## Trump’s Election Odds Tumble: Harris Gaining Ground
Two days before Election Day, the 2024 presidential race is neck-and-neck, with polls, experts, and pundits predicting a tight contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Recently, offshore betting markets painted a different picture, initially showing Trump as the frontrunner. However, in a dramatic shift, Trump’s odds have dropped significantly, signaling growing confidence in Harris’s chances.
As of Sunday morning, Trump’s probability of winning plummeted to 55% on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. While slightly higher on major U.K. betting platforms, Sporting Index and Betfair Exchange, he still saw a notable decrease.
Kalshi, the largest regulated U.S. exchange, witnessed the most drastic shift, with Trump’s odds dropping from over 65% earlier in the week to 49% on Saturday.
These market fluctuations coincide with recent polling trends. While Trump enjoyed a surge in polling numbers in battleground states earlier this month, the gap between him and Harris remains tight.
Experts have questioned whether these dramatic shifts in betting odds could be influenced by manipulation. Polymarket officials have assured users they are investigating potential irregularities.
Interestingly, the betting markets initially placed Trump’s odds at a higher level than he achieved during any point leading up to his 2016 victory.
Historically, the betting favorite a month before the election has rarely lost, except for two notable instances: 1916 and 1948. This suggests that while betting odds can provide insight, predicting election outcomes remains complex.
Currently, eight battleground states, representing 103 electoral votes, remain toss-ups according to Real Clear Politics. While recent polls indicate razor-thin margins in five of those states, betting markets continue to favor Trump’s victory in all but two.
Ultimately, the 2024 election appears destined to be a nail-biter, with Harris gaining ground and challenging Trump’s dominance. Only time will tell who ultimately emerges victorious.
