nuclear arms worldwide, and a doctrine that necessitates retaliation if attacked,” Socolow added.

Is the Doomsday Clock always moving closer to midnight?

Over the past 78 years, the clock’s setting has fluctuated based on global events, sometimes moving forward or backward.

The furthest it has been from midnight occurred in 1991 when it was placed 17 minutes to midnight following the signing of the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty by the U.S. and the Soviet Union, and the subsequent dissolution of the USSR.

The most alarming periods have been the past two years, when the clock was set at 90 seconds to midnight, primarily due to escalating nuclear and political tensions, COVID-19, climate change, and the threat of biological weapons.

“This marked a qualitatively new phase,” Socolow noted. “Putin threatened the use of nuclear weapons [in Ukraine].”

When first announced in 1947, the inaugural clock was set at 7 minutes to midnight.