In the past, an NFL head coach might find themselves in trouble if their fourth year ended without a playoff appearance. However, the expectation for stability and patience has diminished in a league where rapid changes are common – just ask the Houston Texans.

These days, a coach could be shown the door after a poor start to their first season, as Nathaniel Hackett and Frank Reich can attest. Failing to reach the playoffs after three years? You’re likely out. Regular playoff appearances with lackluster results? That earns you a shrug. Even legendary coaches like Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll saw their tenures end following disappointing performances in 2023.

“That’s part of the business in the NFL,” stated Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, who hasn’t broken Dallas’ championship drought despite winning 12 games each of the last three seasons. “We’re looking forward to the opportunity ahead of us.”

“The only certainty we have is 17 games.”

And that might not be enough for McCarthy.

Coaches can expect their job security to be evaluated year-round, and it appears that seven of them – about the number of head coaches replaced each season – are entering 2024 in a precarious position, with their seats heating up:

7. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

Before 2024, both the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence and the Panthers’ Bryce Young, who were drafted No. 1 overall, had their head coaches dismissed before their rookie seasons were completed. Circumstances were indeed challenging, particularly in Jacksonville under Urban Meyer. Speculation around Eberflus’ job rose with the expected arrival of top draft pick Caleb Williams this spring. If the rookie’s first season resembles Young’s forgettable campaign, it’s likely that the Bears, like the Panthers, will swiftly search for a head coach familiar with offense, which Eberflus is not.

6. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills

McDermott’s seat is warming slightly, given his leadership in securing four consecutive AFC East titles and five straight playoff appearances. However, the Bills have only progressed past the divisional round once in his seven years. In 2023, he began calling defensive plays while also midseason changing his offensive coordinator. Although roster changes due to salary cap constraints could adjust expectations, McDermott will face scrutiny if this championship-starved franchise doesn’t make progress soon as QB Josh Allen’s prime continues to dwindle.

5. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

“Winning is our expectation, and it starts now,” conveyed owner Shad Khan in July, after a significant investment over the offseason. “You need to be in the playoffs every season.” Keep this in mind, Coach. Pederson achieved a 9-8 record in 2022, successfully winning the AFC South. However, he matched that record again in 2023 with a disappointing 1-5 finish, leaving the Jaguars out of the playoffs. Notably, Pederson has only exceeded nine regular-season wins once, leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl title in 2017. While he may not have an official mandate, he would do well to heed Khan’s words – with C.J. Stroud’s Texans and Anthony Richardson’s Colts also in the mix, the competition will be tough within the division.

4. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

Having previously struggled in Oakland, Allen returns under much scrutiny with a career record of 24-46 and no playoff appearances. Although his defense has outperformed the offense since Drew Brees retired, Allen must initiate a successful overhaul for the Saints or it’s hard to imagine him staying for another season.

3. Robert Saleh, New York Jets

Following high hopes in 2023, Saleh and GM Joe Douglas earned another chance after QB Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles injury derailed the season just four plays in. Saleh deserves recognition for leading the team to seven wins in each of the past two years, all while overseeing a top-tier defense despite inconsistent quarterback performances. However, those accomplishments won’t suffice moving forward. “We have a lot of talent, and we need to use it effectively.  This is our moment to shine. We must do better than seven wins,” owner Woody Johnson stated during Super Bowl week. With the Jets now seemingly stronger than ever, as per Rodgers’ comments, it’s crucial for Saleh to convert that potential into success to secure his future with the team through 2025.

2. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

Sirianni exemplifies the precarious nature of coaching; his record of 36-20 over three seasons has seen him lead the team to the playoffs each year, including a close call in Super Bowl 57. However, he and his staff were considered underperforming in a 2023 season that started brightly at 10-1 but ended poorly. As he heads into 2024, Sirianni will work with his third set of coordinators since 2022, this time with more seasoned staff in OC Kellen Moore and DC Vic Fangio. However, losing veteran leaders C Jason Kelce and DT Fletcher Cox to retirement poses additional challenges.

With DE Brandon Graham announcing his plans to retire next year, head coach Sirianni may need to take greater control as younger players like QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown step up to assume leadership roles—something they seemingly fell short of accomplishing in 2023, occasionally playing outside of the team’s strategy to Philadelphia’s disadvantage. Both Sirianni and Hurts must demonstrate that their partnership can succeed, especially after a recent ESPN article suggested that their relationship had become “fractured” by the last season’s end. This group is experiencing significant emotional changes, but they cannot afford to underperform in terms of talent again, particularly with new additions like RB Saquon Barkley, DE Bryce Huff, WR Jahan Dotson, and several impressive rookies joining the squad. A third early postseason exit in four years would not bode well for Sirianni’s future.

1. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

The last time we saw McCarthy coach a significant game, his team suffered a crushing defeat against the Packers in a wild-card playoff game at AT&T Stadium, ending an 18-game home winning streak for “America’s Team” and marking a third consecutive postseason exit filled with disappointment. Following the surprising and convincing defeat to the young Packers, along with the potential availability of Belichick, McCarthy’s return for what is likely his final year on contract in Dallas was far from guaranteed.

Yet, he remains at the helm, albeit with a team hampered by salary cap limitations and uncertain about QB Dak Prescott’s future. Nevertheless, they are guided by owner Jerry Jones’ frequently reiterated “all in” philosophy, striving to become the first team in 20 years to win back-to-back NFC East titles while trying to break Dallas’ nearly three-decade drought from Super Bowl Sundays. Although Jones has not issued a direct ultimatum, it is hard to imagine a situation where a lame duck like McCarthy could still have his position in 2025 without securing at least one playoff victory this season.

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Follow YSL News Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.