MLB playoffs: Is it better to be the ‘hot team’ or will the favorites reclaim their form?
As we enter mid-September, we find ourselves in the third year of MLB’s expanded playoff system, a format that has contributed to unpredictability in determining pennant and World Series champions.
This has led to some overreactions based on a two-year trend that might not be representative of the future.
In both 2022 and 2023, the third wild card from the National League – basically the last qualifying team – went on a hot streak and made it all the way to the World Series. The Texas Rangers, last year’s World Series champions, also had a successful run starting from the wild-card round.
This unexpected success has sparked the belief that participating in the best-of-three wild-card series might actually be more advantageous than having a direct entry into the Division Series, along with the five-day break that can disrupt a team’s momentum.
However, the excitement surrounding the 83-win Diamondbacks and the 87-win Phillies for the NL pennant overlooks a few important points.
The most significant is the math: Would you prefer to win five games to move to the League Championship Series, or just three? Also, could you handle the pressure of recovering from a 2-0 or 2-1 deficit, or would that lead to an early exit from the season?
Moreover, the fixation on wild-card winners going deep into the playoffs neglects the reality that for every underdog that shines in October, there’s another team that’s eliminated just a couple of days after entering the postseason.
“After 162 games, any time off is beneficial for your body. I have a hard time believing in the idea of the ‘hot team’ – strong teams will always find a way to win,” says Rays pitcher Zack Littell, who experienced two wild-card series sweeps in the previous years. “A break of three or five days after playing so many games won’t change your competitive skills. It’s not like spring training where you’ve been off for months and need to relearn how to play together. That time just keeps you with your teammates and still going to the field.”
“I don’t believe that a five-day break significantly impacts your ability to compete.”
‘It can end pretty quickly’
A broader analysis suggests that dropping to the wild-card series turns your entire season into a sequence of must-win games, regardless of the best-of-three format. Teams that won Game 1 in wild-card series have gone on to win all eight matchups, with seven of those resulting in sweeps. The only exception was in 2022 when the New York Mets managed to win Game 2 against the Padres before losing in Game 3.
The hectic nature of many wild-card entrants, often fighting for playoff spots until the last week, can lead to swift exits.
The Miami Marlins clinched their playoff position in Pittsburgh on the second last day of the 2023 season, just like the Diamondbacks, and faced fellow wild-card team Philadelphia. They had to wait and see if they would need to make up a suspended game in New York right before the playoffs began.
Instead, they traveled to Pennsylvania for their wild-card clash against Philadelphia, which resulted in a 4-1 and 7-1 defeat.
“Under the current format, there’s so much downtime, but it’s an opportunity for players to recover,” notes Marlins infielder Jake Burger. “After 162 games, entering Philadelphia requires a shift into playoff mode. The urgency to win Game 1 is critical, but momentum plays a huge role in this game.”
“When you’re facing three games instead of five, it can be challenging to shift momentum.”
The Rays are well aware of this phenomenon.
In 2022, their pitching staff was outstanding in Cleveland, throwing 23 innings without allowing a run in 21 of those innings. But just two key hits from Jose Ramirez and Oscar Gonzalez led to narrow 2-1 and 1-0 victories for the Guardians, cutting Tampa Bay’s season short.
Last year, the Rangers caught fire against the Rays, winning 4-0 and 7-1 to end their season and beginning a seven-game winning streak in the playoffs. And in consecutive seasons, staying active in the postseason didn’t boost the Rays’ performance.
“Postseason baseball is thrilling and can end swiftly,” says Rays reliever Garrett Cleavinger, who played in both games at Cleveland in 2022 and has considered how rested teams might combat the risk of rust. “It’s a delicate balance. While you might not want to push yourself hard if it’s unnecessary, a few days off can help players regain their strength. But it is equally important to stay sharp, creating a challenge for teams to maintain both.”
Focus on Matchups
Nevertheless, there is one main objective for contenders in the final stretch.
“Everyone in here is focused on winning the division,” says Orioles pitcher Zach Eflin. “There’s no situation in baseball where we would shy away from that.”
Having reached the playoffs for the third consecutive year, Eflin, who played a crucial role in the Phillies’ 2022 postseason run and was the starter in Game 2 for the Rays last year, is poised to be a Game 2 starter for the Orioles, who are two games behind the Yankees in the AL East.
Their fate of competing in the wild-card series or the ALDS will be decided in the last two weeks. The Orioles exemplified the challenges of ‘rust’
The concept in the ’23 ALDS saw the team being easily defeated by the Rangers in three matches.
“In Philly in ’22, we thrived by continuing to play. We hit our stride towards the end and just kept the momentum going,” Eflin stated. “However, with the Rays, we encountered a very strong (Texas) squad. They were hitting the ball hard, and when they came to Baltimore, they maintained their performance.”
If you’re searching for an underdog that might become the surprise team in ’24, you might not find the answers in these last two weeks. Eflin’s ’22 Phillies finished the final month with a record of 14-14 and suffered a slump, losing 10 out of 13 games in late September, which put their playoff chances at risk, before ultimately winning four out of five for their 87th victory.
Meanwhile, the ’23 Diamondbacks had a decent September with a record of 15-8, but they lost their last four games, even after securing their playoff spot.
It might be more useful to view a weakened opponent as a potential opportunity. Arizona got a significant advantage before its wild-card series when Milwaukee Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff was ruled out due to a shoulder injury requiring surgery, which left the stunned Brewers reeling.
During the NLDS, the Dodgers faced a similar pitching disadvantage, as Game 1 starter Clayton Kershaw would need shoulder surgery after the season. However, before that, the D-backs capitalized, scoring six runs in the first inning against him, before outscoring Los Angeles 19-6 in a three-game sweep.
Arizona carried that momentum all the way to Game 5 of the World Series. So, maybe the signal we should watch for isn’t a team likely to be rusty, but rather a wild card, perhaps a No. 3, that had to fight hard to stay in the game through October and finds itself with advantageous matchups during the playoffs.
Nonetheless, this is just the third year of the expanded playoffs. October will reveal if this is the year when the rested teams seek their revenge.
“There’s no definitive answer,” remarked Rays manager Kevin Cash. “The main goal is just to get in, and do everything within your power to make that happen.
“And perhaps allow the momentum from a strong month to take you further than you might have anticipated.”