Following the tragic mid-air accident involving American Airlines Flight 5342 and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter close to Washington Reagan National Airport on Wednesday night, both officials and the public are eager for answers about what caused the crash.

Various theories and speculations are circulating among experts and casual observers, and while the quest for answers is understandable, it’s crucial to recognize that some details will take time to uncover.

“In the initial 24 hours after such incidents, we typically have limited information, and what we believe we know may later turn out to be incorrect,” stated William J. McGee, a senior aviation and travel fellow at the American Economic Liberties Project, during an interview with YSL News.

Currently, just under 24 hours after the incident, detailed information remains scarce.

“Since we are just starting our investigation, there isn’t much information to disclose at this moment,” expressed Brice Banning, senior investigator with the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), at a Thursday press briefing. “We will keep you updated with regular information as it becomes available.”

Nonetheless, experts have already identified some fundamental facts regarding the accident.

“What’s known is that the CRJ aircraft was approaching runway 33 at Reagan Airport and was at a low altitude, probably at or below 500 feet. The helicopter was also in the vicinity. There exists a helicopter route along the eastern bank of the river that intersects with the plane’s final approach, generally separated by altitude, albeit only by a few hundred feet,” remarked Jim Brauchle, an aviation attorney at Motley Rice, in an interview.

Nevertheless, numerous questions persist.

“Even the most knowledgeable experts involved currently have many unresolved queries. They possess more information than the public, but still not all the answers,” McGee highlighted.

Here’s a closer look at the aspects experts will likely examine and what the investigation timeline may look like moving forward.

Was either aircraft in the wrong airspace?

One of the initial inquiries for investigators will likely be whether either aircraft was in an airspace they shouldn’t have been in. Early indications from air traffic control communications suggest that the American Airlines flight was on the correct landing trajectory at DCA, while the helicopter was also operating within its authorized area, albeit possibly at a different altitude than expected.

“It’s a peculiar approach. As planes near the airfield for that runway, they fly along the east side of the river, but about a mile and a half from the runway, they execute a significant 50-degree turn for landing. At that juncture, they are usually around 490 feet, passing over the river at approximately 400 to 450 feet, whereas the helicopter route stays at or below 200 feet,” Brauchle explained. “Even if both aircraft were where they should be, the separation is only around 200 feet, which is minimal.”

Senator Tammy Duckworth from Illinois mentioned during a press briefing on Thursday that she has requested details about the flight paths of both the plane and the helicopter. Duckworth, who has experience flying a Black Hawk, is a senior member of the U.S. Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation.

McGee also voiced similar initial concerns.

“This airspace is among the busiest in the U.S. Were they in the wrong places simultaneously?” he queried. “How did a helicopter get directly into the flight path of a plane cleared to land at a major U.S. airport?”

Did the collision avoidance system function properly?

All commercial aircraft in the U.S. must be equipped with a traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS), which serves as a warning device. While military aircraft in civilian airspace may not always be required to have this system, some are equipped with it.

An important line of inquiry will be whether the TCAS on the American Airlines jet was operational and whether the Black Hawk was equipped with the system and had it activated at the time of the incident.

However, experts caution that the TCAS isn’t infallible.

“When you’re at such a close proximity to the runway amidst that level of traffic, it might not trigger the system,” Brauchle stated. “It will be interesting to analyze the flight data recorder to see if TCAS notified the crews.”

Who was at fault in the collision?

Aviation disasters usually result from multiple factors rather than a single mistake. The NTSB, which is leading the investigation into Wednesday night’s incident, will focus on uncovering what exactly transpired.

A key question will revolve around identifying the immediate cause of the crash.

“Could either crew have acted differently? Was the military helicopter in the right place at the wrong time?” McGee pondered. “It appears to have flown directly into the approach path of an active runway. Such a scenario should not occur at that altitude.”

Duckworth stressed the importance of patience, urging everyone to “allow the NTSB and FAA the space to conduct their investigations thoroughly.”

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Robert Isom, CEO of American Airlines, also communicated with staff on Thursday, emphasizing that the NTSB is the only official source regarding this accident.

“While this investigation is ongoing – and will take significant time – we will share information as it becomes available. It’s vital to understand that the NTSB oversees aviation accident investigations. They will be the definitive source for accurate updates moving forward,” the letter conveyed.

Potential influences: Night vision goggles and more

The crash’s timing and other elements often play a role in accidents, even if they don’t directly cause them.

“I’ve received certain reports but haven’t verified them—(air traffic control reported) that the helicopter stated they had the aircraft in sight,” Brauchle disclosed. “One might assume that, given it’s a commercial plane, visibility should be adequate, but at night, the only visible aspects are the lights. If the helicopter is just a few hundred feet above ground in a densely lit urban area, it can be challenging to discern which lights belong to what.”

The helicopter pilots were also engaged in a night flight training session and might have been using night vision goggles. While the Secretary of Defense confirmed that night vision goggles were on the helicopter at the time, it’s unclear if the pilots utilized them during the collision.

“Training missions at night for military crews often involve night vision goggles, which can sometimes be unreliable and affected by ground light clutter,” explained Robert W. Mann, Jr., a former airline executive and current president of R. W. Mann and Company, a consultancy in aviation.

Both McGee and Brauchle mentioned that the planes may simply have been in each other’s blind spots.

Brauchle noted that as the American aircraft turned, it could have lifted its belly towards the helicopter, potentially obscuring it from the jet pilots’ view.

Similarly, he remarked, if the helicopter was positioned somewhat below the plane, it might not have detected the plane’s approach either.

“There was a helicopter incident we investigated a few years ago near the Hudson River involving a tour helicopter and a plane. Neither spotted each other until the very last moment. The NTSB conducted a visual study, focusing on human factors,” he shared. “There are areas where you remain unaware of nearby aircraft until they’re nearly adjacent, and frequently, it’s too late to take action then.”

Next steps for the investigation

“Now is not the time for speculation,” remarked Duckworth. “We need to ascertain the facts.”

This investigation will require time. McGee expressed hope that some preliminary findings may emerge in the coming days, but likely, no official reports will surface for at least a month, and a comprehensive final report from the NTSB may take a year or longer to complete.

Banning, the NTSB investigator, anticipated releasing a preliminary report in approximately 30 days.

“We will invest the necessary time,” he affirmed. “If we uncover any significant issues that require immediate action, we won’t hesitate to make those recommendations publicly known.”

In the meantime, McGee emphasized that it’s pivotal for travelers to remember that air travel is safe and that the industry will utilize this incident as a learning opportunity to enhance safety protocols.

“We all recognize, and I must acknowledge, that this system is exceedingly safe, but we must remain vigilant and alert at all times,” he stated.