Arizona State is one game away from potentially securing a spot in the College Football Playoff, marking an impressive turnaround.

After finishing with a 3-9 record last season, the Sun Devils were expected to come in last in their inaugural Big 12 season. Contrary to expectations, they have now seized the top spot in the conference with a four-game winning streak. Their upcoming game against Arizona for the Territorial Cup is not just about state pride; a victory could mean the conference title and a chance at the College Football Playoff.

The Big 12 is currently unpredictable, with nine teams still in contention for the conference championship next week. Amidst this potential chaos, Arizona State has one of the simpler pathways to secure a game at AT&T Stadium.

What does Arizona State need to reach the Big 12 championship game?

Heading into Week 14, Arizona State has a clear path to the Big 12 championship game: they must win against Arizona. If they do, and if the other four conference teams with a 6-2 record—Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado—all win, the Sun Devils are in.

However, there exists one scenario where Arizona State could win yet still miss the championship game. This involves a specific set of outcomes based on the Big 12 tiebreaker rules:

• Iowa State defeats Kansas State
• Colorado defeats Oklahoma State
• Houston defeats BYU
• Texas Tech defeats West Virginia
• Baylor defeats Kansas
• Cincinnati defeats TCU

Who could Arizona State face in the Big 12 championship game?

Things become a bit complex when considering potential opponents. Here’s how the matchups could shake out if Arizona State wins:

• If Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado all win: Arizona State plays Iowa State.
• If any two of Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado lose: Arizona State plays the remaining winner.
• If Iowa State and BYU win and Colorado loses: Arizona State plays Iowa State.
• If BYU and Colorado win and Iowa State loses: Arizona State plays BYU.
• If Iowa State and Colorado win, BYU loses, and West Virginia wins: Arizona State plays Iowa State.
• If Iowa State and Colorado win, BYU loses, Texas Tech wins, and either Baylor or Cincinnati lose: Arizona State plays Colorado.

Can Arizona State reach the Big 12 championship game with a loss?

If Arizona State loses to Arizona, there remains a slim chance for them to still make the conference championship game. For this to happen, both Colorado and BYU need to suffer losses, along with Iowa State.

Big 12 Week 14 schedule

Here’s a rundown of the upcoming games that could impact the Big 12 title race:

Friday

• Oklahoma State vs. Colorado, 12 p.m. ET, ABC

Saturday

• Kansas vs. Baylor, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2
• West Virginia vs. Texas Tech, 12 p.m. ET, FS1
• Arizona State vs. Arizona, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox
• TCU vs. Cincinnati, 6 p.m., ESPN+
• Kansas State vs. Iowa State, 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox
• Houston vs. BYU, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN