As we approach Halloween, it’s worthwhile to think about what might be troubling conference commissioners.

The inaugural year of the 12-team College Football Playoff brings a lot of uncertainties, as it’s a first for college football’s premier division. The rise of large conferences, each containing 16 to 18 teams without divisions, adds more unpredictable variables. It may not take long for conference leaders to reconsider how they select their champions, especially since playoff seeding hinges heavily on conference titles.

What’s the takeaway? With the season nearing its end, we can identify the contenders from the four major conferences for their respective championships, which could lead to desirable first-round byes. However, various scenarios could complicate who the two finalists are. In a particularly wild situation, there’s even a chance that an undefeated team might miss its conference title game.

In this Week 9 overreaction analysis, we’ll examine each conference’s situation and assess how much they should worry.

Big Ten

With only a month left in the 2024 season, three teams remain undefeated in the Big Ten, and they aren’t slated to compete against each other. Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all have no games against one another, so if they all finish unblemished, tiebreakers will determine the championship game participants. This scenario could mean that one of these undefeated teams is left out of the playoffs, upsetting its fan base.

Is it plausible? For this to happen, both the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers must defeat Ohio State — with Penn State facing them at home next week and Indiana hosting them on November 23. Ohio State must win both games to secure a rematch with Oregon. If they lose one, they’ll likely fall into the at-large playoff category.

ACC

A similar situation is emerging in the ACC, with two returning teams and one newcomer. Clemson and Miami appear on a collision course. However, SMU’s impressive win at Duke has kept its conference record perfect, and they won’t face either Clemson or Miami.

Yet, there’s a fourth team that could clarify things: Pittsburgh, which is also undefeated, and will play both SMU and Clemson. If the Panthers win both, they could end up facing off against Miami. If Pitt wins one and loses one, the victor among the Tigers or Mustangs could take the lead. Yet, if both SMU and Clemson defeat Pitt without additional losses, we might face another three-team scenario. While unlikely, it’s certainly a possibility.

SEC

Did we ever expect things to be straightforward in this league? As we head into November, Texas A&M stands as the only undefeated team in the conference, while four others have each suffered one loss. The finalists will likely be among these five, with the Aggies in a strong position. However, two of the once-defeated teams will meet, so either Georgia or Tennessee will take a second defeat. LSU still holds the chance for a 7-1 record if they beat Alabama at home soon, but they would lose the tiebreaker against A&M and won’t face the other contenders.

This brings us to Texas, the only other team with a chance to challenge A&M in their highly anticipated matchup. If Texas wins at A&M, there’s a possibility they might meet the Aggies again just a week later in Atlanta.

However, a complicated three-way situation could arise. While less likely than the conflicts in the Big Ten or ACC, it would require A&M to lose twice. LSU, Tennessee, and Texas have no games against each other, which could lead to the kind of chaos that might prompt discussions about alternative methods for determining conference champions.

Big 12

The Big 12 is experiencing the least turbulence among the power conferences, especially as several teams initially predicted to contend have dropped out. The most straightforward outcome would see the last two unblemished teams, Brigham Young and Iowa State, reach the title game without any issues. Kansas State is set to take on the Cyclones in the final week, possibly leading to a rematch with the Cougars. Colorado is also in the picture with only one loss, but sadly they don’t face BYU or Iowa State, meaning they need other teams to help their championship aspirations.

The Group of Five

In terms of playoff implications, the Group of Five conferences operate almost as a single large conference, featuring a collective…

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There is a guaranteed position to be filled, but it’s quite likely that this spot will be occupied by the champion of either the American Athletic Conference (AAC) or the Mountain West Conference. Currently, Boise State appears to be in the lead, and if the Broncos manage to finish 12-1, having only lost narrowly to Oregon, they might even make a case for a higher seed than 12^th.

If Army remains undefeated, it could change the conversation, especially if they manage to do what their rival Navy could not: beat Notre Dame in upcoming weeks. For those who love chaos, picture this scenario: the Black Knights triumph over every opponent in the regular season, including Notre Dame, secure the AAC championship, and earn a playoff spot, only to lose to Navy after the field for the playoffs has already been established. Sure, this might be a stretch, but speculation is part of the fun!