WASHINGTON – Normally, Montana doesn’t play a decisive role in elections. However, this year is different as it could significantly impact the U.S. Senate race.

Next week, Montana voters will choose between a Republican former Navy SEAL who is new to politics, and a Democrat and third-generation farmer already holding the position, who is eager to prove the polls wrong.

The decision made by Montanans could influence which political party will dominate the Senate for at least the next two years, as Democrats fight to maintain their slim majority.

Currently, Democrats hold a slight edge in the Senate with a 51-49 split. Therefore, Republicans need to win just two seats to take control of the chamber. One of those seats is nearly secured: the retiring Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin from West Virginia, which presents a clear opportunity for Republicans.

Democratic Sen. Jon Tester from Montana stands as the next significant target for Republicans.

Tester, who has been in the Senate for 18 years, has become an anomaly in a state where Republicans dominate both legislative chambers and hold all other statewide positions. The last Democrat to win Montana’s presidential vote was in 1992, despite a Democrat serving as governor from 2005 to 2020.

Montana’s political landscape has shifted from being narrowly Republican two decades ago to solidly red. For instance, while Sen. John McCain won the state by just 3 points over Barack Obama in 2008, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by 16 points in 2020.

Despite these changes, Tester has managed to win, defeating GOP challengers by 3.5 points in 2018 and 3.7 points in 2012.

However, Republican sources and political analysts are predicting a different outcome this time. Tester’s earlier wins depended on a dwindling number of voters who split their ticket—supporting candidates from different parties.

He’s now facing Tim Sheehy, a military veteran and prosperous businessman. Sheehy was personally encouraged to run by GOP Sen. Steve Daines, who also handles the Republican campaign efforts in the Senate.

With a strong background and backing from notable GOP figures, Republicans see Sheehy as a promising candidate that could pose a significant challenge to the seasoned incumbent.

Polling data so far suggests that they might be correct, as Sheehy has been consistently ahead of Tester in several surveys. Nevertheless, Democrats are optimistic that Tester’s strong connections to Montana and effective fundraising will help him retain his seat and subsequently aid the party in maintaining Senate control.

“He has a strong operation – Democratic politics in Montana are centered around him,” stated Chuck Denowh, a political consultant in Montana and former executive director of the Montana GOP.

Yet, as Montana voters have leaned more conservative, Denowh explained, “he is increasingly associated with the national Democratic agenda. Voters express concerns about the economy, immigration, and various social issues, and these national matters generally don’t favor Tester in Montana.”

A farmer versus a Navy SEAL

Tester, aged 68, is a multi-generational farmer who works the land that his grandfather settled in the early 1900s.

His political career started in the late 1990s when he served in the Montana state Senate, before moving up to the U.S. Senate in 2006. He is on the influential Appropriations Committee, which manages federal funding, and also chairs the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee.

Tester positions himself as an independent voice, sometimes opposing elements of his party on various issues, including immigration, and emphasizes his collaboration with former President Trump to strengthen border security. He strategically distances himself from national Democratic policies and has refrained from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for re-election, though he has aligned with an initiative to safeguard abortion rights.

Conversely, Sheehy is employing a campaign strategy aligned with Trump’s outsider approach for 2024, presenting himself as a challenger to Democratic leadership in Washington. His platform prioritizes issues such as completing the southern border wall and addressing other pressing concerns.

Issues such as migration, reducing inflation by revisiting energy regulations, and safeguarding gun rights are at the forefront.

Tim Sheehy, aged 38, was raised in Minnesota before he enlisted in the Navy, became a SEAL, and earned a Purple Heart. In 2014, he moved to Montana with his wife, where he started Bridger Aerospace, a company specializing in aerial firefighting. He also possesses a ranch located in central Montana.

As per his latest financial disclosure, Sheehy’s net worth is estimated at $290 million, making him one of the wealthiest potential members of Congress if elected. In contrast, Jon Tester has a net worth of up to $6.5 million.

Neither candidate provided a response to interview requests regarding this article.

Although Sheehy appears to hold an advantage this time, Democratic consultant Matt McKenna noted that Tester has consistently triumphed in close races where he initially seemed at risk, leveraging his long-standing and strong ties to the state.

“Anyone who has ever relied on conventional wisdom in Washington has lost out betting against Tester,” McKenna remarked.

“Both candidates are working to underscore the other’s vulnerabilities as Election Day on November 5 approaches.

During the debate in late September, Tester challenged Sheehy regarding inappropriate stereotypes about Native Americans—a significant voting demographic in Montana. Sheehy acknowledged that his remarks were “insensitive” but attributed them to his military background, where he claims “off-color jokes” are prevalent.

Sheehy has also been scrutinized for a gunshot wound to his right arm, which he initially attributed to friendly fire in Afghanistan but later described as a self-inflicted injury during an encounter with a park ranger in Glacier National Park. He has defended his decision not to report the injury at the time, stating it was to protect his fellow soldiers.

In response, Sheehy accused Tester of being significantly funded by lobbyists, claiming he consistently endorses President Joe Biden’s policies. According to FiveThirtyEight, Tester voted in alignment with Biden 91% of the time in 2021 and 2022, and 94.6% in 2023, as per ABC News.

Both candidates are addressing a pressing issue for many Montanans: the influx of people relocating to Montana post-pandemic and the surge in housing costs.

Redfin reported that the median home sale prices in Montana increased by 77.8% between May 2019 and May 2024.

Tester has aimed to portray Sheehy as one of the “wealthy outsiders” responsible for the rising living costs, advocating for governmental tax credits to stimulate construction. Meanwhile, Sheehy argues that easing regulations is critical for expediting building processes and reducing housing prices.

This housing dilemma has also become a focal point in the presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed various measures to alleviate housing issues, including providing $25,000 for first-time homebuyers’ down payments. Former President Donald Trump has called for reducing construction regulations and offering tax incentives for homebuyers.

Financially Competitive

Tester aims to center the race around Montana, even with the increasing national focus on the state in recent months.

However, the contest between Sheehy and Tester carries significant implications for policy-making, depending on which party secures control of the Senate. Republicans anticipate that winning the Senate will clear the path for Trump’s agenda should he be re-elected, while the same goes for Democrats and Biden.

The party that gains the Senate majority will influence the verification of a president’s Cabinet members and judicial nominees, from federal district courts all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, where four justices will soon be in their 70s.

This intense contest has made the Montana race one of the priciest in the nation. Tester has spent over $83 million in this election cycle, while Sheehy’s expenditures have reached around $22 million, according to the latest finance filings.

Moreover, outside spending has greatly enhanced both campaigns. Organizations have invested $76 million to support Tester and oppose Sheehy, while $79 million has been allocated to support Sheehy against Tester.