While ink has been spilled to support the presidential election, Kamala Harris ‘ leadership could determine how former president Donald Trump or vice president Kamala Harris did rule after taking office on January 20, 2025.

Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a so-called “red storm” failed to materialize during the midterm elections in 2022, which left Republicans with an eight-seat lot in the lower chamber.

In states that are deemed” safe” in the presidential race, there are a number of crucial votes to consider. Many of the chairs in the group are deemed” toss-ups,” according to Cook Political Report, which means that individuals have roughly equal odds of winning.

When a poll box was set on fire last week, causing thousands of votes to be lost in an arson case, the significance of these chairs was immediately apparent. Both individuals in the election spoke out against the crime.

These are eight parliamentary elections in” safe” claims that may jump the House of Representatives.

legislative districts that may jump the House

Poll turns and via 538 regular, unless noted

California 13th area

Harris poll result: 23.8 %
• Cook Political Report standing: Toss-up
• Incumbent: John Duarte − R ( freshman )
• Challenger: Adam Gray − D
• Most recent poll results: Gray 44.4 % − 42.4 % Duarte ( USC/CSU Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona, margin of error ±5.6 %, released Sept. 24 )

California 22nd city

Harris poll result: 23.8 %
• Cook Political Report standing: Toss-up
• Incumbent: David Valadao − R
• Challenger: Rudy Salas − D
• Most recent poll results: Valadao 45 % − 45 % Salas ( Emerson/Nexstar, margin of error ±5.2 %, released Sept. 30 )

California 27th city

Harris poll result: 23.8 %
• Cook Political Report standing: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Mike Garcia − R
• Challenger: George Whitesides − D
• Most recent poll results: Whitesides 44.4 % − 43.1 % Garcia ( USC/CSU Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona, margin of error ±4.3 %, released Sept. 24 )

California 45th city

Harris poll result: 23.8 %
• Cook Political Report standing: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Michelle Steel − R
• Challenger: Derek Tran − D
• Most recent poll results: Tran 44.8 % − 43.3 % Steel ( USC/CSU Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona, margin of error ±4.4 %, released Sept. 24 )

Colorado 8th city

Harris polling lead: 17 % (via ActiVote poll released Oct. 20 )
• Cook Political standing: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Yadira Caraveo − D
• Challenger: Gabe Evans − R
• Most recent poll results: Caraveo 44 % − 44 % Evans ( Emerson/The Hill/Nexstar, margin of error ± 4.2 % released Oct. 2 )

Nebraska 2nd city

Trump voting result: 18 %
• Cook Political standing: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Don Bacon − R
• Challenger: Tony Vargas − D
• Most recent poll results: Vargas 49 % − 46 % Bacon ( NYT/Sienna, margin of error margin of error ± 4.1 %, released Sept. 28 )

New York 22nd city

Harris poll result: 15 %
• Cook Political standing: Slim Democrat
• Incumbent: Brandon Williams − R ( freshman )
• Challenger: John Mannion − D
• Most new poll outcomes: No independent surveys available

Washington 3rd area

Harris poll result: 20 %
• Cook Political standing: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez − D ( freshman )
• Challenger: Joe Kent − R
• Most new poll outcomes: No independent surveys available

Things to keep in mind about voting

The margin of error indicates how confidently the survey’s findings are that the whole community will be represented.

When a president’s result is “inside” the margin of error, it is considered a” analytical tie”, according to Pew Research Center.

Pew has even found the majority of polls have changed their strategies since the 2016 and 2020 presidential primaries, when Trump’s achievement was considerably underestimated.