A new research study indicates that achieving the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is still feasible; however, certain countries need assistance to fulfill their climate obligations. The study introduces a concept known as “additional carbon accountability,” which uncovers that the EU along with 17 other nations must surpass their existing climate targets to meet this overarching global aspiration.
It remains possible to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, but support is necessary for some countries to fulfill their climate obligations. A recent study has introduced an “additional carbon accountability” measure, which shows that the EU and 17 other nations must enhance their current targets to achieve this crucial goal.
A new study published in Nature Communications finds that while limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is achievable, certain nations need aid in meeting their climate responsibilities. The introduction of the “additional carbon accountability” measure shows that the EU and 17 other nations will need to surpass their current goals to reach this global target.
This study proposes a new measure, additional carbon accountability, which assesses each country’s duty toward reducing carbon emissions and enhancing carbon dioxide removal beyond achieving their respective goals. This additional accountability includes securing funding for carbon removal or emissions reductions taking place outside their own borders.
At the ongoing 29th annual UN Climate Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, a key issue is how to shift away from fossil fuels and accelerate efforts to combat climate change in alignment with the 1.5C global warming target. The research conducted by teams from Stockholm University, Chalmers University of Technology, and Uppsala University provides insights into how much each country should reduce or eliminate carbon dioxide emissions beyond their current commitments.
“This article aims to show ways to promote climate equity and bridge the mitigation gap that exists in reality, as framed by the Paris Agreement,” explains the lead author, Thomas Hahn, from the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University.
The research calculates each nation’s fair share of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5C target, based on an equitable per capita distribution of historical emissions since 1990 and the remaining carbon budget. This is then compared to each country’s existing carbon debt and future emissions targets to create the additional carbon accountability measure.
The analysis pinpoints 18 high-income and upper-middle-income nations that are expected to increase their commitments to comply with their fair per capita share of the global carbon budget for 1.5 °C. (It’s important to note that the EU is treated as one entity in this analysis.) Additional carbon accountability is notably highest for the United States and China, with the highest per capita figures for the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States itself.
“Though there is no consensus on how to put the fairness principles of the Paris Agreement into practice, this new measure is a crucial tool to clarify the obligations regarding the remaining mitigation gap amidst ongoing climate negotiations,” remarks co-author Johannes Morfeldt from the Physical Resource Theory Department at Chalmers University of Technology.
Overall, high-income countries carry significant carbon debts, while many upper-middle-income nations are projected to produce high levels of future emissions. Four out of the identified 18 countries could theoretically meet their accountability through stricter domestic emission reductions.
“Fourteen of these eighteen nations exhibit greater accountability than their planned future emissions, indicating that they need to boost their efforts in carbon dioxide removal, in addition to implementing stricter emissions reductions,” points out co-author Ingo Fetzer from the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University.
For instance, in addition to achieving its 2030 reduction target and reaching net-zero by 2050, the EU is required to eliminate an additional 48 billion metric tonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide or finance reductions beyond its existing targets in other nations. In the cases of China and the USA, their additional carbon accountability stands at 150 Gt and 167 Gt, respectively.
“Our findings indicate that the EU must urgently raise its climate targets, mechanisms, and financing to shoulder its fair share of the global carbon budget as stipulated by the Paris Agreement,” asserts co-author Mikael Karlsson from the Climate Change Leadership Department at Uppsala University.
The findings reveal that financial capability varies greatly. Several nations in the BRICS+ group, particularly Iran and Russia, may find it challenging to fulfill their additional responsibilities compared to G7 countries.
“Our results emphasize that achieving the 1.5C target largely depends on major historical emitters such as the EU and the USA addressing their resultant carbon debts, alongside countries with ambitious future emission plans, like China and Iran, adopting stricter reduction commitments,” adds co-author Robert Höglund.
