Back in early 2019 — prior to NIL contracts, the transfer portal, and a global pandemic — Clemson defeated Alabama, marking the first time a team finished a season 15-0 since Penn back in 1897.

Looking ahead, the expanded College Football Playoff may yield a national champion with an even more impressive record of 16-0 or 17-0. Achieving this would be an incredible feat, necessitating a perfect regular season followed by victories over three or four of the country’s top teams.

As we enter Week 6, 19 teams in the Bowl Subdivision are striving for greatness, with the leading quartet consisting of No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Ohio State, and No. 4 Tennessee according to the US LBM Coaches Poll.

Based on past performances, it’s likely that these unbeaten streaks will not endure for long. Here’s our educated guess on when each current unbeaten team might experience their first loss of 2024.

No. 1 Texas (5-0)

First loss: vs. No. 5 Georgia, Oct. 19.

Expect the Longhorns to comfortably defeat No. 17 Oklahoma on Oct. 12, especially given the current struggles of the Sooners’ offense. While hosting Georgia is an advantage, the Bulldogs are coming into October eager to bounce back from their recent loss to Alabama, aiming to finish the regular season with just one defeat.

No. 2 Alabama (4-0)

First loss: at No. 4 Tennessee, Oct. 19.

The Crimson Tide faces three consecutive ranked rivals, beginning with the Volunteers, followed by No. 9 Missouri at home, and then a matchup at No. 12 LSU. While Alabama could keep their undefeated record through this stretch, Tennessee stands out as a highly competitive team that can capitalize on playing at home in this intense rivalry.

No. 3 Ohio State (4-0)

First loss: Possibly during the postseason. (Maybe.)

The Buckeyes appear to be a powerhouse ready to tackle a challenging Big Ten schedule, including games against No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Penn State on the road. Both matchups could pose a challenge for Ohio State, as well as a game against No. 10 Michigan at the end of the regular season. However, the prediction is that the Buckeyes will go undefeated until the playoffs.

No. 4 Tennessee (4-0)

First loss: at Georgia, Nov. 16.

The Volunteers have another significant game in their SEC schedule. Although they may overcome Alabama at home, they are likely to fall to Georgia at Athens. The rest of their schedule looks manageable, and winning one of those two games should lead Tennessee to the conference championship and secure at least an at-large playoff spot.

No. 6 Oregon (4-0)

First loss: vs. Ohio State, Oct. 12.

Hosting the Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium is a significant advantage; however, Ohio State presents a unique challenge for a team still finding its footing in the Big Ten. Oregon’s chance to rematch in the Big Ten championship may depend on their performance during a road trip to Michigan on Nov. 2.

No. 7 Penn State (4-0)

First loss: vs. Ohio State, Nov. 2.

While there’s a potentially tricky game against No. 15 Southern California on Oct. 12 and a possible trap match at Wisconsin before facing the Buckeyes, it’s likely that the Nittany Lions will struggle against Ohio State, which has historically dominated this rivalry.

No. 8 Miami (5-0)

First loss: at No. 22 Louisville, Oct. 19.

No. 9 Missouri (4-0)

First loss: at Alabama, Oct. 26.

Missouri managed a double-overtime victory against Vanderbilt last time out. They could face their first setback as soon as this Saturday against No. 21 Texas A&M. If they emerge unscathed, they’ll likely be significant underdogs against Alabama later this month.

No. 16 Iowa State (4-0)

First loss: vs. Central Florida, Oct. 19.

The Cyclones could remain undefeated until they confront No. 18 Utah and No. 20 Kansas State in late November. UCF, despite a recent loss to Colorado, possesses the speed and running capability to challenge Iowa State in Ames.

No. 19 Brigham Young (5-0)

First loss: vs. Oklahoma State, Oct. 19.

BYU may have to fend off Arizona on Oct. 12, considering the Wildcats recently put up a solid performance against Utah. However, a loss is more likely against Oklahoma State a week later, especially if the Cowboys can get their running back Ollie Gordon back on track.

No. 23 UNLV (4-0)

First loss: vs. Syracuse, scheduled for Friday.

The Rebels had an impressive display against Fresno State with quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams stepping in for Matthew Sluka. Still, Syracuse presents a formidable challenge as a reputable Power Four team, possibly marking the toughest test yet for the Rebels. If they evade defeat on Friday, look for Boise State to potentially hand them a loss on Oct. 25.

No. 24 Indiana (5-0)

First loss: vs. Washington, Oct. 26.

Curt Cignetti’s Indiana team clearly possesses the firepower needed to overcome Northwestern and Nebraska, maintaining the program’s strongest start since 1967. The Huskies, with a record of 3-2, are more formidable than they appear and will present a significant challenge for Indiana, even on their home turf.

Army (4-0)

First loss: vs. East Carolina, Oct. 19.

Army has secured victories against three FBS teams, but they have a combined record of 4-11. Their upcoming opponents, Tulsa and Alabama-Birmingham, rank among the low-performing teams in the nation. So, how strong are the Black Knights? East Carolina seems to have bounced back from a poor start to the 2023 season and is on track for around seven wins during the regular season.

Duke (5-0)

First loss: at Georgia Tech, Saturday.

Duke has edged out wins against Northwestern, Connecticut, and North Carolina by just a total of 12 points, raising concerns that a loss may be imminent. This could happen as soon as Saturday when they face Georgia Tech, who is favored by about a touchdown.

James Madison (4-0)

First loss: vs. Coastal Carolina, Oct. 10.

James Madison had a slow start, but they have picked up momentum with dominant wins against North Carolina (70-50) and Ball State (63-7). Staying undefeated and making it to the playoffs is a real possibility for them. However, their upcoming matches against Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern are likely to be significant challenges on their path to potentially finishing 12-0.

Liberty (4-0)

First loss: vs. Western Kentucky, Nov. 23.

Liberty has faced only one notable opponent so far (East Carolina) and won’t have another significant challenge until they host Western Kentucky later in November. The Hilltoppers recently had a strong win against Toledo and a narrow loss to Boston College, suggesting they could achieve nine or more wins and aim for the Conference USA title game.

Navy (4-0)

First loss: vs. No. 13 Notre Dame (in East Rutherford, N.J.), Oct. 26.

Navy might face a tough game this weekend against Air Force due to the intense nature of this rivalry, although the Falcons have not been performing well in the past month. If Navy survives Saturday’s game, they are expected to pursue a victory over Charlotte before being faced with their seventh consecutive loss against the Fighting Irish.

Pittsburgh (4-0)

First loss: at North Carolina, Saturday.

Betting on North Carolina to win feels somewhat misguided, given their previous collapses against teams like James Madison and Duke. However, after narrowly beating Cincinnati (28-27) and West Virginia (38-34) recently, the Panthers are unlikely to remain undefeated, especially in what could prove to be a crucial game for North Carolina.

Rutgers (4-0)

First loss: at Nebraska, Saturday.

Similar to Pittsburgh, Rutgers had a fortunate victory against Washington last weekend, managing to win despite allowing 7.1 yards per carry and being outgained by over 200 yards. To triumph in Lincoln, they’ll need to capitalize on turnovers, but the Cornhuskers have successfully avoided mistakes so far, with only three turnovers after last year’s league-worst total of 31.