Following the tragic mid-air collision of American Airlines Flight 5342 and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter close to Washington Reagan National Airport on Wednesday evening, officials and the public are urgently searching for explanations regarding what caused the incident.

Numerous theories and speculations are circulating from experts and amateur analysts. While the desire for answers is valid, it’s crucial to acknowledge that some responses require time to be determined.

“In the initial 24 hours, we often have minimal information, and what we think we know can later prove to be incorrect,” stated William J. McGee, a senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, in an interview with YSL News.

As of now, less than a day after the incident, concrete details remain scarce.

“Since we’ve just begun our investigation, we don’t have a substantial amount of information to offer at this moment,” Todd Inman, a member of the National Transportation Safety Board, mentioned during a press briefing on Thursday afternoon. “We will keep you updated with regular information as we learn more.”

Nevertheless, experts confirm that some fundamental facts about the event have already been established.

“What is clear is that the CRJ plane was approaching runway 33 at Reagan and was likely at or below about 500 feet during its short final approach, while the helicopter was moving. There is a designated helicopter route that proceeds along the eastern side of the river, so the flight paths of the plane and the helicopter actually cross, but typically at different altitudes—the variation being only a few hundred feet,” explained Jim Brauchle, an aviation attorney at Motley Rice, in an interview.

That leaves many questions still unanswered.

“Even the most knowledgeable experts currently involved have numerous questions that remain unanswered. They possess more information than we do but still lack complete clarity,” said McGee.

Here are the critical areas experts are likely to investigate, along with the expected timeline for the inquiry.

Were either aircraft in the wrong airspace?

One of the primary questions investigators will probably seek to determine is whether either aircraft was in an inappropriate airspace. Initial evidence from air traffic control communications indicates that the American Airlines flight was adhering to its designated landing route at DCA, while the helicopter seemed to be operating within its authorized area, albeit possibly at an altitude different from what was intended for its path.

“The approach to that runway is quite unique. Aircraft generally fly up the east side of the river and then, about a mile and a half before landing, perform a significant 50-degree turn. At that point, they’re at approximately 490 feet, meaning they cross the river at or below 400 or 450 feet, whereas the helicopter route operates at or below 200 feet,” Brauchle elaborated. “Even if they’re both operating as they should, there’s only about 200 feet of separation, which is minimal.”

During a Thursday press conference, Senator Tammy Duckworth, a Democrat from Illinois, expressed her intent to obtain details regarding the flight paths of both the plane and the helicopter. Duckworth, who has experience flying a Black Hawk, is the ranking member of the U.S. Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation.

McGee voiced similar concerns initially.

“This is one of the busiest airspaces in the U.S. Were they simply in the wrong place at the wrong time? Why was an aircraft making its approach into the path of a plane cleared to land at a major U.S. airport?” he posed.

Was the collision avoidance system operational?

All commercial aircraft in the U.S. must be equipped with a safety tool known as the traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS). While military aircraft aren’t always obligated to have this system functioning while flying in civilian airspace, some of them do have it installed.

One question that investigators will likely pursue is whether the TCAS was operational on the American Eagle aircraft and whether the Black Hawk was equipped with it and had it activated at the time of the collision.

However, experts caution that this system is not infallible.

“When an aircraft is very close to the runway with heavy traffic, it might not trigger the alarm,” Brauchle noted. “When we access the flight data recorder, it will be interesting to determine if the TCAS was activated or issued any warnings.”

Who is to blame for the crash?

Air disasters typically arise from multiple factors. The National Transportation Safety Board, which is at the forefront of the investigation into the crash on Wednesday night, will strive to understand the sequence of events leading to this incident.

A significant question will be identifying the immediate cause of the event.

“Could either crew have acted differently? Was the military helicopter positioned correctly at that point in time?” McGee asked. “It seems to have flown directly into the approach path of an active runway when that just shouldn’t happen at that altitude.”

Duckworth stressed the importance of patience, urging that we “allow the NTSB and FAA to conduct their investigation first.”

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In a communication to employees on Thursday, Robert Isom, CEO of American Airlines, reiterated that the NTSB is the sole authority regarding information about this incident.

“While the investigation progresses—which will take quite some time—we will share any information as it becomes available. It’s essential to recognize that the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) oversees aviation accident investigations. They will be the definitive source for clarity moving forward, and accuracy is paramount,” the letter stated.

Factors like night vision goggles that could have influenced the incident

The time of the incident and various other factors frequently have an impact on accidents, even if they don’t directly cause them.

“I’ve heard reports—though I haven’t confirmed them—that air traffic control was in communication with the helicopter and that it acknowledged having the aircraft in sight,” Brauchle remarked. “While it’s logical to assume they should see a commercial aircraft, at night, you can only see its lights. If the helicopter is only a few hundred feet above ground in a well-lit urban area, it can become easy to mistake the lights you’re looking at.”

The helicopter pilots were also engaged in a night training exercise and may have utilized night vision goggles. The Defense Secretary confirmed in a public statement that night vision goggles were present on the helicopter, but did not clarify whether the pilots were using them during the crash.

“When you involve night flying by the military, especially during training, the pilots often operate with night vision goggles,” observed Robert W. Mann, Jr., a former airline executive and current president of R. W. Mann and Company, which is an independent airline consulting firm. “These devices are imprecise and often susceptible to confusion from ground light interference.”

Both McGee and Brauchle posited that the aircraft may have been in each other’s blind spots.

Brauchle pointed out that due to the American jet making a turn, it might have been “presenting its underside toward the helicopter,” keeping it out of visual range for the jet pilots.

Conversely, he explained that the helicopter could have been beneath the jet at such a position that it didn’t see the plane approaching.

“There was a helicopter accident a few years ago near the Hudson River involving a tour helicopter and another aircraft. Neither observed the other until the last moment. The NTSB conducted a human factors study afterward,” he shared. “Certain areas can be blind spots until you’re almost right on top of the other aircraft, which often leaves little time for a reaction.”

How the investigation will unfold

“Now is not the time for speculation,” said Duckworth. “We need to uncover the facts.”

This investigation will require time. McGee expressed hope that preliminary details may emerge in the coming days, but it’s likely that no official reports will be available for at least a month and that it may take a year or longer before the NTSB releases its conclusive report.

Inman from the NTSB indicated that the agency aims to provide a preliminary report in approximately 30 days.

“We will take the necessary time,” he assured. “Should we uncover any significant issues requiring immediate attention, we will swiftly make those recommendations public.”

In the meantime, McGee stated that it’s essential for travelers to understand that air travel remains safe and that the industry will draw lessons from this incident to enhance safety measures.

“We all acknowledge, and as someone who tends to critique, I’d like to reiterate: this is an exceptionally safe system, but we must continually stay vigilant and alert,” he stated.

(This story was updated due to an earlier inaccuracy.)