In a rather unsettling update that coincides with Friday the 13th: the asteroid Apophis may have a minuscule possibility of hitting Earth in just five years when it approaches closely on April 13, 2029 — yes, a Friday the 13th. However, it would require an extraordinary stroke of bad luck.

No one should panic just yet. For Apophis, which is named after the Egyptian god of chaos, to actually threaten Earth, it would need to be struck by another asteroid at a precise angle to veer it onto a collision course.

What are those odds? Approximately one-in-2-billion.

This revelation comes from astronomer Paul Wiegert, who had previously dismissed the risk of a collision altogether in a study from March. Now, Wiegert, based at Western University in Canada, has reconsidered the risk of Apophis being hit by smaller space rocks that frequently collide with Earth.

If that scenario were to unfold — and that’s a big “if” — there’s a tiny chance Apophis could be redirected toward Earth, as detailed in a new study released in August in The Planetary Science Journal.

Study reveals Apophis could potentially hit Earth, but odds are incredibly slim

Astronomers have been monitoring the infamous Apophis since it was discovered in 2004, initially perceiving it as a substantial threat to Earth.

However, further observations led astronomers to rule out the possibility of an impact during a close flyby of Earth in April 2029. They have also found no risk of impact in another flyby in 2036.

Now, Wiegert suggests the chance of Apophis colliding with Earth isn’t entirely nil.

In his latest study, Wiegert utilized computer models to estimate the likelihood of an unidentified asteroid impacting Apophis within the next five years, which could redirect it onto a collision course with Earth. He also examined the size of an object required to divert Apophis from its trajectory and towards Earth after 2029.

The concerning part? A small space rock — roughly 11 feet in diameter — could adjust Apophis’s path enough to make it head toward Earth, according to his findings.

The reassuring news? The likelihood of another asteroid hitting Apophis at all is under one-in-a-million. Even more reassuring is the projection that such an event leading to a crash course with Earth in 2029 is even less likely, at a staggering one-in-2-billion, as stated by Wiegert.

Astronomers will track Apophis again in 2027

It will take another three years for astronomers to confirm that there’s no potential impact when Apophis becomes visible again in 2027.

The nearly quarter-mile-long, peanut-shaped asteroid is currently obscured from view due to its close proximity to the sun. Once it reappears in 2027, astronomers will better assess the possibility of any course alterations leading up to 2029, when Apophis will have its closest approach to Earth ever — a record-setting event for asteroids of its size that scientists have had prior knowledge of.

“The deflection of Apophis by a small asteroid onto a collision course with Earth in 2029 — while extremely unlikely — is likely to be quickly disproved by simple telescopic observations when Apophis becomes visible in 2027,” Wiegert concluded.

NASA and ESA prepare to observe Apophis

Additionally, both NASA and the European Space Agency are planning to deploy unmanned spacecraft to study Apophis during its flyby in five years.

Nasa’s OSIRIS-REx, which collected and returned a sample from the asteroid Bennu in September, has been renamed OSIRIS-APophis EXplorer (OSIRIS-APEX) and is set on a course to intersect with Apophis in 2029. In June of that year, OSIRIS-APEX plans to spend 18 months mapping Apophis’s surface and analyzing its chemical composition, as outlined by NASA.

The European Space Agency, which is NASA’s European counterpart, is preparing to launch its own spacecraft named Ramses.

The Ramses spacecraft is scheduled to be ready for launch a year in advance and will encounter Apophis before it circles back from Earth’s vicinity. During its journey, the spacecraft will analyze how the asteroid’s surface changes due to its close interaction with Earth, as stated by the European Space Agency in July.

This mission is part of the ongoing efforts by NASA and various space agencies to shield humanity from potential hazards posed by asteroids and other celestial objects such as comets.

In September 2022, NASA executed a deliberate collision of a spacecraft with the small asteroid Dimorphos, traveling at about 14,000 mph.

Although Dimorphos was not a threat to Earth, this mission marked the initial trial of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test, or DART. According to the space agency, should a threatening asteroid be on a collision path with Earth, the DART technique could be essential for redirecting and altering the asteroid’s trajectory.