Dabo Swinney can no longer ignore that things aren’t working at Clemson. But is he ready to adapt?
Throughout the last three seasons at Clemson, there have been critical moments where the need for change has become glaring.
Nevertheless, Dabo Swinney continues to push ahead, navigating through evident issues with a strong resolve as a coach.
Between 2015 and 2020, Clemson lost just seven games, clinched two national titles, and played for two more. However, since the transfer portal was introduced in 2021, Clemson has lost 12 games and hasn’t made it back to the College Football Playoff.
Unlike other FBS programs that utilize the transfer portal to boost their teams, Clemson has not.
This isn’t hard to understand.
“We discussed how amazing it would be to finish 7-1 in our league,” Swinney remarked earlier this week. “We set ourselves up well. Last year, that wasn’t the case.”
How’s that for making progress and raising expectations?
Once a powerhouse in the College Football Playoff era, Clemson is now aiming to finish third in the ACC.
If the Tigers can manage to beat Pittsburgh this Saturday — a significant IF — the most they can hope for this season is to watch two other teams compete for the ACC championship.
Miami, one of those competing teams, has yet to claim an ACC title. Meanwhile, SMU joined the league for a hefty $100 million just last year after flirting with various Group of Five conferences for many years.
And here sits Clemson, struggling to regain its past accolades in the CFP amidst the ongoing challenges.
The current talent pool at Clemson doesn’t measure up to what it was during the initial College Football Playoff years, when the Tigers were formidable competitors like Alabama. Whether due to recruitment errors or player development, Clemson has been falling short in significant games against teams with stronger rosters.
This trend has been clear since 2021, marked by the NCAA’s shifts toward the transfer portal, NIL, and free player movement, which collectively altered the landscape of college football — except at Clemson.
There’s a chance that things could turn around; perhaps Clemson defeats Pitt, and if Miami or SMU falters in another league game, the Tigers could make it to the ACC championship game and even win, potentially reviving their CFP prospects and stalling any need for change.
But honestly, that might be the worst possible outcome.
The issues faced now extend beyond losses to North Carolina State and Pittsburgh in 2021, or a defeat from a struggling South Carolina team in 2022, or even a humbling defeat to Tennessee with a backup quarterback.
This is about more than the shocking 21-point defeat to Duke at the start of the much-anticipated 2023 season and losing three additional ACC games thereafter.
It’s more than failing to secure a five-star quarterback recruit or the challenges of replacing successful assistant coaches.
The issue is deeper — it’s about philosophy. There lies a clear solution to Clemson’s most pressing problem: the deficiency of game-changing talent on both sides of the field — yet Swinney seemingly disregards it.
It’s important to acknowledge that Swinney excels in his role. He is highly skilled at coaching and player development, and he invests deeply in athletes’ futures well beyond football.
He embodies the traits one seeks in a college football coach. However, his avoidance of the transfer portal is undermining his legacy.
It’s easy to point out the absence of figures like Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence — and that observation holds weight. Yet there’s a lot more at stake here.
Since 2020, Clemson hasn’t had a receiver capable of consistently winning matchups on the outside and putting defensive game plans under pressure. The once-dominant defensive line, a pillar of the Swinney era, is no longer imposing its will in games.
The tough, underrated recruits from previous years, the overachievers like Hunter Renfrow, James Skalski, and K’Von Wallace, are not being developed to the same extent now.
A potential solution is available for Swinney — it’s not the only fix, but it’s right in front of him. Coaches like Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Jim Harbaugh, and Ryan Day have all successfully incorporated the transfer portal into their strategies to remain competitive for national titles since its inception.
While there are valid concerns about locker room dynamics and over-reliance on portal players, this isn’t about making drastic changes.
This isn’t about TCU’s quick drop from playing in the national championship game to becoming an afterthought in the Big 12, or Florida State’s fall from winning 19 in a row to losing 10 of 11.
This is more akin to Saban’s additions of Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams, or Harbaugh welcoming experienced offensive linemen, or Day bringing in standout players like Caleb Downs and Quinshon Judkins.
It’s about acknowledging mistakes in high school evaluations (or player development) and finding a temporary solution. A small number of key players could be the deciding factor in whether Clemson returns to the CFP or suffers another defeat at home to a respectable Louisville team.
“That was an awful performance,” Swinney remarked following the disappointing game against Louisville.
Now, we’re at yet another crucial moment. This Saturday, we’ll see how the Clemson offensive line handles the pressure from Pitt’s pass rush, and whether the Clemson receivers can outperform their defenders in one-on-one situations.
The Clemson coaching staff is aware of Panthers’ coach Pat Narduzzi’s tendency to apply pressure on quarterbacks and compel them to make quick decisions. The game will largely depend on Clemson QB Cade Klubnik, who has only completed 54% of his throws and has faced being sacked six times over the past two weeks against the tough defenses of Louisville and Virginia Tech.
The offensive line needs to provide protection. The receivers need to win their battles. The quarterback must deliver swift and accurate decisions.
These have been ongoing issues since 2021—same challenges that could hinder Clemson from achieving a spot in the College Football Playoff for the fourth straight season.
These are the very concerns Swinney expressed regret over two weeks ago, when Clemson fans left Death Valley early to avoid traffic.
“We believe we’ve disappointed many people, but that’s part of college football,” Swinney said. “We can’t change our past.”
However, there is a strategy for a brighter future. Perhaps it’s time to embrace this approach.