Scientists have created new guidelines and tools that could greatly enhance the ability to predict dangerous flash floods.
Scientists have created new guidelines and tools that could greatly enhance the ability to predict dangerous flash floods.
Recent research from a global team of climate specialists reveals that intense, localized episodes of heavy rainfall can result from a swift upward movement of air through clouds. This finding confirms that such upward air movements can be anticipated. The team has designed an innovative modeling system that fundamentally changes how we recognize and forecast life-threatening short-lived extreme rainfall events. Improved forecasting of these severe downpours will provide vital extra time for communities to prepare for extreme weather, which can lead to catastrophic flash floods, similar to those witnessed in Boscastle in August 2004 or in London in August 2022.
This study was published in the journal Weather and Climate Extremes and was spearheaded by the Met Office in collaboration with Newcastle University, along with contributions from Universidad de Costa Rica in San Jose, Costa Rica, and Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, Poland.
Paul Davies, the lead author, who is a Principal Fellow at the Met Office and a Visiting Professor at Newcastle University’s School of Engineering, stated: “The new model is designed to increase the UK’s ability to handle extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change. This innovative approach addresses the critical need for better prediction skills and will assist not only UK communities but also those globally in managing the risks tied to more frequent extreme weather occurrences.”
Paul further explained, “To comprehend these extreme rainfall events, we have made an exciting discovery regarding the three-layered structure of the atmosphere, consisting of Moist Absolute Unstable Layers situated between a stable upper layer and a nearly stable lower layer.”
The focus of the research is on the atmospheric characteristics of settings prone to extreme rainfall, specifically examining the thermodynamics tied to rainfall processes occurring within an hour. It highlights a unique three-layered atmospheric structure vital for understanding localized downpours and the larger atmospheric behaviors that might lead to earlier predictions of extreme rainfall events and flash floods.
Hayley Fowler, a co-author and Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University, expressed her excitement about leading such groundbreaking research, stating, “This research represents a paradigm shift in our understanding of extreme rainfall processes. We plan to further improve this model to create an operational system that supports the UN’s goal for Early Warnings for All, which aims to protect everyone from hazardous weather, water, or climate events through life-saving warning systems by 2027. Given that human-induced climate change is resulting in increasingly extreme weather patterns, the demand for precise early warning systems is more important now than ever.”
This research holds the promise of developing an ‘extreme rainfall warning system’ that can bolster forecasters’ and users’ abilities to detect and predict perilous flash floods, ultimately enhancing public safety and preparedness.
The Met Office serves as a Category 2 Responder and is tasked with alerting emergency responses, governments, and the public regarding potential dangers from severe weather and the associated threats to life and property. Flooding can have significant consequences, and the Met Office collaborates closely with partner organizations, such as the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, and local resilience forums, to support the distribution of flood forecasts and warnings. The Met Office is also a participant in the Natural Hazards Partnership consortium, which provides coordinated assessments, research, and guidance on natural hazards for governments and resilience communities across the UK.
