WASHINGTON – Allan Lichtman, a historian known for predicting nine of the last ten presidential elections with precision, has announced his choice for who will take the presidency this year.

Drumroll, please: it’s Vice President Kamala Harris.

Lichtman shared his forecast in a video featured by The New York Times, explaining that his prediction relies on a set of thirteen keys—essentially “big picture true or false questions” that assess the performance and stability of the party in power.

The thirteen keys include factors such as:

• Whether the ruling party gained House seats in the midterms.
• If the current president is seeking a second term.
• If the ruling party is free from primary challenges.
• The presence of a strong third-party candidate.
• The state of the short-term economy.
• The long-term growth of the economy compared to the previous two terms.
• Major shifts made by the ruling party in national policies.
• Ongoing social unrest during the administration’s term.
• If the current administration is free of scandal and has a charismatic leader.
• If the challenger is lacking in charisma.
• If the incumbent has a strong public presence.
• If the current administration faced significant foreign policy failures.
• If there were foreign policy successes for the current administration.

Currently, eight of the keys favor Harris, while three are in Trump’s favor.

“Foreign policy is complex, and these keys can change,” Lichtman noted in the video. “The Biden administration is heavily involved in the Gaza conflict, which poses a significant humanitarian challenge without a clear resolution. Yet, if the foreign policy keys were to flip against Harris, that would only result in five negative keys, which isn’t enough to allow Donald Trump to take back the White House.”

Thus, Lichtman concludes that Harris is poised to win. “That’s my call for this race, but the final decision is up to you—make sure to get out and vote.”

Lichtman has accurately forecasted the outcomes of nearly all elections over the past 50 years, with the exception of the 2000 election where Republican George W. Bush triumphed over Democrat Al Gore.

Contributing: Karissa Waddick