Making breakfast with eggs may become more difficult as prices for this kitchen staple are forecasted to rise throughout the year, despite Vice President JD Vance’s recent remarks suggesting otherwise.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts egg prices will see an increase of around 20% in 2025, a significant contrast to the expected overall food price inflation of about 2.2%. This rise in egg prices is largely attributed to a severe outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, also known as bird flu, which has affected supply levels.

The price increase is not abrupt; in December 2024, egg prices were 36.8% higher than in December 2023. However, they remained lower than the peak prices observed in January 2023, according to the USDA. The report indicates that retail egg prices rose by 8.4% in December 2024, with persistent fluctuations month to month.

In addition to eggs, prices for beef, coffee, and orange juice are also expected to rise in 2025, though none are projected to increase as much as egg prices, according to the USDA’s forecast. During an interview on CBS News’s “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” Vance stated that both gas and grocery prices would eventually decline.

“Prices are going to come down, although it may take a little while,” Vance told Brennan in the interview that aired on Sunday. “The president has only been in office for five days, and in that short time, I believe he has achieved more than Joe Biden did in four years.”

Here’s what you need to know about the uptick in egg prices and the reasons behind them.

What is the Current Status of the Bird Flu Outbreak?

The strain of bird flu known as H5N1 began affecting poultry and wild birds in Europe in the fall of 2020 before spreading to the U.S., Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. This outbreak has become the largest of its kind in the United States.

On January 3, the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported that grocery stores are facing record-high retail prices due to “significant outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)” among commercial table egg layer flocks through December.

As of January 17, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that the virus has impacted over 136 million birds across all 50 states since January 2022. In response to the outbreak, infected birds have been selectively culled across the nation, with numbers sometimes reaching millions at a single site.

While some states managed to avoid last year’s outbreaks, many have recently taken note of a resurgence. The USDA highlighted that approximately 17.2 million egg-laying hens were lost due to the virus in November and December alone, which accounts for nearly half of all birds lost to the outbreak in 2024.

What Were the Egg Prices Last Month?

With the anticipated rise in egg prices, consumers may notice significant increases compared to December. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the average price for a dozen large, grade-A eggs was $4.15 in December, up from $3.65 in November.

The Consumer Price Index also showed that egg prices surged by over 36% year-on-year in December.

In his interview, Vance noted that some of the executive orders signed by Trump are expected to help lower prices, stating that they “have already initiated job recovery in our country, a crucial factor in reducing costs.”

“More investments and job creation in our economy are key to driving down prices for consumers and helping to boost wages so that individuals can afford essential items,” Vance added.

When Can We Expect Egg Prices to Decrease?

It remains uncertain when egg prices might begin to decline, but it may take until after 2025.

A key factor influencing egg prices will be the capacity of farmers and producers to restore their populations of healthy laying hens. Prices and supply will only stabilize once farms can recover their stock of healthy hens. The USDA anticipates a decrease in table egg production in 2025 due to a smaller flock size resulting from losses attributed to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and reduced laying rates.

“No one can foresee the future, but bird flu continues to pose a threat to our egg farms. Egg farmers are diligently working to safeguard their flocks, replenish supplies, and maintain egg production,” Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, told YSL News earlier this month. “On a positive note, she pointed out that farmers have gained much more experience in combating the disease, which helps them recover more quickly.”

Contributing: Dinah Voyles Pulver, YSL News