Recent Presidential Polls Show Tight Race in Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina
Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are engaged in an incredibly close contest for crucial swing states. These states could play a pivotal role in determining the winner of the Electoral College, according to new polling data released by UMass Lowell / YouGov.In the closing days of the election, key states such as North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire are seeing a close contest between both candidates as they make their last appeals to voters before November 5. Polls indicate that not only these battleground states but also nationwide are predicting a tight competition for the presidency.
As this thrilling race nears its end in just five days, both Trump and Harris are scheduled to speak to their supporters on Thursday in Nevada, another vital state in this election.
Here’s a summary of the latest polling information:
Trump ahead of Harris in North Carolina
A recent poll by UMass Lowell/YouGov, released on Thursday, shows Trump ahead of Harris by two percentage points.
The survey, which included 650 likely voters, indicated that Trump has a 47% to 45% lead over Harris as the 2024 election approaches. This poll was conducted from October 16 to October 23 and has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
A troubling trend for the vice president emerged from the findings: 74% of respondents believe that the direction of the country is not right, and 57% expressed either some or strong disapproval of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Similar to other polls, nearly half (49%) of those surveyed feel that Trump has an advantage when asked who they think is leading.Ink is well-positioned to manage the economy, according to survey results. Additionally, a significant number of participants believe that Trump is better suited to tackle issues related to the Middle East conflict (48%) and immigration (52%).
In contrast, aligning with national trends, respondents favored Harris when it comes to abortion issues, with 50% supporting her stance.
Furthermore, those surveyed viewed Harris as more trustworthy (45%) and more likely to enforce the law effectively (46%). In comparison, 48% of respondents considered Trump to be more corrupt than Harris.
Harris Outpaces Trump in Michigan
Recent polling from UMass shows that Harris has a narrow lead over Trump by 4 points in Michigan.A recent poll involving 600 likely voters indicated that Harris is currently ahead of Trump, with a score of 49% to 45%. This survey was conducted from October 16 to October 24 and carries a margin of error of 4.49 percentage points.
Despite Harris leading, there is concern as 66% of participants believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction, which could be concerning for her campaign.
When it comes to economic issues, Trump received slightly more support than Harris, with respondents favoring him at a rate of 46% compared to Harris’s 45%.
Here are some additional insights from the survey:
- 56% expressed some level of disapproval towards Biden;
- 46% thought Trump would be better suited to address conflicts in the Middle East;
57% of those surveyed preferred Harris regarding her stance on abortion, while 49%% perceived her as more trustworthy. In contrast, 52%% viewed Trump as the more corrupt candidate among the two.
Harris Holds Slight Advantage in Pennsylvania
According to a UMass poll, Harris has a narrow one-point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, an important state for the election.
The poll was conducted from October 16 to 23 and included 800 likely voters. The results showed Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%. However, this lead falls within the margin of error, which is ±3.73 percentage points.
Voters expressed a preference for Trump when considering who would be more effective in managing certain issues.The economy (50% to 44%) and the management of the Israel-Hamas conflict (47% to 39%).
Harris Leading in New Hampshire
According to a recent UMass poll, Harris has a slight lead in New Hampshire, with a margin of seven percentage points.
The survey, which sampled 600 likely voters, indicated that Harris is ahead with 50% support compared to Trump’s 43%. This poll was conducted from October 16-23 and has a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.
In an interesting development compared to previous polls, most respondents (47%) expressed their belief that Harris is better at managing the economy. However, Trump was still viewed more favorably regarding his handling of the Middle East situation (44%) and immigration issues.
According to a recent poll, the following results were reported:
- 72% of participants feel that the country is moving in the wrong direction;
- 56% either somewhat or strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance;
- 57% think Harris would be more effective on abortion issues;
- 53% consider Harris to be more trustworthy while 54% view Trump as more corrupt.
Understanding Polling Insights
The margin of error indicates how reliable the survey findings are in reflecting the views of the whole population.
According to the Pew Research Center, when a candidate’s lead falls within the margin of error, it is classified as a “statistical tie.”
Additionally, Pew has noted that many pollsters have adjusted their approach since the presidential elections in 2016 and 2020, during which Trump’s actual performance was largely underestimated.