Strategist James Carville, who worked on Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, famously stated, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

This statement perfectly encapsulates the current state of the upcoming presidential election, which is just two weeks away.

Voters have been voicing their anxieties about economic issues and inflation for months, and these concerns remain paramount as they prepare to cast their votes—many have already done so in several states.

Vice President Kamala Harris is in the tricky position of promising to be “different” from President Joe Biden, but she struggles to articulate specific ways in which she would differentiate herself. Moreover, she has been actively involved in the Biden administration over the past four years.

Given the economic hardships many have faced recently, it’s understandable that people are looking for a change.

Recent polls indicate that former President Donald Trump is gaining traction, particularly in pivotal states. While Harris’s popularity is declining as the election nears, Trump appears to be receiving increased support compared to his standings in the previous two presidential races.

Trump’s polling position is notably stronger now compared to 2016 or 2020.

This shift largely reflects how voters perceive their financial situations.

Most Americans Feel They Are in a Worse Financial Situation Than Four Years Ago

According to a new Gallup poll, dissatisfaction regarding the economy is widespread across the country.

The survey revealed that 52% of Americans believe they are worse off now compared to four years ago—when Trump was still in office. Only 39% feel they are better off. Gallup notes that the last time comparable economic frustration appeared during an election year was back in 1992, when Carville emphasized the economy in Clinton’s winning campaign.

People’s opinions on their financial situation are unsurprisingly linked to their views on the state of the U.S. economy as a whole. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index recorded a score of -26, indicating public concern and fears of worsening economic conditions—one of the lowest election-year ratings seen.

This poses significant challenges for Harris, who prefers to shift the focus of voters towards topics like “democracy” and reproductive rights.

However, this situation could benefit Trump, who can remind voters of the robust economy during his presidency prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

As Gallup summarizes: “Historical patterns indicate that perceptions of personal wellbeing and economic confidence play a crucial role in determining election outcomes.”

Guilting Voters Is Not a Successful Tactic

Harris is grappling with challenges in winning over key Democratic constituencies, including Black male voters, which raises concerns for her campaign.

Former President Barack Obama has stepped back into campaigning to directly appeal to Black voters. He plans to visit Detroit soon, where polls indicate a very close race in Michigan.

Obama has suggested that gender bias could be a factor in the lack of enthusiasm for Harris among voters.

Still, Black male voters may share the same economic worries affecting the broader population.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll revealed that 23% of Black male voters prioritize the economy as the most significant issue influencing their voting decisions.

Last week, Harris rapidly released an “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” seen as a transparent attempt to secure their votes. However, her campaign had to clarify quickly that the programs she proposed would be accessible to everyone without regard to race.

Implementing racial restrictions in any public program could lead to significant constitutional issues and may not stand up in court.

Voters are unlikely to be swayed by these targeted tactics, as they continue to face genuine economic hardships.

Moreover, Harris has not instilled confidence that she could manage the situation any better than Biden – which plays right into Trump’s strategy.