The sight of Florida State’s head coach, Mike Norvell, standing still and expressionless, grappling with his shock and frustration after the Seminoles were overlooked for the College Football Playoff last December, marks a pivotal moment for the team.

Prior to this, the Seminoles seemed poised for success. Their hopes of winning a national championship felt tangible; the brand was revitalized, and their tradition was back in action. Exciting times were ahead. Go ‘Noles!

However, the events of December 3, 2023, had a profound emotional impact that caught everyone off guard.

For practical college football enthusiasts, it wasn’t shocking that a flawless 13-0 Florida State team, missing star quarterback Jordan Travis, was excluded from the playoff, especially with SEC champion Alabama being selected instead. Depending on team loyalties, the situation might have felt unjust, but choosing a strong team that defeated top-ranked Georgia over another without its best player made logical sense.

Nevertheless, Florida State’s community—from dedicated fans to athletics director Michael Alford—reacted to the snubbing as if it were all part of a conspiracy.

They harassed ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit, who was not involved in the decision-making. They assigned blame to ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, who had no power to change the outcome, even if he had barged into the CFP committee room to plead the Seminoles’ case.

This uproar lasted for days, then weeks, and eventually turned into months.

As a result, Florida State’s program has struggled to bounce back.

From clinching an undefeated season after the last year’s ACC championship, the Seminoles have now suffered four consecutive defeats, including Saturday’s disheartening 20-12 loss to Memphis, the same program Norvell once coached for four years before transferring to Florida State.

Initially ranked No. 10 in the preseason, the Seminoles have faced defeats against Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Memphis.

For all practical purposes, this season is over for Florida State. Common excuses like a lack of readiness, underestimating opponents, or needing time to develop are no longer valid.

The reality is that they’re just not a good team.

Throughout the ACC, there’s plenty of joy at Florida State’s struggles. The university is currently engaged in a legal battle to exit its broadcast rights contract with the ACC, which extends until 2036. If they happen to win, it could signal the decline of the conference’s influence in college sports. Perhaps moving to a less demanding league could be in their future?

But aside from the jokes, there’s a pressing question: What went wrong at Florida State?

There are primarily two theories, which probably interrelate to some extent.

The first is quite straightforward. Last year, Florida State heavily relied on the transfer portal to enhance its roster with standout players like receiver Keon Coleman and defensive lineman Jared Verse. However, the 17 new transfers this year, including quarterback DJ Uaigalelei, have failed to fill the void left by last season’s stars. They are struggling to establish a running game, their passing game falters, and the defense isn’t meeting expectations. Overall, things aren’t going smoothly!

This year-to-year inconsistency might become a common trend, especially as many programs adopt a transfer-heavy strategy. Sometimes you can strike gold, while other times, you might miscalculate and miss the mark.

However, Florida State’s difficulties this season seem so pronounced that there must be a deeper underlying issue. Thus, we shift to the second theory.

Is it possible that Florida State, as a whole, hasn’t been able to move on from last season’s events? Did the coaches, administration, and returning players fail to mentally regroup and approach 2024 with the same enthusiasm and energy they carried into 2023?

Did the College Football Playoff committee inadvertently shatter the Seminoles’ spirit?

The answer to this question is crucial. Already facing significant financial scrutiny due to its desire to leave the ACC, Florida State can’t easily opt for a coaching change. They owe Norvell over $60 million after this season—making them tied together for the foreseeable future.

Now that this year appears bleak, it’s time for a serious evaluation at FSU. Something has gone deeply awry over the past 9½ months, and it’s up to Norvell to remedy it.

Can he possibly achieve that?

This pressing question is why Florida State, now 0-3, tops the Misery Index, which gauges which fan bases are feeling the most distress weekly.

Four more in misery

Florida: The Seminoles’ in-state rivals are also struggling even more than Florida State, but the only thing keeping the Gators from topping this week’s list is that Expectations were already low in Gainesville, but it’s evident that Billy Napier is in a tough position. The Gators couldn’t even meet the minimal standards that anyone had for them. Their lackluster 33-20 defeat against Texas A&M showcased a one-sided game that was worse than the score reflects and pointed to a significant problem: the Gators simply don’t show enough effort. They fail to enter the field with the same intensity or assurance as their rivals. There’s a lack of presence and confidence. This matchup was one of the few opportunities on their schedule that should have been winnable. However, with a 3-0 turnover deficit and only 2-of-9 conversions on third down, it’s nearly impossible to win against any opponent.

South Carolina: Where do we even begin to list the regrets from the Gamecocks’ 36-33 defeat against LSU? Was it blowing a 17-0 lead? Or was it missing a 49-yard field goal that could have tied the game after a questionable play call that didn’t get them closer for kicker Alex Herrera? Then there was a pick-six that was nullified by a penalty on the interception return with just six minutes to go. Adding to the woes was starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers’ ankle injury. While you might argue that South Carolina didn’t necessarily play better on that day, they racked up 13 penalties for 123 yards, made three turnovers, and struggled to produce in the passing game (just 11 completions on 20 attempts for 155 yards). They had numerous opportunities to defeat LSU, which makes the loss particularly painful, especially with tough upcoming SEC matches against Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma.

Mississippi State: When athletic directors feel pressure during a coaching search, they often turn to familiar faces. However, sometimes this comfort can cloud judgement. The reality is that no other college program would have hired Jeff Lebby for the Mississippi State position. Zac Selmon made that choice, mainly due to a prior relationship from their time at Oklahoma, where Selmon was the athletic department’s second-in-command while Lebby served as offensive coordinator under Brent Venables. Strangely, Lebby wasn’t particularly well-liked during his two years in Norman. His previous experiences under Lane Kiffin and his father-in-law Art Briles pose issues of their own. Essentially, Lebby has not demonstrated offensive credentials independently. Now, he leads Mississippi State, which currently holds a 1-2 record after being trounced 41-17 at home by Toledo.

Air Force: Under Troy Calhoun, there have been few dreadful seasons over the past two decades, but this one might be among the most challenging for him. The Falcons find themselves at 1-2 after a brutal 31-3 loss to Baylor, where they mustered only 218 yards of offense while utilizing three different quarterbacks unsuccessfully. Just a week earlier, Air Force lost 17-7 to San Jose State, managing a mere 197 yards. This indicates both an immediate crisis and broader concerns for Air Force, which has a 61 percent win rate under Calhoun. The modern landscape of the transfer portal and NIL complicates recruiting for service academies. Now, Air Force leadership must consider its position following key Mountain West teams moving to the Pac-12. Should they remain in a revised yet weaker Mountain West, aim for Pac-12 membership, or join Army and Navy in the American Athletic Conference? These strategic decisions are critical as the program confronts a pivotal moment in its history.

Dismal but Not Dismal Enough

Georgia: So, what exactly was that? Fortunately for Bulldogs fans, it wasn’t a loss. However, a narrow 13-12 victory against Kentucky—just a week after Kentucky suffered a 25-point defeat to South Carolina—raises concerns about the potential of this No. 1-ranked team. Georgia has a history of shaky early-season performances; just two years ago, they barely escaped with a 26-22 win against Missouri while trailing late in the game and then went on to win the championship. This week, cornerback Daniel Harris became the sixth Georgia player in 2024 to be arrested for a driving offense. Since the start of 2023, the program has incurred over 25 citations for such offenses. This troubling trend reflects poorly on coach Kirby Smart. Is this off-field discipline issue affecting their on-field performance? We’ll have to wait and see.

UCLA: The state of the Bruins is such that they were seen as underdogs at home against Indiana on Saturday. For a program that has experienced underachievement, it’s hard to find a more glaring result than getting beat 42-13 by Indiana in the Rose Bowl. Are the Hoosiers genuinely that strong? That seems overly optimistic for UCLA fans. The Bruins are not equipped to compete in the Big Ten, particularly following the Chip Kelly era where recruiting fell short of the Pac-12 standards, let alone that needed to thrive in the Big Ten. In this game, UCLA managed only 238 yards of offense, making the future uncertain for first-year coach DeShaun Foster. He’s going to need all the luck he can get.

Vanderbilt: Remember the initial excitement after beating Virginia Tech in their season opener? That feeling evaporated following a 36-32 loss to Georgia State. On one hand, why is an SEC team competing against a Sun Belt team on the road? On the other hand, this shouldn’t have been a tough task; Georgia State barely edged out Chattanooga the week before and suffered a significant loss to Georgia Tech in their opener. Yet, Vanderbilt led briefly with under two minutes left but couldn’t maintain it as the Panthers executed a 75-yard drive in seven plays, scoring the winning touchdown with just 15 seconds to go. The same old story continues for the Commodores.