The likelihood of intelligent life arising in our Universe, and potentially in other theoretical universes, can be estimated using a new theoretical framework reminiscent of the well-known Drake Equation. This equation was developed by American astronomer Dr. Frank Drake in the 1960s to assess the number of extraterrestrial civilizations that could be detected within our Milky Way galaxy. Now, over 60 years later, researchers from Durham University have introduced a new model focusing on the impact of the Universe’s accelerated expansion and the quantity of stars that form.
The likelihood of intelligent life arising in our Universe, and potentially in other theoretical universes, can be estimated using a new theoretical framework reminiscent of the well-known Drake Equation.
This equation was developed by American astronomer Dr. Frank Drake in the 1960s to assess the number of extraterrestrial civilizations that could be detected within our Milky Way galaxy.
Now, over 60 years later, researchers from Durham University have introduced a new model focusing on the impact of the Universe’s accelerated expansion and the quantity of stars that form.
This expansion is believed to be fueled by a mysterious force known as dark energy, which constitutes more than two-thirds of the Universe.
What is the calculation?
Since stars are essential for the emergence of life as we know it, this model can be utilized to gauge the potential for intelligent life to develop in our Universe and in various hypothetical universes.
The new research does not aim to calculate the exact number of intelligent beings in the universe but rather evaluates the likelihood of a randomly selected observer existing in a universe with certain characteristics.
The findings suggest that a typical observer would likely exist in a universe with a significantly higher density of dark energy compared to our own, indicating that our Universe is a unique and rare scenario within the multiverse.
The methodology in the research involves analyzing the proportion of ordinary matter that has been converted into stars throughout the entire timeline of the Universe and across different dark energy densities.
The model estimates this fraction to be around 27% in a universe that best facilitates star formation, compared to 23% in our own Universe.
This implies that we do not reside in the theoretical universe with the highest likelihood of generating intelligent life. In other words, the dark energy density we observe in our Universe does not maximize the chances of life, according to the model.
Dark energy’s impact on our existence
The lead researcher, Dr. Daniele Sorini from Durham University’s Institute for Computational Cosmology, stated: “Grasping the nature of dark energy and its influence on our Universe poses one of the most significant challenges in cosmology and fundamental physics.
“The factors that define our Universe, including dark energy density, might elucidate our very existence.
“Interestingly, we discovered that even a considerably greater dark energy density would still allow for life, suggesting that our Universe may not be the most likely scenario for life to exist.”
This new model could enable scientists to investigate how varying dark energy densities influence the formation of cosmic structures and the conditions necessary for life to emerge in the Universe.
Dark energy accelerates the Universe’s expansion, balancing gravitational forces and enabling both expansion and structure formation to coexist.
However, for life to arise, there must be areas where matter can coalesce to form stars and planets, which must remain stable for billions of years to permit the development of life.
Importantly, the research indicates that the astrophysics of star formation and the evolution of the Universe’s large-scale structures interact intricately to establish the ideal dark energy density required for producing intelligent life.
Co-author Professor Lucas Lombriser from Université de Genève remarked: “It will be thrilling to utilize this model to explore life’s emergence across various universes and to determine if some fundamental inquiries about our Universe need reevaluation.”
Drake Equation explained
Dr. Drake’s equation served as more of a guideline for scientists on how to pursue the search for life, rather than a precise calculative tool aimed at yielding exact figures.
The elements in his equation included the annual rate of star formation in the Milky Way, the proportion of stars that host planets, and the number of planets potentially capable of supporting life.
In contrast, the new model connects the annual rate of star formation across the Universe with its essential components, such as the previously mentioned dark energy density.
This study received funding from the European Research Council and involved contributions from scientists at Edinburgh University and Université de Genève.
