(This article was updated to include the latest information.)

Ukraine has successfully targeted a Russian arms depot located approximately 240 miles from Moscow, while Russian troops make their way towards a key rail and transport hub in Pokrovsk. Despite recent actions, Ukrainian forces maintain control over areas within Russia following a cross-border incursion, and the Biden administration is contemplating Kyiv’s requests for Western weapons to launch deeper strikes into Russia. These advancements occur more than a month after Ukraine’s significant attack into Russia’s Kursk Oblast and just a week following a Russian missile strike in Poltava that resulted in at least 58 casualties.

Officials from the U.S., Poland, and the U.K. have discussed providing support to Ukraine for long-range strikes into Russian territory, including options like U.K. Storm Shadow cruise missiles and U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles. In response, Moscow expelled six British diplomats and issued a warning that, as per Russian President Vladimir Putin, the West risks being drawn into a direct conflict with Russia should they authorize further long-range strikes.

Here’s a detailed look at the latest developments in the ongoing warfare between Russia and Ukraine:

Ukrainian drone strike obliterates Russian arms depot

Recent satellite images from Maxar Technologies reveal smoke rising from an ammunition facility nearly 240 miles to the west of Moscow, following powerful explosions in Toropets, Russia. According to Reuters, a Ukrainian drone strike has destroyed a facility that harbored missiles, guided bombs, and artillery shells, generating an explosion comparable to an earthquake that was detectable on seismic monitors and even observed by NASA satellites, which recorded intense heat over a 14 square kilometer (5 square mile) area. This incident marks the latest in a series of Ukrainian drone offensives targeting various Russian installations, including airfields and energy facilities.

Riley Bailey, an analyst focused on Russia, remarked to YSL News that Ukraine’s capacity to manufacture drones domestically has significantly contributed to the success of these missions against Russia. “Ukraine has developed an extensive inventory of domestically produced long-range drones. This last strike was reportedly the most impactful and primarily aimed at energy infrastructure,” he noted.

“We have observed attacks on ammunition storage sites as well as on aspects of the Russian defense industrial sector aimed at undermining Russia’s ability to ramp up military production. Additionally, strikes on Russian air bases have curtailed their operational security and hindered their capacity to consistently launch glide bomb attacks on Ukraine,” Bailey added.

According to Bailey, targeting infrastructure is also likely intended to diminish Russia’s oil refining capabilities, which not only fuels the Russian military but also serves as a key source of funding for the Kremlin over time. However, energy infrastructure isn’t the sole focus of Ukrainian drone operations.

Deadly Russian assault on Poltava

On September 3, a Russian ballistic missile struck a military academy in Poltava, Ukraine, claiming 58 lives and injuring 320 individuals, according to the Associated Press. Ukrainian officials informed the Associated Press that the missile also impacted a nearby hospital, marking it as one of the deadliest incidents since the onset of the war. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated via Telegram that the attack was aimed at the 179th joint training center of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which specializes in communications and electronic warfare. This missile strike followed shortly after Kyiv’s most significant drone offensive to date.

Since the war’s beginning, Russia has targeted civilian locations as well. Incidents of note include the April 2022 missile strike on the Kramatorsk railway station, which killed 63, and a January 2023 strike on a Dnipro apartment complex that left 46 dead. An attack on a cafe in Hroza in October 2023 resulted in 59 fatalities. The assault on the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theater in Mariupol is seen as the most catastrophic attack on civilians during the conflict. An investigation by the Associated Press revealed that nearly 600 individuals taking refuge there perished, while initial Ukrainian estimates put the death toll at around 300.

John Herbst, a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and currently a senior director at the Atlantic Council, described the Poltava assault to YSL News as the most substantial airstrike since the extensive Russian aerial campaign began in Fall 2022. He characterized it as a frustrated reaction from Moscow to the recent incursions into Kursk. “I refer to it as a tantrum strike, as it holds minimal military significance. While it inflicts considerable suffering, it offers limited strategic advantage,” Herbst commented.

Bailey, the war institute’s Russia analyst, indicated to YSL News that the Russian military may perceive these attacks as part of a broader operational strategy. “When Russian forces initiated their large-scale missile and drone strike campaign in October 2022, their explicit objective was to break Ukrainian morale and intent to continue defending. They targeted the Ukrainian energy infrastructure and aimed to exploit winter conditions to pressure the Ukrainian populace into surrendering. This attempt failed,” he noted.

“Viewing some of these strikes through this lens suggests that attacks on civilian targets may be deliberate, serving as efforts to demoralize Ukraine through consistent assaults on civilian establishments,” Bailey explained.

Seth Jones, who directs the international Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, affirmed to YSL News that the Poltava strike aligns with Russian military strategies.

In past conflicts like those in Ukraine, Syria, and Chechnya, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has documented numerous attacks on hospitals in Syria that were providing care to Free Syrian Army members and other opposition forces. Attacks on civilian infrastructure, including electricity grids, are partly aimed at influencing and demoralizing the population.

According to Jones, who has visited Ukraine several times during the war, the impact of such attacks on civilians is palpable. “When a city gets attacked, there’s an overwhelming feeling of fear. While it doesn’t seem to be breaking the spirit of Ukrainians, instilling fear is certainly one of their goals,” he remarked.

Air defense is essential for Ukraine

The recent assault on Poltava elicited a firm response from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who stated, “We need air defense systems and missiles in Ukraine, not stored away somewhere. We require long-range strikes that can shield us from Russian attacks immediately. Delays equal loss of life.”

Jones explained to YSL News that while cities like central Kyiv are well protected by Patriot missile batteries, Ukraine lacks sufficient resources to secure all urban areas.

Former Ambassador Herbst mentioned that Ukraine was promised five Patriot systems at a NATO summit but had only received one, with a second on the way. “If they had those five batteries, fewer Ukrainian civilians and possibly soldiers would have died,” Herbst stated.

According to Jones, air defense is the primary concern for Ukrainian leaders. “They’re lacking adequate supplies and have to make tough decisions about what to intercept or risk being overwhelmed.”

“Most of the attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Poltava, now involve a mix of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones, and decoys,” Jones observed.

As Bailey noted, Russian forces are exploiting Ukraine’s limitations, deploying a large number of cruise missiles and drones to overwhelm its air defense systems and allow ballistic missiles to penetrate through. “The Russians are okay with the high number of drone interceptions,” Bailey added. “They often use these drones to identify where air defenses are located, then follow up with cruise and ballistic missile strikes to evade detection.”

Bailey likens air defense to a layered umbrella system: “You want advanced systems like the Patriot, effective against ballistic missiles, positioned strategically, while utilizing lower-tier defenses to counter cruise missiles, and even more basic systems for Shahed drones.” Both he and Jones emphasized the necessity of adequate air support in a comprehensive air defense plan, which becomes challenging when facing shortages of defensive batteries and interceptors.

Latest developments following Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk

Last month, Ukraine initiated several offensive actions deep within Russian territory. In what marked one of the largest strikes against Russia since the onset of the conflict, Ukraine deployed drones to various locations, including Moscow. Additionally, Kyiv executed a notable raid over the border that destroyed a convoy, captured enemy personnel, and repurposed their equipment. As of Wednesday, Ukraine maintained control over parts of Russian territory in Kursk. Throughout the war, Ukraine has conducted numerous counteroffensives against Russia, especially in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions in 2022, and liberated several towns in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia in 2023.

Herbst claims that Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure have become increasingly effective. “Reports indicate that over 14% of Russia’s oil refining capabilities have been destroyed, which has significant industrial and military ramifications,” he explained. Herbst added that while Russia initiated extensive damage in Ukraine, the current situation has shifted.

The incursion into Kursk has drawn the attention of Russian military leaders, as highlighted by satellite images from Maxar Technologies showing newly constructed defensive trenches in Russian farmland 20 miles north of the Ukrainian border.

“We are currently at a pivotal moment,” Bailey remarked. “With the incursion into Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces are beginning to regain the upper hand in that segment of the frontline and are exerting pressure on Russian forces, which they haven’t faced throughout 2024.”

Bailey noted that the Russian military command seems to be prioritizing their offensive in Donetsk Oblast, particularly efforts to capture Pokrovsk. Observations suggest that some limited forces have been redeployed for this task, but there’s no indication that the incursion into Kursk has significantly disrupted those plans.

A Sept. 14 report from the Institute for the Study of War noted claims by Ukrainian officials that the Kursk incursion has led to Russia increasing troop concentrations in the area, although the exact sources of these units remain uncertain. The report indicates that any future Russian counteroffensive would require even greater troop levels and further redeployments from Ukraine.

While Bailey shared that the war institute cannot provide specific troop numbers, they have observed relocations from regions such as Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv, suggesting Russia is selectively transferring portions of units rather than moving entire brigades to Kursk. “In each active combat area, we’ve noticed troop movements,” he added.

“They are trying to draw forces from elsewhere before resorting to their reserves in Donetsk Oblast, where they are currently focusing their main offensive efforts,” Bailey pointed out.

Bailey believes that neither Ukraine’s incursion nor Russia’s attritional strategy represents a lethal gamble, and he does not think either side is presently in a position to achieve decisive victory. Instead, both nations will need to execute several campaigns toward strategically significant goals that fall short of overall triumph. However, Bailey emphasized the value of comparing these two differing strategies, as they reflect fundamentally contrasting approaches.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, Bailey noted, “Russian troops have adopted a strategy of positional warfare. The front lines are relatively static, as they have accepted a slow but steady attritional approach that yields gradual territorial gains while hindering Ukraine’s ability to launch significant counteroffensives to reclaim land.” He described the combat in Pokrovsk as a painstaking march from one village to another, involving direct assaults by infantry from one location to the next. According to Bailey, Russian forces have made only about 29 kilometers (18 miles) of progress west of Avdiivka. In contrast, the situation in Kursk illustrates a different tactical mindset from Ukraine, which still believes in regaining ground through swift mechanized maneuvers. Ukrainian forces managed to surprise their adversaries and executed maneuver warfare, advancing approximately 28 kilometers (17.4 miles) into Kursk Oblast within the first week of their incursion.

“The Ukrainian advances into Russian territory are quite embarrassing and worrying for Putin, potentially destabilizing his regime,” Herbst stated. “However, he’s taking a risk by believing they won’t be, and if he is correct, then it’s wise for him to keep his best troops stationed in Donbas.”

“Yet, should he be mistaken, it would be a significant error, and there are indications that he could be wrong. An authoritarian regime like Russia appears stable for a long time, only to suddenly crumble.”

Ukraine requires additional aid despite billions received.

The United States, along with various other nations, especially those in the European Union, have been delivering military, financial, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine throughout the conflict.

From January 2022 until June 2024, the U.S. has committed over $80 billion to Ukraine, the majority of which comprises military support, according to The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research organization.

On the other hand, Russia has been procuring ammunition from North Korea and short-range ballistic missiles from Iran. Additionally, Belarus has allied with Russia during the war, facilitating their military actions against Kyiv from its territory.

“What’s crucial now is the demand for more supplies,” Jones mentioned in reference to the ongoing need for munitions. “The resources are consumed daily due to the relentless Russian assaults. As this conflict drags on, both Ukraine and Russia are developing an unquenchable demand within this war of attrition. It’s a troubling reality.”

“Both sides are experiencing supply challenges,” former Ambassador Herbst informed YSL News. “Russia is receiving significant amounts of artillery and ammunition from North Korea, although the quality is questionable. Moreover, it’s evident that the West, including the United States, has recognized through this major conflict against Ukraine that we are ourselves lacking in sufficient ammunition.”

“There have been discussions within the administration and among Republicans in Congress about addressing this issue. However, the actions taken have been minimal—not only concerning Ukraine but also in terms of preparing ourselves for potential confrontations with Russia or China,” Herbst stated.

“This represents a serious issue that goes beyond Ukraine. We must increase our arms production to meet the straightforward defense needs of the United States, and our allies and partners must be taken into account as well.”

Sources: Reuters; Institute for the Study of War; The Associated Press, BBC; Planet Labs PBC; Maxar Technologies; YSL News reporting