WASHINGTON – Duane Canther, a 66-year-old union worker in Michigan who manufactures auto parts, voted for Republican Donald Trump in the presidential election. However, he chose to back Joe Solis-Mullen, the Libertarian candidate, in the closely contested Senate race.

Canther’s vote is one reason Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin managed to secure a win against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers for the Senate seat left vacant by Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s retirement. Slotkin triumphed by a slim margin of 0.4 percentage points, despite Trump having won Michigan by 1.4 points.

“I cast my vote to ensure I had a say. They always say if you don’t vote, you can’t complain,” Canther remarked on his choice.

“I thought both candidates were inconsistent on several issues,” he added, commenting on the Democratic and Republican contenders for the Senate.

Wisconsin showcased a similar trend, re-electing Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin over Republican Eric Hovde, even as it supported Trump for the presidency.

Will Borden, 32, also voted for Trump yet selected a third-party candidate for Senate rather than Hovde.

“I disagreed with many of Hovde’s policies,” Borden explained but expressed his discontent with both Baldwin and the Democratic Party as well.

“I don’t follow party lines. That seems foolish to me,” he stated. “It’s crucial to be informed when you vote.”

Voters like Borden and Canther, who split their tickets, played a part in Trump winning states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina, where he emerged victorious while Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein captured the governorship. Trump is also projected to win in Nevada and Arizona, although those results have yet to be officially declared. In those same states, Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen and Representative Reuben Gallego are ahead of their Republican contenders.

However, there were notable exceptions. Republican candidates unseated incumbent Democratic Senators Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, all of whom outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris in their respective states.

While the trend of ticket splitting has diminished in an increasingly polarized political landscape, these swing-state results indicate that split-ticket voting can still significantly influence the outcomes of critical races.

“Presidential and Senate races still have distinct differences,” noted Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “These differences have tended to favor the Democrats in these states.”

Distance from Biden

The successful Democrats in these pivotal states focused on separating themselves from President Joe Biden, whose approval ratings have remained low for an extended period. They promoted their own independent messages tailored to resonate with local constituents.

In Arizona, for instance, Gallego openly addressed the challenges faced by border communities and stressed the importance of securing the southern border, a critical concern in the region. Rosen in Nevada highlighted her bipartisan efforts to enhance the state’s infrastructure. Baldwin in Wisconsin prioritized policies beneficial to farmers and rural communities, while Slotkin in Michigan underscored her commitment to supporting American manufacturing.

Experts have differing opinions on how voters who split their tickets are making their selections. Some believe that many who supported Trump at the presidential level only backed Democrats for other races, or chose third-party options, as Borden and Canther did. Others argue that down-ballot Democrats attracted votes from Trump supporters by distinguishing themselves from the national Democratic Party.

“Senate candidates are frequently well-known to voters,” said Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, due to their vigorous campaigns and extensive advertising.

He argued that because voter turnout was similar for both presidential and Senate races in most places, this suggests that many voters are still splitting their tickets.

“In some regions, voters are clearly signaling their distinctions by indicating that a candidate does not align with Trump or does not represent his interests in the same way, or that a candidate prioritizes the state’s needs over others,” he explained. “This narrative can vary greatly from one state to another.”

Who are split ticket voters?

Split ticket voters were more prevalent during the 1970s and 1980s when there was greater ideological diversity between the two main political parties.

For instance, in 1984, although Republican President Ronald Reagan achieved a significant national victory, states such as Iowa, Oklahoma, and Tennessee still sent Democrats to the Senate. Similarly, despite President Bill Clinton’s successful re-election in 1996, Republicans were elected to the Senate from states that Clinton won, including Arkansas, Oregon, and Maine.

As the political parties have become more polarized, it has become increasingly difficult for voters to rationalize supporting candidates from both parties on the same ballot. Presently, Burden estimates that about 10% of voters are open to splitting their tickets.

Senators like Tester, Brown, and the retiring Joe Manchin from West Virginia, who will be succeeded by Republican Jim Justice, represent some of the last Senate Democrats from predominantly red states.

Political scientists note that split-ticket voters tend to be less involved, have limited knowledge of the candidates, lack strong party loyalty, and often make their voting decisions at the last moment.

According to Burden, “They are much more influenced by the individual candidates and their performance rather than by the typical Washington political style.”

Trump’s win was so broad that split-ticket voters didn’t necessarily tip the balance in his favor. Even without wins in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, or Arizona—where Democratic Senate candidates either won or are leading—Trump would still have secured the necessary 270 electoral votes to claim the presidency. If he had lost North Carolina, Harris would have emerged as the victor.

Splitting tickets is more frequently seen in gubernatorial elections compared to congressional contests. For instance, Larry Hogan, a Republican who governed the heavily Democratic state of Maryland from 2015 to 2023, lost his Senate seat to Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in the recent elections. The state also supported Harris in the presidential race.

Victories by Democratic Senate candidates can result in a modest Republican majority in the Senate, projected to range from 52 to 55 seats, or a more substantial majority that would facilitate surpassing the 60-vote requirement to advance legislation beyond a filibuster.

Burden states that ticket-splitters are “more casual voters,” but they often play a crucial role in the outcomes of the elections.