This story has been updated with new information.

Betting markets are leaning towards seven states, which collectively have fewer than 100 electoral votes, as highly influential in the upcoming presidential election.

According to bets placed on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform, Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds a slight advantage of just 14 electoral college votes over former President Donald Trump as of Wednesday. For some time on Thursday, the win probabilities for both candidates in Pennsylvania and Nevada—combined holding 25 electoral votes—were evenly matched at 50% each.

As of Friday at 11 a.m. EDT, Polymarket indicated that Harris’ chances of winning overall are only 2 percentage points ahead of Trump’s. It’s important to note that legal presidential election betting is not available in the United States.

State-by-state election odds for Harris and Trump

According to offshore betting markets, Harris and Trump are considered to have at least an 86% likelihood of winning a total of 43 states and Washington, D.C., in the election scheduled for November 5.

Real Clear Politics, a nonpartisan election resource, identifies seven states as toss-ups where the probability of winning for either Harris or Trump is less than 70%. Their polling also indicates that Minnesota and one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes could be added to the toss-up category, with predictions showing Harris taking that vote.

Recent polling averages show an improved position for Harris

Similar to the betting odds, polling averages compiled by Real Clear Politics have slightly shifted in favor of Harris—rising about one percentage point following the debate on September 10. Trump’s polling numbers have remained relatively stable.

The importance of Pennsylvania, which holds 19 electoral votes, is evident from the focus both campaigns are placing there, as betting money is also split evenly in this state.

Projected distribution of the 538 Electoral College votes by bettors

According to Polymarket betting data, over 80% of the Electoral College votes are securely allocated to either candidate. This helps identify the states that are likely to remain closely contested leading up to November.

As of Friday at 11 a.m. EDT, bettors give Harris a 51% chance of winning Pennsylvania and a 52% chance for Nevada. The odds for both candidates were tied at 50% just the day prior.

Shifts in Harris’ and Trump’s winning odds for the 2024 presidential election

The probability of Harris winning has fluctuated up to 8 percentage points since the recent debate, as per Polymarket. Meanwhile, the odds of them engaging in another debate have decreased by 5 percentage points in the past week, now standing at 25%.

This explains why Harris has moved to the front-runner position since the debate, with new betting patterns boosting her chances, particularly in Pennsylvania and Nevada. However, her odds in both locations have begun to drop again.

Schedule for the vice presidential debate

With only about six weeks remaining until Election Day, the upcoming debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Republican Senator JD Vance from Ohio next Tuesday could influence the betting landscape as well.

Betting odds failed to forecast Trump’s 2016 win

Despite the positive trends for Harris, Trump is still just one percentage point behind, a much narrower margin than he faced in his previous election campaigns, according to Betfair.

On Election Day in 2016, Betfair’s odds gave Hillary Clinton an 81% chance to win. Historically, the betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, as highlighted by the nonprofit news organization, the Conversation. The other instance when bettors miscalculated was in 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman overcame odds of 8-to-1 against him to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.