Offshore gamblers are increasingly confident that former President Donald Trump will prevail in the 2024 election, particularly in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania.

As of Wednesday at 6 p.m. ET, Trump’s odds of winning were just under 59% on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency betting platform, marking a significant shift since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. The Betfair Exchange, the largest betting site in the U.K., indicated on its gauge that Trump is likely to win as of Wednesday morning. Note that betting on presidential elections is illegal in the U.S.

National polling data compiled by Real Clear Politics presents a different story: Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained a nearly 2-point lead since their debate on September 10, yet she has struggled to attract support in battleground state polling throughout October.

Trump’s winning odds are rising as he gains in battleground polls

Do bettors have insights that pollsters are missing? Polymarket warned on Tuesday in its weekly “Oracle” newsletter that discrepancies in betting markets do not equate to clear advantages in polling:

“While Trump’s lead is the largest since summer, it’s crucial not to inflate its importance. A 55-45 prediction market edge doesn’t compare to a five-point polling lead,” the newsletter cautioned. “Minor shifts in polls can lead to significant changes in betting odds.”

Trump’s prospects in Pennsylvania enhance, yet polling remains tight

It’s no surprise that Pennsylvania, which holds the highest number of electoral votes at 19 among the closely contested states, has been a focal point for both campaigns. When gamblers noticed polls in Pennsylvania leaning toward Trump, this significantly boosted his winning odds in the state.

“Pennsylvania is the critical state,” remarked Bernard Yaros, an economist with Oxford Economics. The independent advisory firm observes narrow victory paths for both candidates, with each route depending on Pennsylvania’s outcome.

“It’s a remarkably close contest,” Yaros stated. “We’re discussing margins of just a few tens of thousands of votes.”

How Trump could clinch Pennsylvania

In one scenario, Oxford Economics assessed each of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, estimating how many votes each location could add to either Trump or Harris’ margins. With around 13 million residents, they predict that just 19,101 additional votes could turn Pennsylvania and the election in Trump’s favor.

Which states remain toss-ups according to polling?

According to Real Clear Politics, a total of 104 electoral votes in nine states are still classified as toss-ups. Presently, if the election were held based on current polling in those states, Trump and Ohio Senator JD Vance would easily secure over the needed 270 electoral college votes.

Unsurprisingly, these toss-up states also attract wagers from offshore bettors on Polymarket, who are banking on Trump’s success. Nonetheless, the potential for Trump to win any of the closest races remains under 60%.

Bettors increase Trump’s chances beyond previous election predictions

While betting patterns favor Trump and Harris have diverged notably in recent days, the current odds are still less favorable than Trump’s standing at the start of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, Trump’s chances exceeded 70% on both Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

As of Wednesday at 6 p.m. ET, Trump sported a 17-point advantage over Harris on Polymarket, and the same gap appeared on the Betfair Exchange. This difference remains the narrowest of Trump’s three campaigns, with Betfair’s historical data showing that on October 16, 2020, bettors estimated Biden’s chances at 65%.

Since 1866, the betting favorite has only lost twice. Historical failure to forecast Trump’s 2016 win and Truman’s 1948 upset over Dewey at 8-to-1 odds are examples.