We understand how you feel, college football enthusiasts. After a weekend filled with emotional ups and downs, it’s completely natural to react strongly. Here at Overreaction HQ, we strive to provide a broad perspective on the playoff picture and assess which teams have a legitimate chance of making it into the final top 12. However, if your team faced a painful defeat, it’s understandable to feel troubled right now—’Hopes soaring high, only to fall flat,’ as Howard Jones aptly described. (Check it out on Google, youngsters; it’s a classic.)

In this week’s rundown of the top five overreactions, we will evaluate the repercussions in several areas, including university campuses and various league offices.

Penn State

The sense of crisis among Nittany Lions supporters is largely twofold. Many have accepted that their hopes for a Big Ten title are likely dashed, as, barring some extraordinary events, the championship game will likely feature Oregon against the victor of the Ohio State-Indiana matchup. Nonetheless, Penn State remains in the at-large conversation, provided they can win their final games and finish with an 11-1 record.

The pressing concern now is whether the Lions can make a meaningful impact if they qualify. Historically, the team has followed a predictable pattern: winning the games they should, yet failing to reach the pinnacle. Would a victory in the round of 12 against a mid-level team from another major conference even be regarded as a success if it leads to a quarterfinal exit against one of the sport’s top-tier teams?

Internally, team members can’t dwell on such uncertainties, as there’s still work to be accomplished with a couple of competitive teams left on the schedule. While fans will continue to support the team, this week’s frustration may linger for a while.

Clemson

Panic levels around Death Valley rose as the game against Louisville slipped away from Clemson on Saturday night. The outcome signaled that the Tigers’ six-game winning streak was built on shaky grounds.

To reach the ACC title game, the Tigers will need some assistance, specifically a loss from either Miami or SMU. If that doesn’t happen, they may still contend for at-large consideration if they finish 10-2, which would require wins against Pittsburgh and South Carolina. However, losing either game—or even this week’s match against Virginia Tech—would lead to elimination from playoff contention, a tough pill for a fan base accustomed to vying for championships.

Texas A&M

The scenario for the two-loss Aggies differs somewhat, as their most viable path to the playoffs hinges on either winning the SEC title or at least reaching the championship game. A victory against Texas later this month could pave the way, especially since Georgia and Tennessee will face each other, and the Aggies hold a tiebreaker over LSU.

However, suffering a second conference loss, marking their third overall, would leave their playoff hopes in the hands of the selection committee. While their record could match up well against other teams with three losses, it’s advisable not to find themselves in that situation. They have a week off to regroup before facing New Mexico State, followed by a critical matchup against Auburn and a high-stakes home game against their biggest rival.

The Big 12

There was bound to be a sense of anxiety in the league office as two of the conference’s top contenders, Iowa State and Kansas State, suffered losses within moments of each other on Saturday evening. While it’s improbable that the Big 12 will be completely excluded from the playoff field, these results left room for concern that the eventual champion might not secure a first-round bye.

Remember, automatic berths are awarded to the five highest-ranked conference champions, with the top four ensured spots in the quarterfinals. Is it possible the Big 12 champion could end up outside the top four? It certainly isn’t impossible, especially with Boise State currently ranked at No. 14 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.

There’s still one undefeated team from the Big 12. If Brigham Young reaches 13-0 while claiming the league title, they would undoubtedly earn a top-four seed, especially given their early victory against a potential ACC champion in SMU. However, if the Cougars stumble in their final conference game or lose any remaining November games, the eventual league champion could have multiple losses. Iowa State and Kansas State are set to play each other at month’s end, while either Colorado or Texas Tech will also suffer a loss when they clash this week. We’ll gain further insight into how the committee evaluates Group of Five conferences, particularly regarding Boise State and Army compared to the Big 12 contenders, when the initial rankings are revealed on Tuesday night.

The American

Speaking of Army, the Black Knights contributed positively to their new conference by triumphing over rival Air Force, despite the absence of starting quarterback Bryson Daily. However, overall This past weekend was challenging for the American Athletic Conference, with Navy suffering a delayed defeat against Rice and Memphis losing to Texas-San Antonio. In contrast, Boise State, the leader of the Mountain West, showcased their strength with a commanding performance against San Diego State on Friday night.

If Boise State continues their winning streak, the American Athletic may struggle to secure a spot in the playoff lineup. There is a chance for Army to make an impact when they play Notre Dame in three weeks at Yankee Stadium. However, the Black Knights will almost certainly require a healthy Daily for that matchup, as well as for their upcoming game against North Texas, if they wish to keep their playoff hopes alive.