As the heavyweight match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul approaches in a month, a notable contrast has emerged between the opinions of the betting public and the established oddsmakers.

At 58 years old, Tyson is considered the underdog, mainly due to his age compared to 27-year-old Paul. Surprisingly, more bets have been placed on Tyson than on Paul at major sportsbooks like DraftKings, Caesars, and the Westgate SuperBook.

Recent figures show that 67% of the total betting amount at DraftKings is on Tyson, while Westgate SuperBook reports 66% of its handle backing him, along with a significant majority at Caesars.

However, the sportsbooks did not disclose the exact amount of money bet.

“Popular fighters tend to attract a lot of bets,” noted Brandon Yaeger, the chief oddsmaker at Caesars, in a statement to YSL News Sports. “From Paul’s perspective, he’s the guy that everyone wants to see lose, so many are betting on Tyson in hopes of a payoff.”

Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sportsbook operations at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, pointed out that Paul’s odds are significantly favored. For instance, a winning bet of $300 on Paul returns a $100 profit.

“Casual bettors tend to avoid betting on favorites at such high odds,” Kornegay explained in a text message.

Conversely, Tyson’s odds are around +275, which means a winning $100 bet could win $275.

“There are many factors against Tyson, yet recreational bettors may not necessarily worry about that,” said Gianni Karalis, a seasoned sports bettor specialized in combat events. “A surge in betting action on the underdog is likely.”

Yaeger expressed confidence that even if Tyson gets more bets, the sportsbook would prefer if Paul wins to balance their books.

“Tyson knows how to promote a fight very well,” he commented. “He creates just enough hype to make people believe he’s still capable.”

Yet, it seems Yaeger harbors doubts about Tyson’s actual fighting ability.

Is there ‘sharp’ money coming in?

To manage risk, sportsbooks have set undisclosed limits on initial betting for the Tyson-Paul match, with Karalis indicating some limits could be as low as $250, preventing larger bets from sharp bettors.

“We generally increase betting limits two weeks before the fight,” Yaeger from Caesars shared. “Then, two to three days out, we’re usually more accommodating, allowing larger bets.”

With such adjustments, seasoned bettor Teddy Sevransky believes betting trends could shift as the fight nears.

“Odds are designed to deter casual gamblers, aiming to challenge sharp bettors instead,” he noted. “The public’s support for Tyson might not translate into larger wagers when the fight nears.”

Nonetheless, Sevransky raised skepticism regarding how much sharp money might be placed. He shared that he will not be betting on this matchup.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty,” he remarked. “It’s hard to judge if Jake Paul can win, and I’m doubtful about Tyson’s potential at 58. When evaluating events daily in this profession, there are times you just don’t feel an edge, and it’s better to pass.”

Analyzing the Betting Statistics

Although it sounds complex, the concept of “implied win probability” is useful for understanding the odds for the Tyson-Paul fight.

According to the odds posted by various respected sportsbooks, oddsmakers estimate that Paul has about a 75% chance of winning – translating to a 75% likelihood that bets placed on him will pay off.

This figure is derived from the moneyline odds that reflect each fighter’s winning chances. As of now, Paul’s odds fluctuate between -275 and -330, while Tyson’s range between +210 and +275.

In traditional betting terms, Tyson is regarded as roughly a 2-to-1 underdog while Paul is considered a 1-to-3 favorite.

Current Odds for Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul

• FanDuel: Paul -330, Tyson +250
• BetMGM: Paul -275, Tyson +275
• DraftKings: Paul -275, Tyson +210
• Caesars: Paul -300, Tyson +215