LONDON — In mid-October, Greg Swenson, an American residing in London for the past decade, was busy with what he termed “the banking circuit”: visiting Milan, Paris, and Abu Dhabi.

“It’s been hectic. Six cities in two weeks,” Swenson shared during a phone call from an airport while en route to Dublin after returning from the Middle East. As the chair of the U.K. chapter of Republicans Overseas, a group recognized by the Republican National Committee but not officially associated with it, Swenson was on the move again the following week.

“We’ve never put much effort into voter engagement,” he remarked about his organization.

“Honestly, I don’t feel motivated to register people who are likely to vote Democrat. I’d rather focus on areas that will likely support Republicans.”

Americans Abroad: Who Are They and Where Do They Live?

This election cycle may be different, as there’s a notable push to rally votes from Americans living overseas.

Historically, overseas voters haven’t received significant attention from presidential campaigns. However, with the upcoming presidential election being exceptionally close, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are exploring every avenue to gather votes—including from those overseas.

The exact number of Americans living abroad is uncertain. Estimates from the U.S. Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP), the Association of Americans Resident Overseas, and other experts range between 4.4 million and 9 million. According to a FVAP report to Congress in 2020, only 7.8% of these individuals participated in the last presidential election, while the overall voter turnout was 67%.

This relatively low turnout may explain why overseas voters have felt largely ignored in past elections. Factors include their geographical distance, lack of comprehensive data about their locations and political affiliations, and challenges in understanding the voting process. Republicans like Swenson believe seeking out overseas votes may not be worth the effort, as this demographic is often perceived as leaning Democrat. This shift occurred about ten years ago when civilian voters abroad began to outnumber military voters known for their Republican support, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.

This election cycle, there are signs that both campaigns are making a more concerted effort to engage with Americans who live far away from home, stretching from Australia to Guatemala.

For Swenson, alongside his travel throughout Europe and the Middle East to connect with potential Republican voters, his organization has ramped up its digital outreach by investing in Facebook ads for the first time and hosting more events in person compared to previous election years, including gatherings outside NFL games in London.

In June, Donald Trump’s son, Donald Jr., attended a high-profile Republican fundraiser in London hosted by an Australian actress and her affluent British husband, with ticket prices ranging from $10,000 to $100,000. Swenson noted that the event raised at least $2.5 million, representing a significant moment for Republicans Overseas, even though it may seem modest compared to similar fundraising efforts in the U.S.

“That changed our connection,” Swenson, 62, remarked about the London fundraiser. “Before that, we had no contact with the campaign. We were all doing this simply out of civic duty.”

When Karen M., 54, a likely Democratic voter from Florida who has lived in London for many years, saw a house in London’s South Kensington adorned with signs in support of Kamala Harris, she was quite taken aback.

Karen, who preferred to keep her last name private, wondered who those signs were for, noting that local residents, who cannot vote in November, don’t have any stake in the election.

Key States and Strategic Engagement

The Democratic National Committee estimates that 1.6 million overseas voters are eligible to vote in seven crucial battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

These states are likely to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the presidential race on November 5. Considering President Joe Biden won Nevada by a margin of under 11,000 votes and Georgia by fewer than 12,000 in 2020, Democrats appear to recognize a promising opportunity among overseas voters.

Sharon Manitta, a retired expert in historic textiles from Auburn, N.Y., now residing in Wiltshire, England, serves as the global press secretary for Democrats Abroad, which is the official overseas organization of the Democratic National Committee. She noted that the DNC allocated $300,000 for worldwide voter outreach and educational initiatives, marking what seems to be a record amount for an election cycle. In addition, a coalition of former ambassadors raised over $100,000, all of which has been directed toward phone banking and efforts to register voters.

“We are doing everything within reason to ensure that Americans are registered and heading to the polls,” Manitta explained. “At times, this involves what I have dubbed ‘guerilla PR.’ For instance, if I’m in a grocery store and hear someone with a North American accent, I might drop a business card from votefromabroad.org in their cart.”

In the UK, Democrats Abroad has also made appearances at farmers’ markets. They set up a temporary campaign office adorned with U.S. flags at the London School of Economics in central London, where volunteers make calls to as many Americans abroad as possible. In mid-October, former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her daughter Christine, a political strategist for the Democratic Party, even visited the office.

At 76 years old, Manitta mentioned that this year is her sixteenth presidential election cycle, and she can’t recall another time when a Democratic “celebrity” like Pelosi visited a Democrats Abroad office.

In June, Anna Wintour, the British-American editor of “Vogue” magazine, organized a competing fundraiser in London for Democrats, coinciding with a similar Republican Overseas event, although few specifics were disclosed.

“The interest has been increasing over the years,” Manitta noted, citing what she perceives as heightened attention towards overseas voters during presidential elections.

Essential Information for Overseas Voters:

• Living abroad and lacking a voting plan? Visit your state’s election website or contact your political party’s local office overseas to understand your options and get last-minute advice.
• Tip: Acquire a tracking code for your absentee ballot to make sure it arrives on time (every state’s deadlines differ, but many allow a grace period for military and overseas ballots even after Election Day).
• Concerned about your vote being counted? After it’s submitted, verify your vote’s status on your state or area’s election website to confirm your ballot was received.

Absentee Voting While Living Abroad

Americans have been casting absentee votes since the Civil War, enabling those serving in the military away from home to participate. After World War II, the process became more organized as many soldiers began residing for extended periods at overseas military bases. This historical context explains why the Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP), which supports overseas voters, is still part of the U.S. Department of Defense.

Today, individuals move abroad for various reasons, including family, job opportunities, and lifestyle choices. Despite this, there is still limited knowledge about the U.S. citizens living overseas who are eligible to vote, although surveys indicate that they are often college-educated, with just under half holding citizenship in both the U.S. and another country.

According to FVAP estimates, the largest groups of American voters abroad are found in Canada and Mexico, followed by citizens in Britain, France, and Israel.

However, for some Americans living overseas, time zones present challenges in engaging with the election process. This is the case for 26-year-old Regan Moran, who is nearing graduation with a nursing degree.

Originally from Franklin County, Ohio, Moran is currently living in Sydney, Australia, which is 16 hours ahead of her home time zone. She hasn’t been able to watch debates or speeches this election cycle, so she has relied on her social media feeds for snippets and updates to guide her decision-making.

“I feel like I’ve been receiving a lot of filtered information and haven’t had a chance to see things firsthand,” she mentioned. Having lived abroad since February 2023, this will be her first experience voting while overseas.

Surveys reveal that one significant reason overseas Americans tend to vote less than their U.S. counterparts is the complicated paperwork involved. Each state has its own regulations, but ballots typically must be sent back to the state of the voter’s last residence. Federal law mandates that local election officials must send absentee ballots 45 days before an election. However, these ballots can face delays due to administrative issues and poor mail service in some areas. Additionally, not all states permit overseas voters to submit their ballots via email.

Moran chose to use an email ballot that she could print, complete, and send to her elections office as it felt safe and reliable, describing the process as “easy.”

Targeted by the Legal Challenges Facing the Trump Campaign

This year, the Trump campaign is focusing on legal challenges related to votes cast from abroad, aiming to invalidate certain ballots. This includes attempts to disallow votes from some Americans born overseas to U.S. parents and the spouses of military voters. The campaign has made broad allegations of fraud and misconduct without offering concrete evidence or examples. Additionally, the Trump campaign has accused the ruling Labour Party in Britain of engaging in “overt election interference.”

Aine Dougherty, 27, a voter from Pennsylvania currently residing in Mulhouse, France, noted how the campaigns are emphasizing the significance of overseas voters this election cycle, as evidenced by the numerous ads aimed at those voters on her social media platforms in recent months.

“I’m pleased that I have ways to express my opinion from another country,” Dougherty expressed. A pastry student, she draws parallels between her French city’s working-class roots and her home state of Pennsylvania. Her hometown of Bala Cynwyd is in Montgomery County, a significant swing state area that both Trump and Harris have sought to appeal to in recent weeks.

Reproductive Rights as a Driving Force for Overseas Voters

For some Americans living abroad, the topic of reproductive rights is a key motivator for participating in this year’s elections. Moran, an Ohioan residing in Sydney and a healthcare worker with an autoimmune disorder, feels driven by the overturning of Roe v. Wade. She aspires to work in emergency medicine, all while considering the implications of practicing in states that do not safeguard women’s health rights.

“I wouldn’t find it easy,” she shared regarding a potential return to a location that lacks protections for women’s health. As an ER nurse, she recognizes the recurring challenges, stating, “I know I would place my license at risk. Emotionally, it would be a significant toll. My health could also be jeopardized.”

While Harris has committed to restoring the protections that Roe provided, J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice-presidential candidate, asserted during the early October debate that he and Trump advocate for family-friendly policies, including fertility treatments. He defended Trump’s stance that states should determine their own abortion regulations.

“The results of this election will greatly influence my thoughts on which states I might consider moving back to,” Moran said.

Dougherty, who voted from abroad in the 2020 election, mentioned feeling more engaged for the upcoming 2024 elections because she is committed to safeguarding women’s rights both in her home state and nationwide.

“The people I cherish remain in America, and perhaps I will return someday,” Dougherty remarked. “I believe it’s crucial for the country to progress in a direction I support, and I’m doing my part to facilitate that.”

Possibility of Ending Double Taxation

Americans living outside the U.S. are obliged to file tax returns with the IRS. This sometimes leads to the issue of double taxation, depending on whether a tax treaty exists and individuals’ earnings.

In his outreach to Americans abroad, Trump has promised to eliminate “double taxation.” It’s important to note that there is a $120,000 income threshold; everyone must file U.S. taxes, but only those earning above that amount might pay additional taxes on their surplus income.

This proposal has struck a chord with U.S. citizens living overseas, including political activist Joe Beydoun, who leads Republicans Overseas in the UAE.

“We’re Americans, yet we end up paying higher taxes than anyone else,” Beydoun, based in Dubai, explained. “We can’t even remain competitive in our respective fields.”

According to the Tax Foundation, a Europe-based tax policy research organization, Denmark held the highest personal income tax rate in 2024 at 55.9%, while the average U.S. federal and state rate was 42.1%. Notably, the UAE does not impose a personal income tax.

Beydoun, a former deputy mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, a significant hub for the Arab-American population, believes that Trump will restore “peace” amidst the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s offensive operations against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

He shared that through discussions with friends and family, both overseas and at home, it’s evident that many from Michigan with Middle Eastern connections share this perspective, which could be influential on Election Day: “The Arab-American vote must be regarded as a substantial voting bloc.”

Beydoun remarked that while previous U.S. elections in his area were largely characterized by strong Democratic outreach, he is noticing heightened enthusiasm and involvement from local Republicans seeking guidance on how to vote while overseas.

The Role of Overseas Voters Each Election Cycle

Despite the close nature of this year’s elections, Martha McDevitt-Pugh, the American chair of Democrats Abroad based in the Netherlands, insisted that overseas voters have always played a critical role in U.S. elections, and this year is no exception.

“We’ve been active throughout the year, ensuring voters are aware of their voting options, how to cast their votes, and that their participation matters,” she stated.

“This is in line with our approach in every election cycle.”

John Fortier, a political scientist from the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative Washington think tank, voiced doubts about the potential impact that overseas voters will have this year.

“It’s challenging to measure because the overseas voting population is diverse,” he noted, emphasizing that it includes transient students, digital nomads, and Americans on temporary business assignments, as well as many military personnel.

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Personnel stationed abroad have the flexibility to change their voting locations based on their military assignments, family addresses, or their last residence in the U.S.

“Calculating the exact number is challenging since we aren’t sure how many are eligible to vote,” explained one expert.

John Chudy, a retiree from the international development sector now living in Guatemala, currently chairs the local chapter of Democrats Abroad. He estimates that around 40,000 Americans reside in the country. Chudy notes that many U.S. political discussions often involve Guatemala in relation to immigration issues. He mentions approximately 600 registered Democrats in the area who he anticipates will participate in the voting process, though he remains uncertain about the registered Republicans.

“I do know some Republicans here,” Chudy, 77, shared. “However, Republicans generally don’t retire in Guatemala, despite the pleasant climate and the affordable lifestyle on Social Security, so they usually remain isolated.”

On Election Day, Beydoun plans to meet with fellow Americans from both parties in Dubai around 6 a.m. to follow the election results. They’ll enjoy breakfast as the tallies come in, all while it’s still nighttime in the U.S. They will make predictions about the outcome: “I’m uncertain if we’ll end up surprised or not.”