Even with progress in clean energy technologies, global CO2 emissions continue to grow. Researchers from IIASA have played a role in a recent international study that highlights the need to combine technological progress with strong institutional frameworks to devise effective climate policies.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, which requires swift reductions in CO2 emissions and more focus on greenhouse gases other than CO2. Following a decrease due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, global CO2 emissions have shown a steady increase over the past three years.
This research, published in Nature Climate Change, was headed by the Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) at the University of Maryland in collaboration with the IIASA-led ENGAGE project, which is a global group of renowned research teams aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
According to Bas van Ruijven, a co-author of the study and coordinator of the ENGAGE project, “These new insights reveal the significant hurdles we face in achieving the long-term targets of the Paris Agreement given the recent rise in harmful emissions.”
The authors aimed to collaboratively develop knowledge for creating cost-effective, technologically feasible, and socially and politically viable strategies to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. They utilized advanced multi-regional and process-based global integrated assessment models (IAMs) along with 20 different scenario analyses, finding that the capacity of countries to manage climate regulations plays a vital role in determining feasible temperature peaks.
Christoph Bertram, the lead author and CGS Associate Research Professor, explains, “Our comprehensive analysis across eight climate models emphasizes the need to consider the diverse capabilities of countries and regional variations. By integrating institutional limitations with technological and socio-cultural elements, we demonstrate that the most viable paths to meet the Paris climate goals diverge from commonly used cost-effective measures.”
Keywan Riahi, co-author and Director of IIASA’s Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, adds, “From an international equity perspective, this implies that wealthy nations like the US and the EU must not only achieve their net-zero goals but also foster collaborative efforts to strengthen governance and institutional frameworks in vulnerable regions.”
The study incorporates governance indicators specific to each region to highlight the potential for effective implementation of climate mitigation policies. This novel methodology builds upon earlier efforts within the ENGAGE project to evaluate feasible transformation pathways for attaining the Paris Climate Agreement’s objectives, providing a foundation for new scenario developments. The various tools and methodologies that emerged from the ENGAGE project to explore the multiple dimensions of decarbonization feasibility are now accessible to policymakers through a Summary for Policymakers. The latest research offers a refined framework for future studies to portray institutional capacities in different regions and time frames.
Co-author Elina Brutschin, a researcher in the IIASA Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions Research Group, stated, “These new scenarios assess the consequences of numerous countries possibly lacking the institutional capacity to implement bold climate initiatives. However, through additional strategies such as urgent demand-side transformations, particularly in affluent nations, alongside swift electrification, it might still be achievable to keep peak temperatures below 1.7°C.”
Gunnar Luderer, co-author and lead of the Energy Systems Group at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and Professor of Global Energy Systems Analysis at the Technical University of Berlin, noted, “Recent advancements in low-carbon technologies like solar energy, wind turbines, and electric vehicles indicate that the technical ability to achieve climate neutrality is less of an obstacle now. The main challenge lies in how promptly governments can elevate their climate policy ambitions.”
This research emphasizes the crucial need to align technological innovations with institutional capacities when crafting effective climate policies, indicating that a lack of institutional capacity could prevent even reaching the 2°C target, while a strengthened global institutional framework could significantly increase the chances of achieving the 1.6°C target by 25-45%.
As the drive toward the 1.5°C objective intensifies, it is crucial for worldwide actors to map out strategies that enhance the practicability of climate actions and lower carbon costs. The insights from this study are instrumental for informing ongoing climate policy discussions and future scenario analyses, thus aiding informed decision-making regarding global climate ambitions.
