Alabama’s Playoff Inclusion Wouldn’t Be Surprising; It’s Just How Things Go
The College Football Playoff committee clearly states four main factors for ranking teams, which includes evaluating the strength of their schedule and direct matches.
However, there’s an unofficial rule that has emerged during the playoff’s history: Alabama consistently seems to gain the committee’s favor.
Did you really expect the committee to choose Miami, Mississippi, or South Carolina over Alabama for the last spot in a 12-team playoff? The “Script A” captivates the committee. The Alabama legacy prevails, even after suffering a 24-3 defeat against a team that ended the season with a 6-6 record.
It makes sense that Alabama could become the first three-loss team to enter the 12-team playoff. Who else could it possibly be?
Mississippi, which has a rich history but has never reached the SEC championship game? Not when it has to compete with a distinguished program like Alabama, sharing a 9-3 record.
Sorry, Rebels, you indeed had a strong showing against Georgia and South Carolina, and while you do feature script font on your helmets, there’s no “A” in Ole Miss.
Last year, the committee favored 12-1 Alabama over undefeated 13-0 Florida State, marking a rare occasion where an undefeated Power Four champion was excluded from the four-team playoff.
Furthermore, in 2017, Alabama and Ohio State became the only teams from a single conference ever to qualify for the playoff without winning their division. That Alabama team won the national championship, setting a precedent for future CFP committees to continue granting Alabama the benefit of the doubt.
This newest achievement would stand out as one of the most remarkable for Alabama, advancing to the playoff despite losses to two 6-6 teams, one being Vanderbilt.
ACC Championship Remains Important for CFP Selection
As of now, Alabama hasn’t finalized its playoff spot. In the committee’s recent rankings update, they placed Alabama at the 11 seed, marking the Tide for the last at-large position. However, this decision is not yet conclusive.
The committee could choose to allocate that final at-large spot to either SMU or Boise State if either team loses their respective conference championship games to Clemson or UNLV, respectively.
Currently, SMU is ranked three spots ahead of Alabama, while Boise State is just above the Tide as well.
However, SMU and Boise State will only feel secure if they win their conference titles and secure the automatic bids that come with them. Forget about the rankings: if SMU falters against Clemson in the ACC championship, do we think the committee would prioritize the Mustangs over Alabama?
Can you imagine CFP committee chair Warde Manuel justifying Alabama’s selection over SMU with a comment like, “While we acknowledge SMU’s 11 wins, let’s remember Alabama’s recent victory over Mercer.”
Alabama’s Playoff Selection Wouldn’t Be as Absurd as Last Year
In contrast to last season when Alabama controversially advanced over undefeated Florida State, primarily due to injuries to the Seminoles’ quarterback and speculation about their potential playoff performance without him, this situation doesn’t carry the same level of absurdity. Florida State had just recently defeated Florida, even without their quarterback.
This time around, however, it is not nonsensical; it’s simply a clear case of Alabama climbing above other teams with flawed records.
There are valid arguments supporting Alabama’s position as the least unfavorable option. Listen to Manuel explain why Alabama deserves to be ranked ahead of the 10-2 Miami.
“Alabama has a record of 3-1 against top-25 teams, while Miami has not faced any,” Manuel noted on ESPN. “Alabama stands at 6-1 against teams with winning records, compared to Miami’s 4-2.”
This is undeniable. Alabama may not be the best choice; it’s just that better options are lacking. Alabama’s challenging schedule gives it an advantage compared to Miami and Ole Miss, both ranked right under Alabama.
Moreover, Mississippi lost at home to Kentucky, one of the weaker SEC teams, and Miami lacks a standout victory. This is part of the issue with expanding the playoff from four to twelve teams. More teams can lead to weaker at-large resumes and better appearances for 9-3 teams like Alabama.
Among this mixed group of hopeful teams, I would’ve leaned toward Ole Miss thanks to their impressive wins against Georgia and South Carolina. There’s no denying that playoff teams would fear facing the Rebels at their best, but they had their opportunities and fell short, so let’s not dwell on that.
What about another 9-3 contender, South Carolina? They lost to Alabama and faced a significant defeat at the hands of Ole Miss, disqualifying them from contention.
Unlike last year when a deserving, undefeated team was overlooked, this year it’s challenging to argue that anyone is being unfairly snubbed in a meaningful way.
Ultimately, this scenario has been anticipated.
Though it’s not explicitly stated in the CFP regulations, it has become clear: if the committee can find a way to select Alabama, it will.