MLB Free Agent Forecast 2024: Where Will Soto, Bregman, and Alonso End Up?
The offseason of Major League Baseball is in full swing, with Juan Soto’s free agency being the center of attention.
At just 26 years old, Soto is one of the most remarkable players to enter free agency and is anticipated to secure a contract exceeding $600 million, potentially approaching Shohei Ohtani’s astonishing $700 million deal from last winter. After playing with the Yankees in 2024, they remain the frontrunners to retain him.
Alongside Soto, the free agent class for 2024-25 includes notable Cy Young winners Blake Snell (Giants) and Corbin Burnes (Orioles), as well as third baseman Alex Bregman (Astros), first baseman Pete Alonso (Mets), and 2022 Cy Young runner-up Max Fried (Atlanta).
Here’s how the MLB writers and editors from YSL News Sports predict the top free agents will land:
Juan Soto
∙ Bob Nightengale: Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays have a surplus of cash available, and with the Yankees sticking to their initial proposal, the Blue Jays might swoop in to secure Soto for a massive $630 million over 14 years.
∙ Gabe Lacques: New York Yankees – The choice is between giving him a five-hundred million dollar contract or trying to find a substitute, which is nearly impossible with the current market and the minor leagues.
∙ Steve Gardner: New York Yankees – Soto is expected to weigh all offers while his agent Scott Boras does his due diligence. However, given Soto’s impressive performance at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees can’t afford to let him go, and he is likely to enjoy that advantage at home for years to come.
∙ Scott Boeck: New York Yankees – While Soto indicated he was open to all offers post-World Series, only a handful of teams have the financial capability to compete. The Bronx, especially with its short porch, appears to be the perfect match for him.
∙ Jesse Yomtov: New York Yankees – A reunion with the Yankees seems logical, allowing Soto to join Aaron Judge for potentially seven more shots at a World Series title.
Blake Snell
∙ Bob Nightengale: San Francisco Giants – Although he was hesitant to sign with them last year, circumstances have changed. Following a stellar second half, the Giants are eager to acquire him. It may not be Seattle, his hometown, but it’s close.
∙ Gabe Lacques: San Francisco Giants – With busy plans ahead, the new management under Buster Posey needs to show the fans they are committed, and they have the financial resources to make it happen.
∙ Steve Gardner: San Diego Padres – A second stint in San Diego remains a strong possibility. He previously secured a Cy Young with the Padres, and they could be just a key signing away from surpassing the Dodgers, making a lefty addition crucial.
∙ Scott Boeck: San Francisco Giants – As a two-time Cy Young Award winner, he found his stride with the Giants after a rocky start to 2024. They need to secure him before spring training, or risk him signing elsewhere.
∙ Jesse Yomtov: Los Angeles Angels – After showing interest in Snell last year, perhaps the Angels will commit to a multi-year deal this time around, eyeing a resurgence in their rivalry with the Athletics for a better position in the AL West.
Corbin Burnes
∙ Bob Nightengale: Chicago Cubs – Given that his former boss from the Brewers is now with the Cubs, it seems like an ideal fit for Burnes to reunite.
Why not have him join Craig Counsell and share the experience of being disliked in Milwaukee? Staying at home in Phoenix during spring training may be too tempting to ignore.
∙ Gabe Lacques: New York Mets – With three starting players heading into free agency, the Mets have the option to spend decent amounts on unpredictable replacements, or invest significantly in what seems to be the safest option available this offseason.
∙ Steve Gardner: New York Mets – After losing out on acquiring Soto, the Mets will shift their focus to pitching. Burnes stands out as the next prominent player available and will offer the reliability and endurance they urgently require, especially since last year’s main starters, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, are also entering free agency.
∙ Scott Boeck: New York Mets – The Mets are expected to pursue Burnes as their ace instead of Snell. Unfortunately for the Orioles, billionaire owner Cohen will likely outbid them and other teams for his services.
∙ Jesse Yomtov: New York Yankees – Following Gerrit Cole’s strange opt-out situation, the Yankees should strongly consider adding another reliable player to the rotation. The former Cy Young winner is the safest option among the available top pitchers this offseason, and acquiring him from the Orioles would boost competition in the always-tough AL East, putting Baltimore’s new ownership at a disadvantage.
Alex Bregman
∙ Bob Nightengale: New York Yankees – Bregman has always enjoyed being in the limelight, dreaming of showcasing his talents on a grand stage; and what could be bigger than New York? With both New York teams interested, it looks like the Yankees will ultimately secure his services.
∙ Gabe Lacques: Washington Nationals – Jim Crane might stretch beyond his comfort zone and allow another key player to leave Houston. Bregman could serve as a seasoned leader for a promising team seeking direction.
∙ Steve Gardner: Houston Astros – Is there any realistic chance that the Astros would let Bregman go? Teammates and fans are eager for his return, and it would be unwise for him to leave Houston, where his ability to hit home runs is perfectly suited for the Crawford Boxes in left field.
∙ Scott Boeck: Houston Astros – It’s tough to envision Bregman, a key figure in the franchise, leaving after nine seasons. But it’s worth noting, Houston did let All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa go.
∙ Jesse Yomtov: New York Mets – Boras has mentioned the chance of Bregman playing second base, which opens up the Mets as potential contenders since the NL runners-up already have Mark Vientos firmly set at third base. Bregman, now 30, is coming off the least successful season of his career, and where he ends up in 2025 might largely depend on the outcomes of Soto’s pursuit.
Pete Alonso
∙ Bob Nightengale: Seattle Mariners – Alonso realizes that the Mets never truly intended to bring him back, instead favoring Christian Walker. The Yankees are also hesitant. As a result, Alonso might unexpectedly end up with the Mariners, wondering if he should have accepted a trade offer from the Mets last summer.
∙ Gabe Lacques: New York Mets – After earning $20.5 million, a jump into the 30s salary range won’t surprise anyone. Missing out on Soto makes the team eager to maintain its identity.
∙ Steve Gardner: New York Mets – The Polar Bear is cherished by fans in Queens, especially after playing a key role in leading the Mets to the NLCS. While they need more pitchers, they can’t afford to alienate their energized fanbase.
∙ Scott Boeck: New York Mets – Despite the ups and downs of his tenure in Queens, the Mets must retain Alonso and give him the compensation he deserves.
∙ Jesse Yomtov: New York Mets – As one of the most favored players in the history of the Mets, Alonso doesn’t carry the same value for other teams. He would be a significant asset for teams seeking power or a first baseman, but it’s hard to imagine Cohen allowing him to leave if the Mets fail to win the Soto bid.
Max Fried
∙ Bob Nightengale: Baltimore Orioles – There are significant concerns regarding his arm injury, as many large-market teams are wary. The Orioles need a pitcher and are likely to replace Burnes with him.
∙ Gabe Lacques: Seattle Mariners – In search of offensive boosts, they may consider trading away one or two top young pitchers and bringing in Fried as a budget-friendly solution compared to Snell or Burnes.
∙ Steve Gardner: Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles have a low budget and are in need of a top-tier pitcher to truly contend for the World Series. Keeping Burnes or acquiring Snell would be expensive, so they might look to Fried. A left-handed pitcher suits their needs well due to the spacious left field at Camden Yards, despite Fried’s preference for inducing ground balls.
∙ Scott Boeck: Los Angeles Dodgers – Fried has proven himself as an elite pitcher in Atlanta, but the Dodgers have the financial resources to pursue big names. He would make a great addition alongside Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani once he returns to pitching.
∙ Jesse Yomtov: San Diego Padres – Drafted by San Diego originally and traded to the Braves for Justin Upton in 2014, the Southern California native would be well-suited for the Padres, especially with Joe Musgrove out for 2025 due to Tommy John surgery.