President Donald Trump’s threats to implement tariffs on imports from the U.S.’s top three trade partners are expected to slow production and increase costs, even if temporary agreements are reached, as seen with Mexico and Canada.

Trump’s move to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on those from Mexico and Canada has created uncertainty, which is anticipated to elevate prices until a final resolution is achieved, according to Mike Skordeles, who heads U.S. economics at Truist.

While price hikes are expected across various sectors, certain goods will experience increases sooner than others. For example, consumers may face higher costs for perishable items more quickly than for vehicles.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the United States imported 51% of its fresh fruit and 69% of its vegetables from Mexico in 2022. Even a temporary halt on 25% tariffs for these products doesn’t indicate that their prices will remain stable.

“If I were a producer, I’d think it’s necessary to raise prices slightly due to the risk of a potential shutdown in the coming month,” Skordeles noted.

In theory, companies may stockpile some car parts; however, fruits like avocados, which spoil quickly, cannot be stored in advance.

Dr. Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, mentioned that price increases might not reach grocery stores until after the upcoming Super Bowl weekend, suggesting there’s still time to gather ingredients for guacamole.

“Tariff changes are unlikely to affect prices leading up to the Super Bowl, but we’ll observe how things unfold in the following weeks,” Swanson informed YSL News. “This is certainly a year for consumers to be aware of food pricing.”

Oil tariffs will impact costs for most products

Trump’s initially proposed 10% tariff on Canadian oil, which Skordeles estimates could result in a roughly 16 cent increase per gallon, could ultimately hike prices for nearly all goods, as transportation costs rise due to fuel expenses. Retaliatory measures from the three major U.S. trade partners could also pose challenges for American businesses.

“This situation is messy,” Skordeles stated. “There are numerous unintended consequences.”

Tariffs act as a tax on goods exchanged between countries, primarily borne by American businesses in this situation. In a landscape where free trade has been the norm in North America for decades, many supply chains involve products crossing borders before reaching consumers in the U.S.

Trump’s suggested tariffs are expected to disproportionately affect automotive workers and those looking to purchase vehicles, as passenger cars and their components are significant imports from Canada.

Many car components may need to cross the border multiple times during production. Skordeles illustrated this with the example of a car manufacturer transporting transmissions, where each border crossing necessitates a pause for U.S. Customs to verify quantities and ensure the correct tariffs are applied. This added step raises costs — likely to be passed on to consumers — and could delay production, contributing to supply shortages that would further inflate prices.

“ We might see prices rise not only for new cars but also for used ones, as any increased scarcity in the market pushes potential new buyers to consider used options,” Stef Schrader from Cars.com told YSL News. “Vehicles that heavily rely on imported parts or are entirely imported from the impacted countries will likely experience the first price hikes.”

China tariffs are likely to be more permanent

Tariffs on Chinese imports are expected to persist more than those on Canada and Mexico, according to Skordeles. The U.S. has a history of maintaining tariffs on China, which continued throughout Trump’s first term and into President Joe Biden’s administration.

American consumers feel the impact of import tariffs at checkout less if there are domestic replacements available, which the U.S. has sometimes provided in the past.

In instances where no substitutes for imports exist, such as iPhones assembled overseas, Apple successfully advocated for exemptions from Chinese tariffs.

Bailey Schulz contributed to this report. Follow her on X @rachelbarber_