First Down

The risk of knee-jerk reactions is apparent when predicting favorites and casually navigating the unpredictable landscape of college football’s regular season.

Just a week earlier, Notre Dame appeared to have a clear route to the College Football Playoff. Now, following a surprising 16-14 defeat to Northern Illinois, uncertainty looms over the program.

Only days ago, Irish quarterback Riley Leonard showcased resilience with a significant victory against Texas A&M, overcoming a tough defense led by his former coach, Mike Elko. Fast forward to a notably cool Saturday afternoon in South Bend, with Northern Illinois now on the field.

Leonard struggled, throwing two interceptions and averaging just one yard per carry, highlighting a disjointed Irish team — a stark contrast to their previous playoff-caliber performance.

When will we grasp the lesson?

This is what makes college football magnificent; its charmingly chaotic Saturdays remind us that sometimes desire trumps talent. Who has the greater hunger for victory?

On one side, a team of highly-rated recruits, coached by the ambitious Marcus Freeman, while on the other, a determined squad of MAC players led by the tough-hearted Thomas Hammock, who resembles more of a jovial coach than a tactical mastermind.

Emotions ran high as Hammock wiped tears from his eyes at Notre Dame Stadium, sharing heartfelt words about the players committed to hard work and listening to their coaches. He emphasized that football transcends NIL deals.

And indeed, it often does. The outcome frequently hinges on sheer willpower.

Take Northern Illinois quarterback Ethan Hampton, who threw for 198 yards and executed crucial runs, including a vital fourth-down conversion on the game-winning drive. Before this season, he had recorded only nine passing touchdowns against eight interceptions.

Consider running back Antario Brown, who lost his mother to gun violence when he was just 13. After an impressive season where he rushed for nearly 1,300 yards, he had options to join a Power Four school for a lucrative NIL deal.

Yet, he chose to stay loyal to the program that first recruited him, much like his high school decision to turn down offers from South Carolina.

Or take Hammock, a former star running back at NIU, who experienced a winding path through college football and the NFL before returning home as head coach in 2019. The administration backed him even after setbacks, including a disappointing three-win season in 2022.

Emotions spilled over as he celebrated this significant moment in his coaching journey, alongside cheering players who leaped into the stands to share their triumph with the loyal fans who made the trek to witness this milestone.

This is college football in its essence — it’s not merely about daily analyses or weekly overreactions, nor is it about predicting outcomes as if Notre Dame is invincible until faced with a team like Northern Illinois.

And let’s not overlook the substantial game-check of $1.4 million that comes with it. Thank you.

Second Down

Among the poor judgments made by college football administrators, there are certain pivotal mistakes that are driven more by emotion than logic.

Hiring a head coach should ideally stem from careful reasoning, but we often find ourselves amidst scenarios that highlight emotional judgment leading to unfavorable outcomes.

It all seems to stem from emotional bias during the hiring process, where factors like a “players’ coach,” “importance of continuity,” or “knowing what to expect” overshadow the necessity to find the most fitting coach for the job.

Speaking of questionable decisions, it might be prudent to consider giving Michigan coach Sherrone Moore an early notice regarding his future prospects.

Following Michigan’s substantial home defeat to Texas (which felt even more lopsided), Moore bears a striking resemblance to the struggles faced by Bobby Williams at Michigan State, or those of Randy Shannon and Manny Diaz at Miami, as well as Ron Prince at Kansas State and Matt Luke at Ole Miss.

These are just a few examples of assistant coaches who were thrust into the role of head coach when elevated within their institutions, only to find themselves overwhelmed by the pressure of being the main decision-maker.

Williams succeeded Nick Saban (who left for LSU), Shannon succeeded Larry Coker (who faced dismissal), Diaz succeeded Mark Richt (who retired), Prince followed Bill Snyder (retired), and Luke took over from Hugh Freeze (fired).

Out of this group, only Diaz, who now leads Duke, has received another shot at being a Power Five head coach.

Now, we find ourselves in a similar situation with Moore, who stepped in as interim coach last year during Michigan’s successful national championship season while Jim Harbaugh was suspended. However, he did so with a squad well-stocked with talent.

Over the years, Harbaugh has developed a team designed to excel in the 2023 season.

When Moore took charge, he faced significant challenges: finding a quarterback (he didn’t secure one from the transfer portal despite a wealth of options) and completely overhauling the offensive line and wide receiver group.

Following a lackluster opening victory against Fresno State, the Wolverines appeared outmatched against Texas. They managed just 284 yards of total offense—78 of which came during a final drive against Texas’s substitutes—converted only 3 of 12 on third downs, and committed three turnovers.

Moore seemed overwhelmed right from the start, especially when a controversial holding penalty wiped out a Texas touchdown, leading to the Longhorns missing a simple field goal.

It only got worse for Moore and Michigan as they suffered their first loss, ending several winning streaks: 16 overall wins, 23 home wins in a row, 28 consecutive victories in August and September, and 23 non-conference home games without a loss.

The Wolverines struggled on both offense and defense. Quarterback Davis Warren exhibited inconsistency in his second start, and the game plan failed to inspire. The traditionally strong run game, a hallmark of Harbaugh’s teams, managed only 80 yards on 23 attempts, totaling just 228 yards over the first two games. Meanwhile, the defense gave up nearly 400 yards before the Longhorns closed the game out in the fourth quarter.

“I appreciated our composure and ability to stay calm,” noted Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian after their victory.

It was a display of a focused team and coaching staff in a pivotal moment.

Third Down

Here we go again—another close game, another defeat for Arkansas.

This loss also raises the pressure on struggling head coach Sam Pittman.

If you need a reminder of what Arkansas football has looked like over the past two seasons, just rewatch their inability to secure a crucial road win against No. 16 Oklahoma State. Despite leading by 14 at halftime and by 8 in the fourth quarter, the Hogs couldn’t finish strong at Boone Pickens Stadium.

The game ended in double overtime, with Arkansas failing to convert a fourth-and-1 from the OSU 6. This marks the 15th loss by a single possession under Pittman since 2000. Fifteen.

They’ve lost games in every possible manner: from needing just one yard on a crucial fourth down to managing a stingy defense against Mississippi State yet losing 7-3 when Pittman expressed confusion about whether to attempt a long field goal or to punt.

There was also the missed opportunity for a game-winning field goal against Texas A&M when a kick struck the top of the upright—yes, the top. Last season, Arkansas endured three one-possession losses against Brigham Young, LSU, and Ole Miss while racking up 35 penalties.

The latest heart-wrenching defeat to Oklahoma State, where Arkansas maintained control for most of the second half, further highlights their issues with one-possession failures. It also emphasizes Arkansas’s struggle against power conference teams, as they’ve lost nine of the last ten matchups—the only victory being in overtime against Florida.

“I’ve had my share of success,” Pittman said in July. “I’m not worried about being labeled as a failure. Not at all. I’m not changing my approach just because of job insecurity.”

Fourth Down

It’s time for Shedeur Sanders to confront some harsh realities, and it must come from his father and coach, Deion Sanders.

It might be time to think about stepping away. From the season, that is.

This isn’t entirely serious, but consider the possibility—Shedeur Sanders, a talented quarterback set to potentially be a top five NFL draft pick, continues to absorb excessive punishment week after week while playing behind a poor offensive line.

Why endure unnecessary hits for what appears to be a three or four win season? What’s the purpose of this struggle?

Last season, the Colorado offensive line allowed a staggering 56 sacks, and after two games against North Dakota State and Nebraska, this year’s line appears even worse. Shedeur was brought down five times in the loss to Nebraska, with the potential for even more.

Why would Deion—whether as a coach or a father—subject Shedeur to this kind of treatment, knowing it could jeopardize his chances of being a top draft pick? In the waning moments of the game against Nebraska, Shedeur left the field with trainers.

The defeat was so severe that Nebraska coach Matt Rhule, speaking to NBC immediately after the game, expressed hope for Shedeur’s well-being. Although opting out of the entire season may seem too extreme, perhaps it would be wise to sit out games when the team is down by four touchdowns.

The Bracket

First Round Byes:

(1) Georgia, (2) Ohio State, (3) Miami, (4) Oklahoma State

First Round Matchups:

(12) Liberty at (5) Texas

(11) Penn State at (6) Alabama

(10) Missouri at (7) Oregon

(9) Southern California at (8) Ole Miss