(This story has been updated with new details.)

On Tuesday, Tropical Storm Helene developed over the Caribbean, causing residents in Florida to gear up for a potential hit from what is anticipated to be a significant and powerful hurricane.

The storm is projected to bring heavy rainfall and could lead to mudslides in western Cuba as it travels between the island and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula late Tuesday, paving its way toward Florida’s Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As Helene moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters, it’s anticipated to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane with winds reaching 115 mph by Thursday’s landfall. Experts have warned that the storm could generate dangerous storm surges, intense winds, and around 10 inches of rain in various parts of Florida, most of which is currently under a state of emergency.

Due to the storm’s size and predicted fast movement across the coast, the hurricane center cautioned that powerful winds and heavy rain would impact areas hundreds of miles inland throughout the Southeast after landfall, affecting places such as Georgia, the southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley.

“Everyone in the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area needs to prepare for hurricane impacts,” stated AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, highlighting that this could become the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season.

Latest Developments:

∎ As of Tuesday, hurricane watches were in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula and parts of western and central Cuba, including Pinar del Rio Province, according to the National Hurricane Center. Additional advisories were expected later in the day.

∎ Counties and municipalities are preparing shelters for residents who may need to evacuate, especially those in low-lying and coastal areas. The state has temporarily closed at least 59 parks across Florida, as noted on the state parks website.

∎ If Helene reaches land as a hurricane, it would mark the fourth hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. mainland this year, following Beryl, Debby, and Francine.

What makes Helene so large?

The wind radius of Helene is expected to be among the largest ever observed for storms at similar latitudes, ranking in the 90th percentile, the hurricane center reported on Tuesday.

Currently, tropical storm force winds extend up to 140 miles from its center, but Jamie Rhome, the center’s deputy director, indicates Helene is likely to grow even larger as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Its expansive size stems from the influence of the Central American gyre, explained Sam Lillo, a meteorologist and software engineer at DTN Weather.

Gyres, which typically refer to rotating water currents, can also occur in atmospheric winds. They represent a broad air circulation that spins counterclockwise.

Lillo noted that these gyres generally appear in the western Caribbean at this time of year. When a tighter circulation forms, it can lead to the development of large storms like Helene. Historical data shows that such gyres frequently result in intense rainfall that can cause severe flooding.

The interaction of storms: Helene might experience Fujiwhara effect

The Fujiwhara effect, which involves two storms rotating around each other, is one of the most fascinating concepts in meteorology. It’s primarily observed in tropical cyclones like hurricanes or typhoons, but it can apply to other weather phenomena as well.

Forecasters believe that soon-to-be Hurricane Helene may engage in a Fujiwhara “interaction” with another storm over the central United States, referred to by the weather service as a trough of low pressure.

As Helene moves through Florida into the Southeast, models suggest it will interact with the low-pressure trough over the Ozarks, according to the National Weather Service in Shreveport, Louisiana, in an online forecast discussion released on Monday.

“In essence, this implies that the remnants of the landfalling hurricane will approach the larger Ozarks trough, striving to circulate around it before being absorbed and forming a more significant closed trough,” the weather service explained.

“This phenomenon is exceptionally rare at this latitude!,” stated KATV meteorologist James Bryant on X.

Florida’s storm-affected areas brace for Helene

Residents in Florida’s Big Bend area are feeling exhausted from storm impacts.

Last month, Hurricane Debby brought severe flooding and tornadoes to the region. Almost a year prior, Hurricane Idalia devastated the area, destroying homes and flooding entire neighborhoods. Together, these storms, which both made landfall in Taylor County, resulted in about $500 million in agricultural damages, based on a University of Florida assessment.

Now, with Helene approaching the Gulf Coast, locals are gearing up for more potentially devastating effects.

“We’re still recovering,” said Michelle Curtis to the Tallahassee Democrat, part of the YSL News Network. The lifelong resident noted that blue tarps from the damage caused by Idalia and Debby are still a common sight in her neighborhood.

Jeff Pittman, a fourth-generation peanut and cotton farmer whose crops were devastated by Hurricane Michael six years ago, prepared generators to ensure his neighbors’ cattle would have water amid the impending storm.

“We’re taking every precaution and thinking of all we can do,” Pittman shared. “It looks like we could be facing a very serious situation come Thursday.”

– Ana Goñi-Lessan, James Call, and Jeff Burlew from the Tallahassee Democrat

Current Location of the Storm

As of early Tuesday, Helene was positioned in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to lead to hazardous weather including flooding and storm surges across the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Cuba through midweek.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s update at 11 a.m., the storm was located 180 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and 170 miles south-southeast of Cuba’s western tip. It had maximum sustained winds reaching 45 mph and was moving at 12 mph.

Helene is anticipated to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday night and make its way into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.

Forecasts suggest the storm could bring 4 to 8 inches of rain to western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated amounts possibly reaching 12 inches, raising concerns about “significant flooding.” The eastern Yucatan Peninsula could see 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals exceeding 6 inches. There are also warnings of strong winds and storm surges.

According to the weather service, “Hurricane conditions may occur in Cuba and Mexico’s watch areas by early Wednesday,” with similar conditions possible in U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early Thursday.

Impacts Expected Across the Gulf Coast and Southeast

As Florida prepares for Helene, meteorologists warn that the storm’s effects could extend hundreds of miles inland from its landfall point.

Predictions indicate that the storm could drop approximately 10 inches of rain in parts of northern Florida and across sections of the Tennessee Valley. Much of the Southeast is expected to receive 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, affecting areas from southwest Florida to parts of Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter from AccuWeather stated, “This will likely be a large hurricane with substantial storm surge risks that will impact areas far inland from where it strikes.” He noted that major flooding could extend to areas like Atlanta and possibly the southern Appalachians.

Life-threatening storm surges along Florida’s Gulf Coast are another critical concern. Predictions suggest water levels could rise 10 to 15 feet above ground in the Big Bend region, an area still recovering from recent storms Debby and Idalia.

Near Tampa Bay, storm surge could reach heights of 5 to 8 feet, the hurricane center reported. They highlighted an increased risk of severe storm surge and hurricane-strength winds along the Florida Panhandle and western Gulf Coast in their latest update.

Helene Could Mark Florida’s 9th Major Hurricane Since 2000

The storm is expected to develop into a major hurricane, categorized as a Category 3, as it approaches the Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday, according to the hurricane center. Researcher Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University noted that since 2000, Florida has experienced eight major hurricanes making landfall: Charley, Jeanne in 2004; Dennis, Wilma in 2005; Irma in 2017; Michael in 2018; Ian in 2022; and Idalia in 2023.

Storm Impacts Oil Production in the Gulf

As predictions of a disruptive hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico arise, oil producers have begun evacuating staff from production platforms.

Companies such as BP, Chevron, and Shell have begun the process of evacuating offshore personnel and have suspended some production operations.

This follows recent disruptions caused by Hurricane Francine, which struck the Gulf of Mexico two weeks ago, impacting Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane with winds up to 100 mph.

– Reuters

Florida Governor Calls for Preparedness Ahead of Helene

On Tuesday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis expanded the emergency declaration to cover 61 counties, which is nearly all of Florida’s 67 counties.

The day before, DeSantis signed a state of emergency for 41 counties, enabling the state to provide necessary resources to local areas in anticipation of the storm. He mentioned that the state has also requested emergency assistance from FEMA, which he believes will be swiftly approved.

Governor DeSantis indicated that the state is mobilizing high water vehicles, generators, and assembling 18,000 utility workers in response to Helene. Additionally, 3,000 National Guard members are on standby, with preparations already underway for flood protection measures.

Governor DeSantis emphasized the significance of staying informed about emergency alerts, particularly for individuals living close to utility substations across the Gulf Coast.

He urged residents to pay attention to evacuation zone information and stock up on non-perishable food items and water while preparing for possible power outages.

“Make sure to prepare; you still have time,” DeSantis reassured. “Although this storm brings a lot of uncertainty, one thing we know for sure is that we will experience some effects.”

Warm ‘Loop Current’ may enhance Hurricane Helene

Hurricanes derive their strength from warm waters, and certain regions in the Gulf of Mexico are currently at record-high temperatures.

According to University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy, “The heat content in the Gulf is remarkably elevated, especially in the Loop Current area, which future-Helene will cross over.” He added that the average temperature for this time of year is unprecedented.

The Loop Current is a warm water current that flows through the Gulf of Mexico, past the Florida Keys, and up along the Atlantic Coast.

When discussing the brewing storm, McNoldy remarked on Tuesday, “Although it hasn’t even become a tropical depression yet, don’t let that mislead you!”

Hurricane watches activated for various parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast

In a recent update, the National Hurricane Center announced a hurricane watch covering the vast majority of Florida’s Gulf Coast, from Englewood south of Sarasota up to Indian Pass in the Big Bend area. This includes cities like St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay.

A hurricane watch indicates that hurricane conditions might occur within the defined area. Typically, such a watch is issued 48 hours before the expected onset of tropical-storm-force winds, which complicate outdoor preparations.

Several regions in the state are also under a tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch has been issued for most of the Gulf Coast, signaling the risk of potentially life-threatening flooding as water moves inland from the coast in the next 48 hours, according to meteorological reports.

Fears of rapid intensification escalate

While the tropical system currently situated in the western Caribbean might not seem very menacing at the moment, it’s essential to remain cautious. Historically, the Gulf of Mexico has been known to transform weak storm systems into powerful hurricanes almost overnight under suitable conditions.

Forecasts indicate that this storm could quickly gain strength in the Gulf, a phenomenon known as rapid intensification. As stated by Ken Graham, the National Weather Service director, many of the most catastrophic hurricanes have undergone rapid intensification.