Five concerns for the Dolphins’ future if Tua Tagovailoa can’t return following his concussion
It’s wise to keep priorities straight, especially when it involves Miami Dolphins’ Pro Bowler Tua Tagovailoa. Currently facing at least his third concussion within two years after his exit during Thursday night’s match against the Buffalo Bills, the primary concern should be his immediate and long-term health.
When reporters sought updates about Tagovailoa’s condition from a visibly tired Mike McDaniel on Friday morning, they approached the topic delicately while discussing various football scenarios. McDaniel attempted to manage his frustration while recognizing the significance of these questions, which, despite their importance, seemed trivial considering the critical nature of Tagovailoa’s recovery.
“The key factor in any decisions—whether it’s about playing time, injured reserve, or any other considerations—rests with Tua,” McDaniel stated. “His input, along with guidance from neuroscience experts, will drive those decisions.
“I don’t know what the timeline looks like. I’m open to uncertainty because my main goal is to prioritize what’s best for Tua.”
However, if Tagovailoa cannot play again this season—or potentially ever—it raises significant concerns for the franchise that invested heavily in him over the summer.
Here are five reasons why the Dolphins could face serious challenges if their quarterback is unable to return.
Which free agent quarterbacks could the Dolphins acquire in 2024?
While not ideal, McDaniel acknowledged that the search for another quarterback is already in motion, although he plans to start with Skylar Thompson, with Tim Boyle likely stepping up from the practice squad.
“The organization has a lot of faith in Skylar,” McDaniel remarked. “However, we are exploring other options and weighing the pros and cons of new quarterbacks to best support the team. For now, Skylar is set to be our next option.”
So, who could they potentially bring in?
Ryan Tannehill, 36, Miami’s first-round pick from 12 years ago, stands out as the most experienced passer available in the free-agent market, boasting a Pro Bowl accolade. Given his decent accuracy (64.3% completion rate), athletic ability, and background, he might fit well within McDaniel’s system. Nonetheless, Tannehill’s performance has declined significantly over his last three seasons with the Tennessee Titans, likely explaining his current lack of a contract.
Other notable free agents include names like Blaine Gabbert, Brian Hoyer, AJ McCarron, and Trevor Siemian. However, none of these players truly match the skill level required to adequately replace Tagovailoa.
Mike White, who played for Miami last season and started for the New York Jets in 2021 and 2022, currently finds himself on the Bills’ practice squad after being released by Miami in August, providing a potential yet limited option.
Unfortunately, very few enticing short-term solutions appear to be on the horizon.
What free agent quarterbacks could the Dolphins consider in 2025?
The possibility that Tagovailoa might have to retire prematurely is a lingering thought, with former players, media, and even teammates pondering whether it would be wise for him to step away from the game, especially given his previous concussion while playing at Alabama. Should that occur, acquiring Dak Prescott—recently established as the league’s first $60 million quarterback—would not be feasible.
While both seasoned veterans and emerging quarterbacks typically become available during the annual free-agent frenzy every March, Prescott’s recent contract with the Dallas Cowboys eliminates the chance for him to be part of the Dolphins’ plans, considering the potential for an unprecedented spending spree for last season’s MVP runner-up. The upcoming offseason is expected to feature former Dolphin Jacoby Brissett, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Joe Flacco, Jimmy Garoppolo, Taylor Heinicke, Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Drew Lock, Marcus Mariota, Mason Rudolph, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson, and Jameis Winston as available players.
While this group includes a few former franchise quarterbacks, it is unlikely that anyone among them could become a true replacement for Tagovailoa.
Which quarterbacks could the Dolphins draft in 2025?
This is an early consideration, reflecting both Tagovailoa’s uncertain future and the potential quality of next year’s quarterback draft class. If Tua isn’t able to continue playing and with the lack of dependable options in free agency, the draft may become the Dolphins’ best route to find a replacement.
As it stands, there doesn’t appear to be a standout quarterback prospect entering the draft next year, which means a potentially strong Dolphins team that made the playoffs in 2022 and 2023 could face difficulties moving forward.
Currently, securing a top quarterback isn’t likely to require exorbitant costs, and might not even be essential. Prospects like Georgia’s Carson Beck, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders are expected to be first-round draft picks.
However, that would mean Miami might not be able to recruit a player with the same potential as Tua Tagovailoa, the 5th overall pick in 2020, who has begun to realize his abilities under coach Mike McDaniel’s guidance.
What would be the financial impact of releasing Tua Tagovailoa?
One of the worst-case scenarios – albeit hypothetical – would arise if Tagovailoa wishes to keep playing while the Dolphins think otherwise. Should the team need to let go of a player who just signed a substantial four-year, $212.4 million contract this summer, they would face a daunting dead cap penalty of nearly $84 million. This burden could be lessened with a post-June 1 release designation or if Tagovailoa decides to retire. Still, it would represent a costly and unforeseen separation.
Could a rapid rebuild happen if Tua Tagovailoa departs?
It doesn’t appear likely.
The factors mentioned indicate that finding a replacement for Tua would be quite difficult. Even if GM Chris Grier sought to trade other assets to kickstart a rebuild or try to secure an experienced quarterback, it would be a considerable challenge. Miami’s prime assets, receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, both received lucrative contract extensions recently, carrying cap implications of at least $15 million upon trade, and losing them would significantly weaken the offense. Younger players like safety Jevon Holland or running back De’Von Achane could be easier to trade contract-wise, but their currently lower cap hits make them valuable pieces for future development.
Ultimately, the priority remains ensuring Tagovailoa has a safe and healthy career. If that means he needs to take steps to extend it, that’s even better. But there’s a chance that the state of his health could inversely affect the Dolphins’ performance.
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Follow Nate Davis of YSL News Sports on X, formerly known as Twitter, @ByNateDavis.