Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, made a significant error by choosing Senator JD Vance from Ohio as his running mate. His excessive confidence in the competition against President Joe Biden caused him to focus too much on maintaining the MAGA legacy.

This mistake became apparent once Biden announced he would step aside and support Vice President Kamala Harris. The dynamics of the upcoming presidential election altered rapidly.

Harris then selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and their campaign appears to be gaining positive momentum, despite some criticism from Republicans concerning her nomination.

The political landscape shifted, polling numbers changed, leaving Trump with Vance. However, Vance’s selection is just a symptom of a larger issue that Trump has faced for years: his arrogance in choosing candidates and Republicans’ tendency to go along with it.

As a result of Trump’s arrogance, both the election and his reputation are at risk ‒ providing the Democrats with the advantage they are currently experiencing as the Democratic National Convention approaches on Monday. Trump has continuously been his own worst enemy.

Democrats couldn’t have asked for a better ticket from the Republicans

Just a month prior, the election appeared almost sealed. Biden was suffering from a poor debate performance and his approval ratings were at a record low. Polls showed unfavorable results for him.

Meanwhile, audiences had recently witnessed Trump surviving an assassination attempt, defiantly raising his fist to supporters after being injured just days before the Republican National Convention. Trump seemed poised for victory.

Then, in just a few weeks, Trump made the choice of Vance, Biden exited the race, and Harris took charge of the Democratic campaign, seemingly gaining the upper hand in the election.

Harris gained back much of the ground Biden had lost to Trump. Though polls had her nearly even with Trump, many felt she would face significant challenges in restoring Americans’ trust that had dwindled with Biden.

However, since that time, Harris has consistently climbed in the polls, slowly but surely moving ahead of Trump.

To highlight the significant shift in momentum, on July 15, Trump had an implied 66.2% probability of winning the upcoming election. Since then, that probability has dropped by over 20 percentage points, placing him behind Harris.

If you had asked me a month ago about current polling predictions, I would have thought Trump was on track for a decisive win. Even if I had known for sure Harris would be stepping in, I doubt my outlook would have changed much.

What’s driving Harris’ success? Trump.

This considerable shift in momentum leads me to wonder: What exactly are the Democrats doing so right?

In my view, they are not doing much of anything. Harris’ gradual rise in the polls seems to stem mainly from her avoiding anything particularly controversial, coupled with a dissatisfaction among Democrats towards Biden.

Nevertheless, the primary factor benefiting the Democrats is Trump himself, who has become a liability for the party.

Apart from his unexpected win in 2016, Trump has continuously hurt the Republican party’s standing since entering the political arena.

During the 2018 midterms, Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives.

In 2020, when Trump lost the presidency, Republicans lost the Senate and failed to reclaim the House. Even more damaging for Trump, Democratic House candidates performed better than Biden in national polls, suggesting that the top ranking candidate was the core issue.

The 2022 midterms reinforced this theory; what was expected to be a substantial Republican surge ended up being minimal. Although Republicans reclaimed the House, they couldn’t recover control of the Senate, largely due to Examining Trump’s Unsuccessful Endorsements Nationwide.

As we approach the 2024 elections, Trump’s overreaching confidence and self-importance may once again jeopardize the Republican Party’s chances at the polls. By endorsing candidates like Vance and consolidating support from the Republican National Committee to align with his platform, Trump has undermined the broad appeal that Republicans could have leveraged in light of President Biden’s unpopular tenure.

Instead of fostering Republican unity and enhancing electoral prospects, Trump has further divided his own party, effectively transforming the GOP into a platform centered around himself. Rather than attempt to unite the various factions within the GOP that are skeptical of his leadership, he has opted to distance the movement from the foundational principles that propelled his 2016 campaign.

Trump and Vance possess such limited appeal that even the extremely liberal Walz hasn’t considerably aided Republican efforts. While Harris faces her own challenges as a presidential candidate, they pale in comparison to the issues that Trump carries into the election.

This chaotic campaign environment only paves the way for further electoral difficulties. Trump still has a chance to win, but a defeat in 2024 would be catastrophic for his legacy, marking the fourth consecutive election where Trump has negatively impacted his party’s success.

Ultimately, the most beneficial scenario for Democrats is the inefficiency of the GOP coupled with Trump’s inflated ego. This has been consistently true throughout.