With the recent weather system having brought significant rainfall to Southern California, residents who have suffered due to wildfires may be curious about how long their safety will last from the flames that have devastated parts of Los Angeles County this month.

The tentative response: Perhaps a week?

This doesn’t imply that destructive wildfires will immediately reappear in early February, but the rain from the weekend wasn’t sufficient to thoroughly saturate the drought-impacted region, leaving fire hazards still in play.

According to the National Weather Service, a particular site in Santa Barbara County recorded three days of rainfall totaling 2.23 inches, while most areas in coastal and mountainous sectors of Los Angeles County saw about 1 inch. Ventura County to the northwest received slightly less. Nonetheless, this rainfall assisted firefighters in ramping up containment measures to the mid-to-high 90s for the Palisades, Eaton, and Hughes fires.

“They require several rain systems to have a lasting effect. Considering the severe-to-extreme drought conditions, (the rain from the weekend) won’t alleviate the drought,” explained meteorologist Alex DaSilva from AccuWeather. “This might lower the threat momentarily for a week. The rainfall wasn’t excessive. While it will aid in controlling the fires for now, the dryness will return in a week or so.”

DaSilva does not anticipate any additional rainfall in Southern California until possibly late in the first week of February, raising the prospect of new fires erupting, potentially sparked by human actions like discarding a lit cigarette or inadequately extinguishing a campfire.

On a positive note: The warm, dry Santa Ana winds that previously exacerbated the blazes, especially the deadly Palisades and Eaton fires that ignited on January 7, are not expected to return for at least the next ten days, according to DaSilva.

A report from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety labeled the conditions for those initial fires as “a textbook-worst case conflagration scenario,” noting that historically, wildfires in suburban areas are often influenced by human activity, drought, and wind—all of which were present on January 7.

With the absence of the Santa Ana winds, the outlook seems more promising for the immediate future. However, these winds typically occur from September through May and could pose a risk again unless substantial rain helps to conclude an unusually extended fire season that usually doesn’t last into January.

Currently, the weather patterns resemble those of a La Niña, which has prevented storms from reaching Southern California this winter. Although these conditions have been shifting recently, it seems more precipitation is likely to reach Northern California by the coming weekend, while Southern California may miss out.

“If the winter is wet, the Santa Ana winds won’t pose much of a threat,” DaSilva added. “But if the ground is dry, that’s when challenges may arise.”