President-elect Donald Trump has numerous reasons to celebrate his electoral win, and one more starkly stands out: he might avoid sentencing for his criminal convictions in New York.

Several factors contribute to this potential outcome, including the political turmoil that may arise from a sentencing and newfound legal strategies available to him as the president.

“The chances of him going to prison are virtually nonexistent right now,” said Mark Bederow, a criminal defense attorney from New York City and a former prosecutor. “He won’t be doing community service or any similar penalties either—it’s just not feasible.”

On May 30, Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts related to falsifying business records to conceal payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels, aiming to keep her quiet about alleged actions during the 2016 presidential race. His sentencing could result in anything from no punishment to community service or jail time.

Before Election Day, Trump already had a potential escape route from sentencing, which is set for November 26. He claims that some evidence presented in his trial conflicts with the presidential immunity ruling from the Supreme Court released in July, arguing that his convictions should be overturned.

Manhattan Judge Juan Merchan is expected to decide on this argument on Tuesday, but now that Trump has been elected, he may introduce new justifications for modifying the proceedings. Trump has previously attempted to transfer the case from Merchan to federal court, arguing that federal venues are better equipped to handle the legal questions at hand. He has tried this approach before—in September—but was unsuccessful, though he could reassert it after his election.

A representative for the Trump campaign, Steven Cheung, expressed to YSL News that Trump’s election showcases an overwhelming public desire for change. He stated, “The American people have clearly signaled their wish for an end to the misuse of our justice system, enabling us to unite the country and work collaboratively for a better future, as President Trump asserted in his victory speech.”

The Manhattan District Attorney’s office, led by Alvin Bragg, did not provide a comment on the matter.

In addition to this case, Trump also faces criminal charges in two federal matters and one case in Georgia, although one federal case is pending an appeal after being dismissed, and the Justice Department is considering dropping both federal cases due to Trump’s recent electoral win.

Here are five reasons Trump might escape sentencing:

Reason No. 1: Supreme Court provided a possible rescue

The Supreme Court’s ruling from July 1 concerning presidential immunity in Trump’s federal election interference case includes a section that could impact the New York convictions.

According to five of the six justices appointed by Republicans—excluding Justice Amy Coney Barrett—a jury in a criminal case against a former president should not be allowed to consider certain types of evidence related to official presidential actions.

Trump argues that even if the hush money payments and the alterations to business records are not classified as official presidential actions, some evidence presented in his indictment and subsequent convictions contradicts the Supreme Court’s directive. For instance, Trump challenges the testimony of Hope Hicks, his former communications director, regarding events that occurred during his presidency.

If Trump fails to convince Judge Merchan, he could seek a review of Merchan’s decision by an appellate court before any sentencing occurs.

Mitchell Epner, a litigator based in New York and a former federal prosecutor in New Jersey, speculated that the November 26 sentencing date is likely to be removed from the schedule based on this development.

There are concerns about the immunity issue, even if Judge Merchan makes an unfavorable ruling for Trump.

He mentioned that the Supreme Court’s decision is likely to make both Merchan and an appellate court hesitant to proceed with sentencing before an appeal has been fully resolved. Moreover, Trump can reference other cases, including those involving police, where appeals related to immunity are usually allowed to be processed before any trial occurs.

Robert McWhirter, who sought the Democratic nomination for Arizona attorney general in 2022 and authored a book about the U.S. Constitution, expressed uncertainty about the situation. According to New York criminal procedure rules, defendants have to file their appeals within 30 days of their sentencing.

“I believe there must be a final sentencing,” he stated.

Reason No. 2: Political Repercussions

Sentencing Trump while he is president-elect could spark significant political turmoil.

This may not be a conventional legal argument, but it’s a factor that Merchan and appellate courts will likely take into account, according to Bederow.

“I think any judge would have a hard time overlooking the massive reality that this individual was overwhelmingly selected to be the next president,” Bederow noted. “If (Merchan) were to proceed with sentencing, it could further destabilize this country.”

Reason No. 3: Legal Challenges due to Election

Trump’s recent election win gives him fresh legal arguments against sentencing. The Supreme Court’s stance on presidential immunity raised concerns about judicial actions conflicting with presidential duties. The court specified that a president cannot be prosecuted for official actions unless it does not risk infringing on the Executive Branch’s authority and functions.

While the Department of Justice warns against prosecuting a sitting president, this guideline does not apply to state courts in New York.

Trump could contend that similar considerations relate to a state court that intends to sentence a president-elect or to impose a penalty that would extend beyond his inauguration on January 20. The legal theory is that, based on the U.S. Constitution, authority is allocated between the federal government and the states, and states should not overstep their bounds.

Legal scholars are divided on whether the concerns regarding state court overreach would only be relevant after Trump’s inauguration, or whether they might be considered by Merchan or an appellate court sooner.

Reason No. 4: Potential for New Trial Issues

If Trump manages to have his convictions overturned and is protected from prosecution during his next presidency, Manhattan prosecutors might pursue a retrial later on. However, at that stage, Trump could argue that trying him again would violate his due process rights, given that evidence and witness accounts may have deteriorated over time.

“When there is a lengthy delay between the first and a potential second trial, defendants often argue that a fair trial cannot take place because witnesses’ recollections can fade and some may no longer be alive,” Epner explained.

Reason No. 5: Aging Factor

If Trump’s convictions remain unchanged over time but he is subjected to sentencing years later, his age could benefit him. Catherine Christian, a former Manhattan prosecutor, remarked in a pre-election interview that even Trump’s current age could work in his favor during sentencing.

“This might affect his public persona, but he is 78 years old, and for someone of that age with no previous criminal history, the court is likely to consider that,” Christian expressed.

By the end of his forthcoming four-year term, Trump could be 82.

“Even in instances where someone has run away from prosecution, there is a point in age when they are often not subjected to severe penalties, and Trump is certainly not in the position of a fugitive,” Epner observed.

In summary, these factors significantly favor Trump, who will soon resume his role as president.

“The dynamics of the situation have fundamentally shifted since Tuesday,” Bederow noted. “Trump is now in a much more advantageous position both in terms of public perception and potential escape from this situation.”