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HomeSportWhy the Road to Victory May Be Sweeter: Debunking the Home-Field Advantage...

Why the Road to Victory May Be Sweeter: Debunking the Home-Field Advantage Myth in MLB Playoffs

 

Why Home-Field Advantage in MLB Playoffs Might Not Matter as Much


(This article has been updated to correct a factual mistake.)

 

PHOENIX− The Arizona Diamondbacks, the reigning National League champions, are faced with a crucial decision.

They’re set to play the San Diego Padres in a vital three-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix. A win in this series could mean starting the postseason at home against the Padres, but losing might send them to San Diego for the first games.

So, what’s the strategy?

Should they put all effort into utilizing top pitchers like Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly, or save their strength for the playoffs?

Should they be careful or aggressive with their bullpen tactics?

Just how critical is it to win this series for home-field advantage in the three-game wild-card round?

 

The New York Yankees are facing a similar situation. How aggressively will they compete this final week against Baltimore and Pittsburgh to ensure they have home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs, and possibly the World Series?

 

If you’re the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are dealing with a weakened starting lineup, how crucial is it to keep pushing to maintain a better record than the Philadelphia Phillies in the event they meet in the NL championship series?

 

If these teams delve into the analytics, they may realize that striving for home-field advantage may not be worth the effort—especially if it’s just adding to their owners’ profits.

“If you want to hear that home-field advantage is overrated, just ask Max Scherzer of the Texas Rangers, a three-time Cy Young Award winner. I’m telling you,” he shared with YSL News Sports.

 

“In fact, it’s almost the opposite.”

Believe him.

 

Scherzer was part of the 2019 Washington Nationals team that lost every home game during the World Series but secured the championship by winning four games in Houston against the Astros.

 

He was also with the Rangers last year, where they lost all three of their home games in the AL Championship Series but triumphed in all four games in Houston to reach the World Series, making history with an 11-0 record on the road.

“Baseball is a team sport, yet it has a very personal aspect,” Scherzer explains. “You don’t rely on communication like in other sports where crowd noise plays a part. The field is also consistent. Because of this, baseball doesn’t change much whether you’re playing at home or away.

“From my viewpoint, home-field advantage hasn’t affected outcomes at all.”

Take a moment to check the statistics yourself.

Last postseason, home teams recorded a 15-26 record (.366), marking the lowest win percentage in 53 years, dating back to 1970 when there were only four teams participating (4-7, .364).

 

In the past five full seasons, excluding the 2020 playoffs played at neutral locations, teams have won more playoff series on the road (27) than at home (22).

Even in the most pressure-filled situations and highest stakes, home teams have only won 6 out of 16 winner-take-all games since 2018.

“I can’t explain it,” reflects Rangers manager Bruce Bochy, who has four World Series titles but never clinched at home. “Last year we didn’t just lose at home; we were badly beaten by the Astros. Yet, we excelled when we played in Houston. I looked back to find some reasoning, but I came up empty.

“Last year didn’t offer any advantage to any team.”

Times have shifted now, diminishing the significance of home-field advantage in the playoffs. It’s not like the 1987 and 1991 World Series when the Minnesota Twins won all their home games at the Metrodome but lost every away game. This led opposing managers, like Whitey Herzog of the St. Louis Cardinals, to suspect the Twins were cheating by altering their air conditioning settings.

 

The game isn’t like the past in Detroit, where the grass was so thick the ball often slowed down. Nor the days where the visitors’ clubhouse in Arlington, Texas, was uncomfortably cold or sweltering outside. Or the chilly nights at the former Candlestick Park in San Francisco, where the Giants supplied space heaters for their dugout while the visiting teams had to manage on their own.

Traveling is more pleasant today, almost like a spa experience.

“Being on the road has its benefits; it’s just you and the team,” Bochy notes. “Distractions are minimal. Everyone is together in one hotel. You bond as a unit, and that can definitely help.

“At home, you drift apart, and you might not see each other until game time.”

The Diamondbacks, who actually have a better record on the road (44-35) than at home (42-33) this season, maintain that gaining home-field advantage matters to them. They also boast a solid postseason record, having started every series on the road last year and finishing with a commendable 7-3 in cities like Milwaukee, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Texas.

 

Nonetheless, they still hold on to their belief.

“Home-field advantage is desirable,” says Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker. “It’s not about intimidating the visiting team; it’s about feeling comfortable. When we stepped into Philadelphia last year, we didn’t feel apprehensive.

 

Feeling no nerves or intimidation, the support of 48,000 fans cheering for us at home gives us an extra boost.

 

“Ultimately, it’s about being on the field, and it doesn’t matter where that is,” shared Scherzer.

“History shows this time and time again.”

Over and over.

“While playing at home is enjoyable,” Scherzer continues, “my personal experience shows that the road can also be an amazing place.”

Next Level Technology

Are you tired of seeing players pull out cheat sheets from their pockets? Frustrated by pitchers reviewing notecards under their caps before each delivery? Do you find yourself yelling at the screen during delays when the PitchCom device malfunctions?

Three former college coaches have found a solution. They created the “GoRout” system, which allows coaches to instantly communicate with their players, sharing everything from pitches to defensive setups and hit-and-run strategies.

 

This innovative technology, featuring player devices similar to smartwatches that display information, is already utilized by over 2,000 teams in football, baseball, and softball across colleges and high schools.

“We closely monitor what’s happening in Major League Baseball,” stated GoRout founder Mike Rolih, “and we believe we can present a distinct and varied perspective on coach/player communication, enhancing it visually instead of relying only on audio in a pitcher’s cap or a catcher’s ear.”

“Our technology isn’t limited due to its smartwatch-like design.”

Rolih, a former college football coach at Eastern Illinois, has brought in other experienced coaches, such as Drew Robinson, who held coaching positions at Rutgers, Syracuse, and Western Michigan, and Adam Bourassa, once a scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres. Together, they believe they can take coach/player technology light-years ahead of what PitchCom offers.

 

“When a catcher signals for a fastball away, it’s not just a simple request,” Rolih emphasized. “There’s an entire layer of context involved, including adjustments for infielders and outfielders, repositioning, and more. Our system enables coaches to send out not only the proposed pitch but also essential scouting information for that pitch, along with live spray charts and heat maps.”

 

Even if it may take a long time for MLB to allow such real-time devices in dugouts, particularly given the fallout from the Houston Astros scandal, the concept is clear.

“We view communication in a different light than many others,” Robinson stated. “As a Yankees fan who watches every game, I constantly see players retrieving cards from their hats or pockets for positioning shifts. This system gives coaches and players a way to exchange information digitally, eliminating the need for paper cards and outdated communication methods.”

Could this system increase the chances of sign stealing and cheating in baseball?

“It should actually reduce that risk,” Bourassa noted. “Instead of signals coming from dugouts or third-base coaches, communication is just a button press away for both baserunners and hitters, making it harder to intercept signals.”

While there’s potential for teams seeking innovative (and illegal) methods to exploit cellular networks, GoRout’s executives believe their technology would function similarly to the NFL, which established its own private cellular network in every stadium.

 

The company has mainly collaborated with Division I baseball and softball teams, as well as high school and club teams, but they aspire to reach out to MLB officials eventually. For now, they’re focused on gathering feedback, refining, and updating the system to ensure it’s flawless.

Perhaps one day soon, you might be able to watch a full baseball game without the dependence on cheat sheets or pitchers frantically grasping at malfunctioning earpieces.

Sounds wild, right?

Around the Bases

≻ MLB and the Oakland A’s are enhancing security measures for their final match at Oakland Coliseum this Thursday. Players and staff have been instructed not to linger on the field post-game to avoid potential fan unrest.

Manager Mark Kotsay intended to thank the audience after the game but was advised to withdraw to the clubhouse instead, according to one of his colleagues.

 

≻ If the San Francisco Giants decide to part ways with Farhan Zaidi, their president of baseball operations, at the end of the season, they are likely to consider former Miami Marlins GM Kim Ng and Minnesota Twins GM Thad Levine as possible replacements. Since winning the World Series in 2014, the Giants have only made the playoffs in two of the subsequent years.

≻ Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, who received considerable praise for opting not to pitch around Shohei Ohtani during his remarkable 50 homer-50 steal day last week, plans to notify the Marlins of his departure following the season, likely becoming a coveted free-agent manager in baseball.

≻ Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman, quashed rumors about using Shohei Ohtani as a relief pitcher in the playoffs.

“That’s not something on our radar at the moment,” Friedman explained to the Orange County Register. “He’s still recovering; he’s only a year out from Tommy John surgery. In my view, he’s not on the table as an option.”

 

≻ During a private meeting between Giants minority owner Buster Posey and third baseman Matt Chapman just before Chapman’s signing of a six-year, $151 million deal, the discussion was not about contracts but rather to address Chapman’s concerns regarding the team’s future.

Posey assured Chapman that the Giants do plan to spend significantly to quickly reverse the team’s fortunes.

The only unresolved contractual issues before Posey’s involvement were agreeing on a complete no-trade clause and negotiating a $1 million signing bonus, as Chapman initially sought a $2 million bonus due to a similar amount in buyout from his previous three-year, $80 million contract.

≻ Billy Eppler, former GM of the New York Mets, who was suspended for manipulating player injuries to create roster space, is set to be reinstated following the conclusion of the World Series.

 

Eppler was at the helm of the Angels when they brought in Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani, known for his strong connections in Japan, could be a savvy acquisition for a team looking to sign Roki Sasaki, the most promising pitcher from Japan, who is attracting a lot of attention.

“He is like a healthy Jacob deGrom,” remarked one executive, “but even better. He might possess the best pitching abilities I’ve ever witnessed.”

It’s uncertain if Sasaki will decide to leave Japan this winter or wait for another year.

≻ The debate over the NL Most Valuable Player award concluded quite swiftly. Shohei Ohtani appears poised to secure his third unanimous MVP award.

≻ While Mets’ Pete Alonso is set to become the highest-paid first baseman in this free agency period, executives believe that Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker will attract significantly more interest at perhaps half the cost. The Milwaukee Brewers are among several teams interested if first baseman Rhys Hoskins chooses to opt-out of his contract.

 

≻ The Chicago White Sox have quietly brought in respected scout David Keller from the Mets to oversee their international scouting department. He will serve as a key advisor to GM Chris Getz.

≻ The Boston Red Sox were ready to offer free agent starter Jordan Montgomery a four-year deal last winter, but negotiations fell through as Montgomery held out for the Texas Rangers, where he wished to return. Ultimately, he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he is expected to stay instead of opting out of a $22.5 million contract set for 2025.

≻ Minnesota Twins outfielder Manny Margot has quietly set an MLB record, going 0-for-30 as a pinch-hitter this season.

≻ The Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen, led by standout closer Emanuel Clase, has been exceptional. They’ve only lost two games while leading after the sixth inning, making them a formidable contender in the American League playoffs.

 

≻ Manager Dave Roberts announced that the Dodgers will not use starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto on less than five days’ rest during the postseason. This requirement means they will need four starters, even in a best-of-five series.

≻ The Baltimore Orioles faced repercussions for giving aging closer Craig Kimbrel a one-year, $13 million contract, which they ended up regretting as they released him before the postseason. Kimbrel struggled since the All-Star break, concluding with an 11.50 ERA and allowing 23 hits, 17 walks, and five home runs over his final 18 innings.

While Kimbrel had a remarkable career, he may not meet the Hall of Fame criteria, especially considering his postseason struggles.

≻ Chris Sale is having an extraordinary season for Atlanta as he heads toward winning the unanimous NL Cy Young award. He leads MLB in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last 18 starts since June 7.

 

This streak is the longest for any full-time starter since earned runs became an official statistic in 1913.

≻ This year might mark the second occasion in the past 25 years that only two AL teams finish with 90 or more wins. Since 1998, the AL has consistently had three or more teams win at least 90 games, except for in 2015 when only the Kansas City Royals (95 wins) and Toronto Blue Jays (93 wins) achieved this feat.

≻ In an astonishing statistic, Red Sox outfielder Tyler O’Neill leads the team with 31 home runs, yet has only 61 RBI. O’Neill will join Felix Mantilla, who in 1964 had 30 homers and 64 RBI as the only Red Sox players to achieve 30 or more home runs while driving in fewer than 80 runs.

Notably, O’Neill has hit 20 solo home runs this season.

≻ It’s surprising that the AL Central will be the only division in baseball with three postseason teams this year, marking the first time since the division’s inception in 1994 that it has sent three teams to the playoffs.

 

However, this division has produced only two World Series champions: the Chicago White Sox in 2005 and the Royals in 2015.

≻ Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers concluded his season in one of the toughest slumps of his career, hitting just .188 with a .564 OPS in his last 30 games, having not homered since August 25.

≻ Congratulations to the Detroit Tigers players for continuing to support each other despite the front office trading away four players, including Jack Flaherty, who has since emerged as the Dodgers’ ace.

Those trade deadline decisions could haunt the Tigers this winter.

Nevertheless, the Tigers indeed have a promising future ahead, largely thanks to former GM Al Avila and his team for drafting and acquiring much of their young talent.

 

≻ If the Seattle Mariners find themselves out of postseason contention this winter, they might reflect on two of the strangest baserunning mistakes that contributed to their downfall.

In a bizarre play, Mariners outfielder Victor Robles attempted to steal home on a 3-0 count with the bases loaded and was easily tagged out by the New York Yankees.

The very next game, outfielder Julio Rodriguez tried to outdo Robles by getting picked off third base with one out in the 10th inning. He was distracted when Randy Arozarena’s bat slipped from his hand towards him, causing him to forget that the play was still live, leading to an easy out.

“That’s something I’ve never seen,” remarked Yankees manager Aaron Boone, “and I doubt I’ll see it again.”

 

These two blunders will forever be etched in Mariners’ history, marking their failure to reach the postseason for the 22nd time in 23 years.

≻ Cubs manager Craig Counsell expressed that it’s no coincidence the Brewers once again outperformed the Cubs this season.

“The message is clear: there’s a significant gap,” Counsell stated to the press. “They have a substantial lead over us. They are a skilled team both on and off the field. No doubt we have a lot of ground to cover.”

“We need to improve,” he added. “We have a long way to go.”

The unsettling reality for the Cubs?

The Brewers, despite battling injuries this year, are expected to be even stronger in 2025.

≻ Manny Machado, the All-Star third baseman for the San Diego Padres, made his prediction for the World Series: Padres vs. Houston Astros.

 

“We’re going to see them again,” Machado stated following a recent series.

If the two teams do face off, it seems likely that future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander may not be present in the postseason lineup. Since returning from the injured list, he has posted an 8.89 ERA in six starts, acknowledging that he may have returned too soon from his neck injury.

≻ Rangers pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has the option to activate a $20 million player option in his contract after exceeding the 300-inning mark over the past two seasons, but given his performance this season, he’ll likely become a free agent.

≻ The Chicago White Sox managed to play just well enough on their road trip to ensure they will break the all-time record for losses, reaching 120 in front of their own fans this week. If the White Sox were a college football team, they would be the favorite for everyone’s homecoming game.

≻ The Padres

The team is significantly stronger and more rounded than it was last year, boasting numerous talented players.

 

Last year, they would often lose hope when behind in games. This year, however, they show resilience and determination to come back.

  • This season, they have an impressive 10-1 record in extra-inning matches, whereas last year they struggled with a 2-12 record.
  • They hold a record of 31-22 in games where they lost a lead, a stark improvement over last year’s 8-33.
  • In close games decided by just one run, their current record is 22-18, compared to a disappointing 9-23 from the prior year.

“This is a team full of players who are eager to compete and truly enjoy playing baseball,” says Padres manager Mike Shildt.

≻ The Philadelphia Phillies are facing an intriguing choice for the postseason: should they start Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2 to secure a home-field advantage, or in Game 3 on the road? Sanchez has impressive stats at home, with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.959 WHIP over 16 starts, totaling 95 strikeouts in 105⅓ innings. Conversely, he has struggled on the road, where he has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.661 WHIP in 14 starts, with 54 strikeouts over 71⅔ innings.

 

≻ Astros GM Dana Brown once faced criticism for trading three prospects for struggling Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, but this move has proven to be brilliant, as the Astros have won all nine of Kikuchi’s starts. He currently boasts a 3.00 ERA and a .189 opponent batting average, along with 68 strikeouts in 54 innings.

 

≻ Mets pitcher Sean Manaea is in line for a lucrative free-agent contract. In 17 out of his last 19 starts, he has allowed three runs or fewer and has pitched at least 6⅔ innings in 10 of his past 11 outings.

≻ The Padres are growing increasingly worried about closer Robert Suarez, who has allowed game-tying or go-ahead home runs in three of his last six outings and has given up at least one run in eight of his last 18 games, with a 5.40 ERA since August 8.

 

≻ It was great to see Atlanta’s pitching coach Rick Kranitz back after taking time off since early July to attend to a family health matter.

≻ Congratulations are in order for Dan Adair, who played alongside Art Howe at the University of Wyoming. Adair became a commercial airline pilot, while Howe enjoyed an 11-year playing career and managed for 14 years in the majors. His grandson, Billy Cook, hit his first major league home run on Wednesday for the Pittsburgh Pirates, followed by a second on Saturday.

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