Recently, threats of political violence, harassment, and insurrection have increased within online extremist circles, fueled by conspiracy theorists and those spreading misinformation.

Given the heightened tensions and aggressive rhetoric, experts who track domestic extremist behavior are bracing for what many anticipate could be a violent aftermath to the election, similar to the events of January 6. However, they emphasize that the details regarding how, where, or when such violence might occur remain uncertain, heavily depending on the election results.

According to over a dozen specialists in domestic violent extremism consulted by YSL News, they are actively monitoring online discussions and organizing efforts among extremists, observing how narratives develop, and identifying potential flashpoints. However, they pointed out that 2024 presents a different landscape compared to 2020, which may reduce the risk of political violence.

The groups that fueled the January 6 insurrection are largely disjointed, if not completely inactive, and have not been visible in public for years. Former President Donald Trump continues to attract crowds, but he has not organized significant protests since 2020. Additionally, discontented far-right individuals have not congregated publicly in the same manner as they did before the 2020 election, as noted by Megan Squire, the Southern Poverty Law Center’s deputy director for data analytics.

“I don’t observe large numbers of right-wing groups attending anti-mask, anti-vaccine, or neo-Confederate rallies; they aren’t exchanging contact information; they aren’t gathering at events to build trust; and I’m not seeing organized efforts to fundraise for protective gear and transportation,” Squire remarked. “It’s a vastly different environment.”

Is another January 6 on the horizon?

One potential outcome for political violence after the election is a recurrence of the severe events from January 6. However, experts believe that it is improbable that Washington D.C. will experience a repeat of the Capitol riot that resulted in one protester being killed by police and over 1,400 arrests.

Authorities in the nation’s capital are preparing for heightened vigilance regarding any plans for January 6, according to Colin P. Clarke, research director at the Soufan Group, a global intelligence advisory organization.

“The deterrent presence will be so significant that it would be foolish for anyone to attempt a mass gathering there,” Clarke stated. “While we have many foolish individuals in this country, I doubt it will be an organized effort capable of overpowering security measures like we witnessed in 2021.”

A more concerning scenario for those monitoring extremism may arise in the event of a close election, particularly if votes continue to be counted in the days following November 5.

Extremists and conspiracy theorists might target one or multiple local vote-counting locations in swing states, inciting frustrated Trump supporters to engage in civil disobedience or violence, warned Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism.

“If any escalation occurs, it will likely be due to delays in the election results,” Beirich explained. “This could lead angry MAGA supporters and possibly some extremist groups like white supremacists to rally at vote counting centers and claim fraud.”

Clarke shared a similar perspective.

He suggested that such incidents might unfold in several states, rather than being concentrated in the nation’s capital.

“Instead of facing a large-scale event akin to January 6, I am concerned that we could witness multiple smaller incidents at local polling places, potentially triggering a domino effect where individuals feel compelled to take action to ‘protect’ the election from theft,” Clarke remarked. “This would result in a gradual series of escalations rather than a single major event.”

Concerns Over Individual Acts of Political Violence

In addition to organized political violence, many experts on extremism are alarmed about the threat of isolated acts of violence committed by individuals from both the far left and far right in the aftermath of elections.

Jared Holt, a senior research analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, stated that those on the far right are particularly more prone to political violence following an electoral defeat, especially if Trump loses.

Holt highlighted that violent Trump supporters have been led to believe that they will ultimately be proven right due to Trump’s often aggressive rhetoric. Similar to how QAnon followers awaited a “storm” of justice against perceived enemies when Trump was in power, some conspiracy theorists are convinced that Trump will reclaim power and address long-standing corruption.

If Trump were to lose, particularly in a close race, these conspiracy-driven individuals may resort to violent actions, Holt warned.

“This movement conveys that their political opponents are not just different thinkers, but they pose an existential threat to their safety and well-being,” Holt explained. “Those holding such beliefs might feel compelled to act on them.”

Clarke warned that a similar response may occur from far-left activists if Trump wins, as they have expressed intentions to retaliate.

“Historically, violence from the left has been less lethal, but anarchists and anti-fascists have indicated that they would view a Trump presidency as a serious threat and are prepared to escalate their actions,” he noted.

Proud Boys and Oath Keepers: Less of a Threat

One consensus among extremism experts consulted by YSL News is that the prominent organizations involved in political violence leading up to and including January 6 have greatly diminished in influence and are unlikely to incite significant disturbances this year.

For instance, the Proud Boys gang has hardly been visible in public over the last two years. While some members have appeared at Trump rallies, the group seems to have dwindled, mostly existing now in obscure Telegram channels without the power it once wielded.

The Oath Keepers, once boasting thousands of current and former police officers and military personnel, have faced legal repercussions for their actions on January 6, leading to the group’s fragmentation. Experts monitoring armed far-right movements affirm that no other militias have emerged with the same impact as the Oath Keepers did previously.

Essentially, the landscape of extremism in 2024 is considerably different from what it was in 2020, according to Squire. This evolution demands that those monitoring these groups adapt their approaches and remain alert to what potential threats may arise in the near future.

“This doesn’t mean incidents can’t happen, but they are likely to manifest differently than in the past,” Squire added. “We should avoid relying on strategies from earlier events.”