Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Key Insights for 2024
The start of the 2024 NFL season is just around the corner, and it’s the perfect time to put together your championship fantasy football team.
Much of the fantasy football drafting approach is built upon the experiences and outcomes from the 2023 season. The previous year’s performances heavily influence the valuation of players in each position and how they compare in your draft. You can leverage that information to fine-tune your draft strategy.
Before heading into your draft, ensure you have a clear plan for both your quarterback and tight end positions. It’s no surprise that running backs and wide receivers tend to dominate the early rounds of the draft, as you’ll likely want at least two or three from each category.
However, your “single starters”—the quarterback and tight end—should be carefully considered for optimal roster placement. These positions can really impact your success, as you typically field only one player per position. Understanding their potential will help you build a stronger team.
Selecting Your Fantasy Football Quarterback
This season features two standout quarterbacks: Josh Allen, who has been a top player for four consecutive years, and Jalen Hurts. Allen tends to be selected early, while Hurts is generally available in the third round. The following notable quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, and C.J. Stroud, will typically be drafted between the fourth and sixth rounds.
The next group of quarterbacks will start getting taken around the middle of the draft, and they offer similar levels of risk and potential reward. Mahomes may see a dip in his selection based on a less stellar past year, but having a reliable quarterback can significantly enhance your roster’s scoring potential, as it’s often the highest-scoring position among starters.
The past few seasons have popularized the “late-round quarterback” strategy, where drafters wait to grab their starter, mixing and matching quarterbacks instead. Avoid this trap. Secure a top-tier quarterback who can consistently perform each week and maximize your scoring potential.
Fantasy Football Running Back Draft Tactics
There are viable running back options available well into the seventh round or later. However, the overall quality starts to diminish significantly. By the latter rounds, you may find yourself with rookie players, those in committee roles, or handcuff options for starters. Keep an eye on shifts in starting roles due to injuries or changes in performance, as rookies like Trey Benson (Cardinals), Blake Corum (Rams), Marshawn Lloyd (Packers), Bucky Irving (Buccaneers), or Ray Davis (Bills) might become starting options unexpectedly.
As a guideline, try to secure two running backs by Round 7, with three being even more advantageous. Remember, the 30th running back may score significantly fewer points—about 50 less—than the 30th wide receiver, and that disparity remains constant. Running backs tend to be the first positions to dwindle in fantasy football drafts.
Understanding the Value of Wide Receivers in Drafts
The trend remains unchanged from last season: wide receivers are among the first picks in the initial four rounds, with between 25 and 30 typically selected. This means if you haven’t chosen at least two by Round 5, you’re likely to miss out on top-value WR1 and WR2 players.
Given the points allocated for receptions, this situation can be problematic. Aim for at least six wide receivers selected per round, knowing that some managers will select three wideouts within their first four picks. If you want your WR1 to provide a competitive advantage, you need to secure a pick no later than eighth overall in the first round. The silver lining is that this position is well-stocked, as NFL teams often feature multiple wide receivers in their lineup.
By the sixth round, you may consider players like Calvin Ridley, Christian Watson, Chris Godwin, or Keenan Allen—all of whom offer potential upside but come with their share of risk. Even in the 12th round, you can still find viable options like Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, Josh Palmer, or Romeo Doubs.
This year, the league saw a surge of talent among wide receivers, with at least eight rookie wideouts expected to be drafted in your fantasy league. However, only Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals), Keon Coleman (Bills), and Malik Nabers (Giants) appear to have a clear shot at becoming their team’s leading wide receiver. The rest may struggle with volume in their inaugural season.
Don’t Overrate Tight Ends in Fantasy Football
In previous seasons, there were usually about three elite fantasy tight ends, while others offered minimal differentiation or value. The choice often boiled down to either selecting a top-3 tight end or accepting a lack of impact from the position. However, this assumption has shifted. Last year’s rookie, Sam LaPorta, led the tight end category but was closely followed by Evan Engram and Travis Kelce, the latter experiencing a notable decline in performance. The scoring gap between the top tight end and the eighth-ranked player (Cole Kmet) was only 55 points, translating to a mere three points per game.
There has been a noticeable increase in skilled tight ends who mainly play as receivers, and offenses are adapting to utilize them more frequently. The point disparity between the top tight end and the eighth one in 2022 was 169 points; in 2021, it was 133 points and 163 points in 2020. It’s no longer essential to secure a top-3 tight end to impact your team positively. Tight ends are typically selected later in drafts (around Round 3), with the eighth tight end often still available until Round 7. There are more strategic ways to use your picks in the earlier rounds rather than choosing a tight end.