President-elect Donald Trump achieved a remarkable political comeback, significantly exceeding the expectations set by polls for the third consecutive election.

Leading up to Election Day, various polls indicated a very close race between him and Vice President Kamala Harris. Officials warned that the results might take several days to finalize, with Trump-aligned groups ready to file lawsuits to contest the outcome. However, the results were announced before many in the nation awoke on Wednesday, revealing a clear victory for Trump.

This election’s results shed light on a growing theory regarding polling inaccuracies, as shared by Courtney Kennedy, vice president of methods and innovation at Pew Research Center: Democrats tend to participate in polls more than Republicans.

“Rather than thinking we’re in the dark about what’s happening, it’s quite evident,” Kennedy stated in an interview with YSL News. “This election confirmed that Democrats are still more inclined to engage in surveys than Republicans…. The answer is yes, and in some areas, it seems to have worsened.”

Polls have been misleading in past elections

Before Trump, former President Barack Obama defied polling predictions to defeat Mitt Romney in 2012.

In 2016, FiveThirtyEight, a well-known polling organization, had Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by 45.7% compared to 41.8% on Election Day. In 2020, Joe Biden led Trump by 8.4 percentage points, a significant gap, although the race was still close.

Pew Research Center has also noted an increase in pollsters and a diversification of polling methods since the 2016 elections.

Kennedy mentioned that Pew’s diversified approach has shown promising results in its polling. A large annual survey conducted in the spring highlighted societal trends evident on election night, such as young men leaning toward Republican candidates and a growing proportion of Republicans nationwide.

Understanding what polls got right and wrong in this election

Kennedy noted that polling this election was better than in recent years, and acknowledging its limitations can help refine methods for future elections.

“Progress was made, but it wasn’t flawless,” she said, explaining that some pollsters might consider weighted adjustments to address the low participation of Republicans. “It’s not a cure-all that perfects the poll, but it helps lessen the significant non-response issue we face.”

She also indicated that while Trump’s performance against polling may seem large on a national level, results in individual races could be more accurate. She cited California, where votes are still being counted, and anticipates the final counts aligning more closely with the pre-election polling.

Polls serve not only to gauge voter support for candidates but also to identify key issues on voters’ minds this election. Generally, polls indicated that the economy was the primary concern, with voters favoring Trump as the candidate they believed could best address it. Kennedy emphasized that polls also clearly demonstrated widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden administration and concerns about the nation’s trajectory.

However, Vice President Harris struggled to establish a clear distinction from the Biden administration during her brief presidential campaign.

“This election showcased that polls are now better at capturing the issues that resonate with voters, their motivations, and sentiments toward the candidates… but not as effective for making predictions,” Kennedy remarked.