WASHINGTON – Allan Lichtman, a historian known for correctly forecasting nine out of the last ten presidential elections, stated in a recent interview that any potential last-minute twist in the 2024 presidential race, often referred to as an “October surprise,” is merely a “myth.”

Last month, Lichtman predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris would emerge victorious. His prediction is grounded in a system of thirteen “keys,” or true-false questions that assess the performance of the party currently in the White House, as reported by the New York Times.

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These comments come as Harris and former President Donald Trump find themselves in a tight race, with some national and state polls showing them closely matched. Analysts suggest that the competition might end up being quite narrow.

Lichtman stated on NewsNation Monday, “I do not change my predictions based on polls. If I did, I would have been completely wrong about 2016. I would have also been wrong about 2020, as the polls were unfavorable to Obama around this same time in October.”

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He further explained that his methodology relies on the underlying factors driving elections.

“It’s governance, not campaigning, that matters, and the keys evaluate the strength and performance of the party in power. Therefore, the concept of an October surprise is just a significant myth,” he remarked. “I’ve always finalized my predictions before then and have never altered them.”

The thirteen keys he evaluates include whether:

◾ The party in power gained House seats during midterm elections.

◾ The incumbent president is seeking reelection.

◾ The ruling party is facing no primary challenges.

◾ There are third-party candidates.

◾ The economy is performing well in the short term.

◾ The long-term economic growth has paralleled the previous two terms.

◾ The ruling party has implemented significant national policy changes.

◾ There has been ongoing social unrest during the term.

◾ The administration is free from scandal.

◾ The challenger lacks charisma.

◾ The incumbent is charismatic.

◾ The ruling party has experienced a substantial foreign policy setback.

◾ The ruling party has had success in foreign policy.

Lichtman mentioned last month that eight of the keys favor Harris, while three favor Trump.